The Long Shot Thread

Ayr gold and silver cup and a 1000-1 double.

Silver cup..I cant resist RAPID APPLAUSE 50/1 I put this in my notebook after it won a sprint in Ireland under hands and heels.
It eventually changed stables to mick easterby and it won a couple and has only had the one run this season,last month.
Of course they could have had problems with it but then again this could be a plan.whatever,50/1 is too big imo.

Ayr gold cup. INTISAAB too old? Maybe but he is well hcapped now and has a good 7lb claimer on.20/1
 
Have a sneaking fancy for Sir Thomas Gresham in the 3.55 listed race at Newbury. Impressed me on his 1st 2 wins as a late developing 3 yo late last year on soft ground, looked a big strong horse. Didn't seem to appreciate the AW afterwards and has been highly tried back on turf in 2 G3s, only just behind Brando and Equilateral in the 1st G3 off level weights, they are still rated 116 and 108. Then taken off his feet in the Palace house stakes behing real speedsters all rated between 103-112 and have won lots of sprints since. Came back after a 3 month break to run a decent 4th in a C1 listed at Newmarket over 6fs, should come on for that race. The problem is todays distance of 7fs, hasn't ran over this far before and tends to lead, however his 2 full siblings did. Agent Alison was btn just 3/4 length in the G3 Fred Darling over todays C/D and at a lower level Colonel Frank won over 7f/1m. His two half brothers both won over 7f/1m. Whether he can settle better is debateable but this race could be tacticle with Salute the Soldier also a front runner hoping to keep the fav at bay. Only Tabarrak well clear of him on ratings and i'm hoping he can get a place, possibly win at perhaps 50/1-66/1.
 
Ayr 2:00 KYLIE RULES never stopped improving since switching to Ruth Carr's stable. She won four races on the bounce earlier this season, before winning a another valuable handicap at Thirsk. She's gone up almost two stone in the ratings this season, about 25lb to be precise. As I said a few weeks ago, the geldings tend to win most of the handicaps, because a) most horses competing in handicaps are geldings, but also because b) there's a significant percentage of colts who improve a lot after the operation. Therefore for a filly or mare to mix it up in the top handicaps is always worth more than the bare rating. Kylie Rules fits the profile and I reckon she'll outrun odds of 20/1 each way here.
 
Last edited:
Thanks simmo was actually 100 on betfair when i posted this, i also backed it at that time at 50/1 EW 1st 4 at 365.

Don't think any members actually read it before the race but plenty of non members did. Seems rather daft to me that people who can't even post a "well done" are allowed to read what goes on here without having to make any contribution.
 
Simpson Jersey said:
Thanks simmo was actually 100 on betfair when i posted this, i also backed it at that time at 50/1 EW 1st 4 at 365.

Don't think any members actually read it before the race but plenty of non members did. Seems rather daft to me that people who can't even post a "well done" are allowed to read what goes on here without having to make any contribution.
Click to expand...

Yeah unfortunately I didn't see it till 1700!
 
I mentioned Merhoob (66/1) on the race thread during the week and I might go in again at 100/1 or for more places than the ante-post betting offered but he's slipped down my pecking order.

One who was always going to be right at the top is George Bowen (50/1 with more places to shorter odds) but he was only around 18/1 the other day as I recall. Obviously there's been no money for him, which is a concern, but if he's anywhere near his best it will take an exceptional performance to beat him. He has possibly been put away since the spring when he showed he was as good as ever. He’s come down 10lbs since then. Don’t be surprised if Kevin Blake who bred him tips him on TV this morning or at least suggests he likes his chances at a nice price.

There are more qualifiers than in midweek. Bacchus definitely is too long at 33/1 and I'll be stabbing one or two others as well.

As an aside, I don't often bet with Sportingbet but they are longest with every horse in the race although they're only going four places. I might not bother with places for my other bets and just go for the prices and have more running for me, as I often do in the National.
 
Good luck

Another worth a mention is Maid In India (Newbury 1:45), who worked his way up through the handicaps, and although latest wins came on soft or heavy, has plenty of proven form on good and good to firm too. The 20's has dissappeared, and the 16's is on its way out aswell.
 
Last edited:
Simpson Jersey said:
Thanks simmo was actually 100 on betfair when i posted this, i also backed it at that time at 50/1 EW 1st 4 at 365.

Don't think any members actually read it before the race but plenty of non members did. Seems rather daft to me that people who can't even post a "well done" are allowed to read what goes on here without having to make any contribution.
Click to expand...

I'll just quickly explain that :)

It used to be that the forums were pretty much private, you had to join to read anything. That was fine when the channel 4 forums first closed, as hundreds migrated over to here and TRF, and forums were still popular.
However, not being able to read forums is a massive negative on SEO and also attracting new members. It's hard enough these days to keep people posting, let alone getting someone to join when they can't see what they are joining, so the decision was made to open the forum up so non members could read and hopefully join.

It was discussed to have a private forum that only members, or members with a certain post count or length of membership, could access, but it was decided that all that would do would be create a clique of members that others would feel excluded from. Considering thats been mentioned more than once on here, we thought it best not to do that.

