The Long Shot Thread

I've backed three against the field in the Hennessy. The main bet doesn't qualify for the thread but the other two - to small stakes - do.

I'm unable to study the form so they're backed purely on gut instinct.

Beware The Bear 50/1 impressed me at Cheltenham and appeared to have turned over a new leaf. He might still be unexposed to some extent.

Walt 66/1 impressed me at Kempton and I suspect has been trained for this race ever since. Mulholland is very much a target trainer and has had the likes of Carole's Destrier (was engaged) run well in this race in the past. James Best is operating at 50% for him this season too. I just thought he should be a fraction of those odds.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've backed three against the field in the Hennessy. The main bet doesn't qualify for the thread but the other two - to small stakes - do.

I'm unable to study the form so they're backed purely on gut instinct.

Beware The Bear 50/1 impressed me at Cheltenham and appeared to have turned over a new leaf. He might still be unexposed to some extent.

Walt 66/1 impressed me at Kempton and I suspect has been trained for this race ever since. Mulholland is very much a target trainer and has had the likes of Carole's Destrier (was engaged) run well in this race in the past. James Best is operating at 50% for him this season too. I just thought he should be a fraction of those odds.
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Good runs for my money from both.

BTB probably couldn't have done much more on the day and Walt appeared not to stay after lobbing for a long way.
 
1.00 Fairyhouse

Not sure he’ll beat Envoi Allen who looks a real beast. But I think Embittered at 20/1 is going to run a race a lot better than his odds suggest.

Only been beaten by Envoi Allen by a few lengths in the past, and 1 length to Abracadabras. Then beat Blackbow fairly comfortably on his hurdles debut. He’ll need to find a bit more again but i think 20/1 is a ludicrous price, and one I’ve invested in. Mark Walsh gets the ride
 
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12.25 Exeter Bluebell Sally 33/1- I have risked a small e/way as she was visually impressive l/t/o up to today's distance before stamina became an issue. She also has a good hurdling technique. May not be good enough but may be a mare coming into form? I have paid to find out.
 
12:30 Fontwell

This is not the type of race I'd usually be interested in. However, we currently have the dead 16 runners so the race is very much an each way betting heat even with a short priced favourite in the line up. The one I am going to back each way at a very big price is PRESENTING LUCINA, who has previously hinted at having ability, been around Fontwell before, and simply looks one that might improve markedly now sliding down the handicap. 33's top price, I'm holding out to see if I can pinch 40/1 or bigger on the exchanges. This is far from guaranteed to come off of course, but I like a big price on a horse that could be unexposed.
 
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Marb said:
12:30 Fontwell

This is not the type of race I'd usually be interested in. However, we currently have the dead 16 runners so the race is very much an each way betting heat even with a short priced favourite in the line up. The one I am going to back each way at a very big price is PRESENTING LUCINA, who has previously hinted at having ability, been around Fontwell before, and simply looks one that might improve markedly now sliding down the handicap. 33's top price, I'm holding out to see if I can pinch 40/1 or bigger on the exchanges. This is far from guaranteed to come off of course, but I like a big price on a horse that could be unexposed.
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Running an absolute blinder there. Didn’t look a great fall and horse still down.
 
Yeah lets hope she pulls through mate.

Given the eventual winner was slowing rapidly near the finish I actually could have seen her staying on again to win. She was only a length or so behind when she fell.

Hard game this.

Ps, I watched the replay. She was such an unlucky faller as it seemed like she cleared the hurdle with her legs just fine but somehow rolled over on to her neck. Almost like she over-jumped it.
 
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Marb said:
Yeah lets hope she pulls through mate.

Given the eventual winner was slowing rapidly near the finish I actually could have seen her staying on again to win. She was only a length or so behind when she fell.

Hard game this.

Ps, I watched the replay. She was such an unlucky faller as it seemed like she cleared the hurdle with her legs just fine but somehow rolled over on to her neck. Almost like she over-jumped it.
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I have had a look at trainers website and twitter and there is no bad news on there. I can only presume the horse is ok. She was running a big race and looked unlucky in the fall.
 
