The Long Shot Thread

swedish chef said:
Warwick 2.10 Nikap 40/1 small e/way - falls into the category of could be anything after showing great promise finishing 2nd in his first bumper race despite an awful ride. A race which has worked out well. The more rain the better and hopefully a professional jockey and hood can make a difference if he takes to hurdling?
Click to expand...

Good run in 4th Chef.one for hcaps methinks.
 
Perth 2.35 Darsi In The Park 33/1 - mininum bet e/way - very speculative on form shown but was a relatively expensive purchase and his form when winning a PTP looks reasonable. However is action looks ideal for heavy ground and if stable have sorted out any problems he could outrun his odds. May be wise to play on the machine to guarantee 3 places.
 
Downpatrick 1.35 Castle Kenny 20/1 small e/way - Probably wants further, rain would help and racing against the boys for the first time but has c/d form a nice weight and shows willingness under pressure.

Worcester 3.45 Roycano 20/1 small e/way - backing this on a gut feeling and it was in my tracker, so I feel I must of seen something about this horse.
 
Bangor 12.15 Best Director 40/1 - worth risking a minimum stake win bet(only 7 runners). Although 11yo he is relatively lightly raced and has had a 17 month break. However, he ran very well in his last race over c/d when he was 22lb out of the h'cap and races off his correct mark today with a 7lb claimer.
 
Shovel It On-7.15 Wolver, Has ran his best races over this C/D inc winning here in June, horse in 2nd won nto over C/D before winning hurdle at Stratford, ran 3rd lto again over C/D in a seller, won by a Fanshawe 3yo who Ellison bought for 10k afterwards, probably find 1 or 2 too good but hopeful of a place at 33/1, have covered at 20/1 1st 5 with 365 as well.
 
Ludlow 2.45 All Is Good 33/1 - Has run well twice over C/D In better grade races. Once over hurdles and the other over fences. Reverts back to hurdles and looks on a very fair mark with 10lb claimer aboard. If chasing hasn't blunted speed and horse is well, it would not be a surprise if he went close.
 
Despite the rain not hitting Newmarket as much as previously expected, Who Dares Wins seems way, way too big at 33/1 6 places for the Ces on Saturday.

Duly taken.
 
Have a sneaky feeling for one in the last 8.30Kempton.
Backed a horse a few weeks ago at 66/1 from this stable which came 2nd, btn on the nod, traded at 1.02 IR. They have another runner in Tulane currently drifting like the proverbial, has had just 2 runs back after an absence of a year and a half and ran a very decent race 1st time up, with lots of previous/since winners in and around it, maybe not quite as good lto but was on softer ground. Small stable has been doing fairly well lately with a winner over jumps last week and the 66/1 shot 2nd on flat late August and 4th again last week. Some of you will know me from betfair and i have 3 winners in 2 seperate yankees going on to this horse, but i have made a mistake of backing it with 1 bookmaker in the EW Extra market, which means i will be on at just 11/1 1st 4 rather than BOG 1st 3.
Some of you will know i generally back big priced horses but when i placed my bet as usual i was looking mainly at getting the places up hoping for a couple of winners, didn't expect them all to win or i'd have gone 1st 3 on this one, good luck if you have a little dabble.
 
Chepstow 1.15 Late Shipment 20/1 (25/1 BET365) small e/way has performed well over c/d and going - twice in better graded races and worth risking a small stake at the odds.
 
Down Royal 12.40 Sams Missile 66/1 (100/1 Betvictor) worth a minimum e/way punt as has some good flat form although stamina may be an issue.
 
3.35 Wincanton
Wicked Willy can throw in some stinkers but also runs some decent races and may have an each way chance here. 22/1 with Power paying 4 places(25/1 with Bet365 but only 3 places) worth a go


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
viking said:
3.35 Wincanton
Wicked Willy can throw in some stinkers but also runs some decent races and may have an each way chance here. 22/1 with Power paying 4 places(25/1 with Bet365 but only 3 places) worth a go


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The feared stinker it is


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Ffos Las 3.55 Her Nibs 25/1 ( 33/1 in places) taken 44.0 win & 8.4 place - small e/way. Trainer has had 3 runs with two horses in the UK 1st, 2nd & 3rd(at the festival) Trainer has good record in bumpers in Ireland with 5 wins & 5 places from 34 runners. This is no mean feat considering what he is up against. I have no idea if the horse is good enough, but the trainer does not appear to bring them over for the fun of it.
 
swedish chef said:
Ffos Las 3.55 Her Nibs 25/1 ( 33/1 in places) taken 44.0 win & 8.4 place - small e/way. Trainer has had 3 runs with two horses in the UK 1st, 2nd & 3rd(at the festival) Trainer has good record in bumpers in Ireland with 5 wins & 5 places from 34 runners. This is no mean feat considering what he is up against. I have no idea if the horse is good enough, but the trainer does not appear to bring them over for the fun of it.
Click to expand...


WOW 3/1 now - have laid of stake at 4.1 & 1.88 for a free bet.
 
Well done on beating the odds at least!

That was a very peculiar spectacle. The unbeaten Fry horse won like a good thing but I never get plunges on unraced horses given that what's shown at home doesn't necessarily translate to the track.
 
Sedgefield 2.20 The Honeydipper 25/1 - minimum win bet and stake saver 3 places on the machine.(7 runners)

The form of his bumper at Worcester is working out nicely

The 6th & 7th Israel Champ & Papa Tango Charly I believe were two of the most expensive recruits from the Irish PTP. Israel Champ won the Listed bumper at Cheltenham & Papa Tango Charly finished 2nd at Ascot in a maiden Hurdle splitting the Henderson pair. The 8th Benson won a bumper very easily.

However, I am confident the first 8, are horses to follow as they all quickened up off a steady pace except Israel Champ who needs to set a relentless gallop, but the 10th was beaten out of sight l/t/o. My selection finished 9th and because of the form of the race I can't let it go unbacked at 25/1 with a minimum stakes bet.
 
Southwell 1.00 Oregon Gold 28/1 small e/way - Is a c/d winner over hurdles and ran well when leading at this distance l/t/o in a stronger race before stamina issues kicked in over 3m on heavy. Having won over c/d off 100 (H) carrying top weight then followed up winning off 107 (H) he looks to be on a nice mark off 102 (CH) today. Should not be the outsider imo.
 
swedish chef said:
Southwell 1.00 Oregon Gold 28/1 small e/way - Is a c/d winner over hurdles and ran well when leading at this distance l/t/o in a stronger race before stamina issues kicked in over 3m on heavy. Having won over c/d off 100 (H) carrying top weight then followed up winning off 107 (H) he looks to be on a nice mark off 102 (CH) today. Should not be the outsider imo.
Click to expand...

Goes off 12/1 beats the odds-on fav, 2nd & 3rd favs comfortably and finishes 2nd to the new outsider :lol::nono:
 
Back
Top