The Long Shot Thread

In fairness to me, I was out all day from about 1pm and had 'done' about 10 races between Newcastle, Newmarket, Windsor and York (three winners plus five other places and only a very modest profit on the day!) so couldn't be arsed with the Curragh card as I knew I wasn't going to be seeing any racing at all. I didn't even look at the card and it was only when I saw Sovereign had won that it occurred to me that I might have backed it at Epsom. Had I been at home I might have ventured some sickness insurance on it knowing that was going to finish the day otherwise in front but such is life. I'm hearing there's some disquiet about how the other O'Brien horses were ridden.
 
First up for tomorrow:

Haydock 3.15 - Everything For You 50/1 - I'm not convinced this one was at its best behind the hot favourite here First Eleven at York and he's 7lbs better off for six lengths, in theory not enough but, as I say, I think there's better to come based on earlier form. He's a course winner and might have been prepared for this. He was visored for the first time at York but that bit of kit has been ditched in favour of his usual cheekpieces. Maybe the visor didn't work as hoped. On the balance of his form, he should probably be around the 14/1-16/1 mark so I'm happy to take a punt to small stakes but it won't be my main bet in the race.
 
I’ve gone for a couple today;

Blue De Vega @ 22/1 6 places in the opening Ascot handicap and Scarlett Dragon @ 25/1 6 places in the John Smiths (33s available 5 places)

I’ve also put them in an e/w trixie with Burnt Sugar for a repeat in the Bunbury Cup but at 14/1 he didn’t quite qualify for this thread.
 
Blue de Vega for me too. C&D winner from 3lb higher and a close up 3rd in the Epsom Dash staying on strongly at the finish


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AEOLUS 740H 33/1(25/1 4Places)

Used to be rated 108 at one time and finished 2nd in the stewards cup two years ago and ran well over 7f two runs ago when 6th beaten about 2L by Admirality with Lake Volta 3rd and is 8lb and 6lb better off today.heavy going when beaten last time.
Did once finished behind golden apollo and is 6lb better with him.
Both admirality and lake volta are rated 100 so do they want to get a penalty for 20g?
 
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wilsonl said:
I’ve gone for a couple today;

Blue De Vega @ 22/1 6 places in the opening Ascot handicap and Scarlett Dragon @ 25/1 6 places in the John Smiths (33s available 5 places)

I’ve also put them in an e/w trixie with Burnt Sugar for a repeat in the Bunbury Cup but at 14/1 he didn’t quite qualify for this thread.
Click to expand...

Have you noticed it is 66/1 bet365 for the stewards cup.
Win or lose that's MASSIVE
 
Couldn't predict if he'd win too confidently but Sinfonietta (Wolves 4:15) should never be priced at 66/1 for this.

He's dropped right down the ratings, changed trainer to Sophie Leech had landed a big priced winner the other day. His best form is all first time out, so he may just be able to grab a place tomorrow.

I will have an each way on.
 
I couldn't predict if he'd win too confidently but Sinfonietta (Wolves 4:15) should never be priced at 66/1 for this.

He's dropped right down the ratings to 75, changed trainer to Sophie Leech, who had a big priced winner the other day.

His best form is all first time out, so he may be able to grab a place after the 320 day absense.

I will have an each way on.
 
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https://www.racingpost.com/results/107/york/2018-05-17/699975


Last time Larchmont Lad ran in a handicap. He's a 7f horse so this was a good effort. He's 50/1 for the International on Saturday and a claimer takes 5 off so he's effectively running off 101. I backed him when he was 4th behind Limato lto (he is a bit of a cliff horse for me) when he disputed the lead. I reckon a strong pace over 7 will suit him.
 
I love a longshot and I think GALLIPOLI 555 is worth a £1 ew of anyone's money.
Let me put my case for the defence.
Victoria cup
1st Cape byron 103 now 113
2nd kynren 98 now 101
3rd kaeso 87 ...2nd off92
4th raising sand 103 then won off 103
5th ripp orf 95 4th 93 to RS
6th blue mist 97 3rd off 93 behind RS
7th kimifive 93 ran good 10th to RS
8th glorious journey 109 ..then 2nd 108
9th hanham 93 o'meara now off 88 (plot?)
10th Lake volta 98 now 100
11th quasar 93 now 89

12th Gallipoli 91 now 82 and Megan Nicholls,just had a winner as I type,claims 3lb.
Ran poor on g/f then on the a/w and then in a class 4 with 10st.
Richard Fahey said I'm afraid hes a law unto himself and is a very hard horse to win withbut we keep trying though hoping one day soon it all clicks again.
14th in the Victoria cup was Faheys ZAP which I've also backed but he is 10lb worse with gallipoli
The distances in the Victoria cup were
Nk,HD,11/4,1,HD,1,1/2,nk,nose,sh,11/2. So beat about 6L but is basically 12 lb lower.

Around about 66/1 is for me a decent price,just have to hope he got out the right side of his bed.
I've also done him 100/1 2 places and 20/1 10 places.
 
Well that didnt work out with a bad draw and being slow away,but the reason to back it was good so onwards and upwards.
 
Geometrical 7.10 curragh. 25/1. More of an each way selection (9 runners declared) as the fav is likely very good but this is well overpriced.
 
HawkWing said:
Geometrical 7.10 curragh. 25/1. More of an each way selection (9 runners declared) as the fav is likely very good but this is well overpriced.
Click to expand...

Got excited for 100 yards. Had him w/o the fav at 10s as well, so left with a neutral feeling all told. I'll take the place money.
 
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