12:40 Newcastle

EPSOM DES MOTTES ran with promise the last day at Carlisle, (better than the finishing position would have us believe). He was close up for a long way, but as the racing post comments says, he lost some fluency three from home. That was best run in a handful of spins over hurdles. He looks a fairly big galloping type. He'll be more suited to running at Newcastle than the sharp Carlisle. He is worth a little each way bet as the handicapper has dropped him five pounds to a mark of 80, he's had a decent break of 49 days, and with a low mileage he can out run the current odds of 40/1.
 
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I've thrown a very very small ew bet at Spiritofthegames at 50/1 in the big race.

I backed this one in a festival handicap at a fraction of those odds and I don't see Skelton running it unless he thinks it can run well.

Obviously not my main bet in the race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
First impression is that he did a Singlefarmpayment.
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Bad luck - possibly but it is pretty horrible ground out there .

Just overheard in the bar at Cheltenham

A“ That was a great ride by Scudamore on Warthog “
B“ It wasn’t Scudamore it was David Noonan”
A ” That explains it “
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've thrown a very very small ew bet at Spiritofthegames at 50/1 in the big race.

I backed this one in a festival handicap at a fraction of those odds and I don't see Skelton running it unless he thinks it can run well.

Obviously not my main bet in the race.
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Good each way bet that. Well done. I can't stop backing fallers at the minute.
 
My main bet was Benatar earlier this morning with a small saver on GMP which I knew was well handicapped but I remember saying to myself more than once last season 'that pig just can't jump'. PK headlined it during the week but it was 14/1 then and I decided to hold off in case it didn't run.

Then when Benatar came out I looked very closely at Secret Investor but noted that he'd been taken out of previous races due to soft ground.

A couple of minutes before the off I realised I only had a very small saver on GMP taken this morning at 11/2 (would really only just cover the Benatar bet) and looked elsewhere for a squeak of value. No sooner had the race finished than I remembered SOTG being outbattled up the hill before.

Still, it makes for another profit in a feature race following Beware The Bear in the Hennessy so I have to content myself with that as small consolation for not being able to study.
 
I was on Secret Investor but like every other horse I have backed at Cheltenham today he stopped very quickly after travelling well.
 
Ardross said:
Bad luck - possibly but it is pretty horrible ground out there .

Just overheard in the bar at Cheltenham

A“ That was a great ride by Scudamore on Warthog “
B“ It wasn’t Scudamore it was David Noonan”
A ” That explains it “
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We’re you in the Insurance Bar Ardross?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've thrown a very very small ew bet at Spiritofthegames at 50/1 in the big race.

I backed this one in a festival handicap at a fraction of those odds and I don't see Skelton running it unless he thinks it can run well.

Obviously not my main bet in the race.
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A great shout and very unlucky Maurice. He was on my initial shortlist, but I dismissed him after the big drift assuming they had targets later in the season in mind. He definitely dogged it though. They’ll have to be careful putting his head in front on the line in future.
 
Catterick 1.25 Mance Rayder 33/1 - The fav for the race is Mah Mate Bob but last year my selection finished 12L in front of that horse giving him 3lb in a novice hurdle. Mah Mate Bob with his claimer is 4lb better off today. Mance Rayder had an impossible task on his first race over fences against Sam Spinner and 3 others rated 130+ to 140+ but he ran and jumped well keeping up with this illustrious company for at least the distance of today's race, before those exertions told and he was sensibly pulled up. His last race can be completely ignored as he clipped heels with another horse and fell on the flat before they reached the 1st fence.
 
Also posted in the What are you backing today thread but now qualifies for here as is 20/1 in places.

Uttoxeter 12.35 UBETYA 20/1 small e/way value bet. On a line through Papa Tango Charly & Benson the selection is closely matched with the two favs in this race. However, he has to prove he can jump hurdles and handle heavy ground.
 
swedish chef said:
Also posted in the What are you backing today thread but now qualifies for here as is 20/1 in places.

Uttoxeter 12.35 UBETYA 20/1 small e/way value bet. On a line through Papa Tango Charly & Benson the selection is closely matched with the two favs in this race. However, he has to prove he can jump hurdles and handle heavy ground.
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Took each way, lovely stuff.
 
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