Hope that helps explain it :)
 
Thanks DVD, just that i noticed no members had been on from when i posted until Simmo came home and noticed, but lots of Guests were looking in. I understand your reasoning and fair enough, i've recently started posting on here again after a long absence, but as you say the flow of traffic is very slow. Don't think personally it would hurt to get people to register, doesn't cost anything! But your forum and i'll post something from time to time, good luck.
 
dvds2000 said:
I'll just quickly explain that :)

It used to be that the forums were pretty much private, you had to join to read anything. That was fine when the channel 4 forums first closed, as hundreds migrated over to here and TRF, and forums were still popular.
However, not being able to read forums is a massive negative on SEO and also attracting new members. It's hard enough these days to keep people posting, let alone getting someone to join when they can't see what they are joining, so the decision was made to open the forum up so non members could read and hopefully join.

It was discussed to have a private forum that only members, or members with a certain post count or length of membership, could access, but it was decided that all that would do would be create a clique of members that others would feel excluded from. Considering thats been mentioned more than once on here, we thought it best not to do that.

Hope that helps explain it :)
Click to expand...

Totally agree.

SJ, I think you'll find plenty of us have put up 'successful', ie have significantly outrun their odds whether they actually win or not, selections only for them to go unacknowledged. It doesn't happen very often, to be fair, and most people are genuinely appreciative of our input whether they say so or not.

It bothered me a little at first, to be honest, but over time I've grown to accept that I put stuff up and leave it up to others to express appreciation or not. It's no longer a big deal. Being abused or picked on for petty reasons is much more off-putting.

I put up one a couple of weeks back. I genuinely thought I was putting up a big-priced good thing and I was hoping it would allow me to go out on my shield as I'd intended it to be my very last post. It ran like a donkey. That was a sobering experience as I had a very decent bet on it too. I'm hoping George Bowen can make up for it today :)
 
Marb said:
Good luck

Another worth a mention is Maid In India (Newbury 1:45), who worked his way up through the handicaps, and although latest wins came on soft or heavy, has plenty of proven form on good and good to firm too. The 20's has dissapeared, and the 16's is on its way out aswell.
Click to expand...

Good start to today.
 
Yes, the debate about the lurkers who never post goes back as far as old members such as EC1, who often commented on how few people would ever congratulate anyone.
 
Marb said:
Ayr 2:00 KYLIE RULES never stopped improving since switching to Ruth Carr's stable. She won four races on the bounce earlier this season, before winning a another valuable handicap at Thirsk. She's gone up almost two stone in the ratings this season, about 25lb to be precise. As I said a few weeks ago, the geldings tend to win most of the handicaps, because a) most horses competing in handicaps are geldings, but also because b) there's a significant percentage of colts who improve a lot after the operation. Therefore for a filly or mare to mix it up in the top handicaps is always worth more than the bare rating. Kylie Rules fits the profile and I reckon she'll outrun odds of 20/1 each way here.
Click to expand...

3rd at 33's - Travelled like a winner, great run.
 
Cheers bro.

Easily could have gone for Show Stealer, Admirality, Golden Apollo or Royal Residence in the next.

I had to back one in the end so went for Admirality. He's got the ability if it all comes right.

I hope he shows more in the final furlong than he has done lately.
 
Last edited:
Marb said:
Good luck

Another worth a mention is Maid In India (Newbury 1:45), who worked his way up through the handicaps, and although latest wins came on soft or heavy, has plenty of proven form on good and good to firm too. The 20's has dissappeared, and the 16's is on its way out aswell.
Click to expand...

Good shout marb - got 20s on Betfair. Cheers!!
 
Simpson Jersey said:
Thanks DVD, just that i noticed no members had been on from when i posted until Simmo came home and noticed, but lots of Guests were looking in. I understand your reasoning and fair enough, i've recently started posting on here again after a long absence, but as you say the flow of traffic is very slow. Don't think personally it would hurt to get people to register, doesn't cost anything! But your forum and i'll post something from time to time, good luck.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with you, but people won't register if they can't see what they are registering for. How many times have you googled something, clicked a link, been met with 'sorry, you need to register to read that content', then clicked back and went to the next result? I do it all the time, very rarely will I register and when I do it's mainly when its a 'niche' question, and I can't find the answer elsewhere.

I do try to get people to register, the second post is littered with ads on every thread with a message to register to remove them, if you are viewing as a guest, I would have thought that would have helped :).

Just also to say, the discussions about this were public, and it was the general consensus of everyone who took part to make things as they are today :)

Any ideas on increasing registrations would be appreciated though :)
 
Last edited:
I like Pammi and Gworn in the 5 o’clock but the tea leaves have settled on frightened rabbit. 50/1 seems reasonable ;)
 
Last edited:
I would stick with Pammi. Well backed into 14's and she came right this time last season. 1M4F looks about right, gd-st ideal, well handicapped and 7 pound claimer on to.
 
Just a mention for a few decent priced horses today that will love the softer ground at Hamilton and could well outrun their Odds(if there is such a thing).
1 Gilmer 2.30H-16/1
2 Marietta Rosetti 4.45 H-20/1
At Leicester
3 Elixsoft 4.30 Returns to the course where ran best turf race, distance may be too short but if gets out on terms could surprise.-20/1
4 Secretinthepark-3.25 has probably 3/4lbs too much weight and needs to get out on terms, won on stiff Bev track, similar to Leics imo off 72.- 16/1.
 
Warwick 2.10 Nikap 40/1 small e/way - falls into the category of could be anything after showing great promise finishing 2nd in his first bumper race despite an awful ride. A race which has worked out well. The more rain the better and hopefully a professional jockey and hood can make a difference if he takes to hurdling?
 
Back
Top