The Long Shot Thread

Double J said:
I’m stupidly warming to Apples Jade.

First time hood to keep her interested, Dicky giving her a hard time on her back. Peak Apples would be a 11/4 shot. Other than Paisley, rest of the field wouldn’t be near her.

She’s been a good mare and won me some decent £ along the way. Stupidly backing her just in case. It isn’t beyond the realms of impossible.
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I actually thought by going off at that ridiculous pace, he ruined the race for me.
 
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Just remembered that Rebecca Curtis had form in the stayers, having brought At Fishers Cross back to place at a huge price. I'd backed one of hers earlier thinking it was time she won something...good to see the Kirbys get a place in the mares....
 
swedish chef said:
Warwick 3.00 Rayna's World 20/1 - worth risking a small bet. She has shown some solid form since racing at 2m to 2 1/2m in her last 3 races. At the end of October she gave Cornerstone Lad a fright off level weights over 2m on heavy on the flat btn 1/2L . Her first hurdle race she wasn't disgraced finishing 3rd behind Ribble Valley & Sir Valentine with Proscema well behind in 4th. She then ran in a mares hurdle and bumped into one, Clondaw Caitlin (won easy n/t/o) and the well btn 3rd has won twice since. If she is not over the top from a long season then I think she is better than her mark and could be competitive in this race.
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Shame this was non runner this day. I think she may of won after her performance in the mares novice today.
 
moehat said:
Just remembered that Rebecca Curtis had form in the stayers, having brought At Fishers Cross back to place at a huge price. I'd backed one of hers earlier thinking it was time she won something...good to see the Kirbys get a place in the mares....
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Didn’t realise Rebecca Curtis was so fit either
 
Didn’t she split up with Gearoid Costelloe who was pretty influential in setting up the yard and was the JP connection?
 
viking said:
Pertemps final

Rapper looks to be on an upward curve and may be overpriced at 25/1 (SkyBet 6 places).

Closely matched with Skandiburg.on New Year’s Day running and may have prevailed that day if the rider had held on to the reins up the run-in.

Dickie Johnson up today


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Good run for my money there but got the sense Dickie downed tools once the win was gone


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She's had some good horses over the years; remember Teaforthree and Irish Cavalier, who was a bit of a giant killer. [giant slayer I mean...]
 
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swedish chef said:
Shame this was non runner this day. I think she may of won after her performance in the mares novice today.
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I follow the Kirbys horses blind but didn't back it when it drifted out to 200's. Pleased for them because they sadly lost a horse on the gallops yesterday.
 
Yesterday wasn't a good day, to put it mildly. I hardly got a run for my money from any of the longshots.

That probably doesn't bode well for today's first longshots because they're both pretty mental bets and they're both in the Triumph:

Never Do Nothing 125/1 - an impressive debut saw him start at just 8/1 - shorter than the winner AWOTS who is only 12/1 today - in the G1 at Leopardstown at the DRF. The jockey was quick to offer an excuse, informing the stewards that the horse stopped quickly so clearly better had been expected. Today's price looks as though the poor run has been taken at face value. I'm willing to bet that it shouldn't.

Yellow Tiger 125/1 - Do the owners have more money than sense? Why in the name of all that is holy would you supplement a complete and utter no-hoper for a G1 at the festival of festivals? Does being in the parade ring there mean that much to you that you're willing to splash out ridiculous money just to be there? Are you, as we say up here, aff yer fuckin heid? Well, if you are, I'm jumping in with you! :lol:
 
Next up runs in the Grand Annual - the Bay Birch 50/1 - there was a lot to like about the way this one won at Chepstow (Caid Du Lin, Activial, Charbel & Marracudja all behind) in October for which he went up to 152. If this then became the plan it would explain his subsequent form and it's pretty much worked as he gets in here off 140, 5lbs lower than Chepstow!
 
A trio I'm keeping onside in the Martin Pipe:

Cliffs Of Dover 66/1 - I remember backing this one ante-post for the Champion Hurdle in its second season following its run in the Elite and the fact it turns up here first time out in a race the trainer likes to target (also has Ecco, which he talked up before the Betfair) piques my curiosity.

Ecco 50/1 - Talked up ahead of Pic D'Orhy ahead of the Betfair, no surprise if this was the plan all along. I'm happy to play along to small stakes to find out. I put up Danny Kirwan ante-post for this race so I have to assume, for whatever reason, the trainer is happier to rely on these two.

Doctor Duffy 33/1 - the Byrnes horse didn't figure in the big race the other day but I can't help thinking this one's profile is more typical of his. It's no more than a leap of faith that this is a long-term plot that arrives under the radar.
 
At the start of the season I put up a Dark Horse in one of my 10 to follow lists. I selected him not only because he wasn’t in the list but because I saw not only potential but signs of a plot in the way he had so far been campaigned.
The trainer is no stranger to pulling of gambles in this sphere, won the “Shwotefair hdl” 3 times with 3 different horses. So let’s have a look at what he’s been up to, and if the math’s can add reassurance.

First time up he Changed from Ed Vaughan to Gary Moore and after a 115 days break he sloshed up at Kempton in a 2m introductory hdl at 25/1.

Next the trainer could offer no explanation to a poor run, I can, go watch it, he cruised up running far too freely and dropped back. That run was followed by a gambled on run where he ran into Fusil Raffles, (the race he took a chunk out of himself) finishing second.
He’s now been raised to 135… possibly not enough to get into this race, so we will make sure and add a few pounds without giving to much away.

Still a young horse with plenty of time to improve. A run on the flat over a mile, 3 weeks before his biggest test yet, (the race that drew my attention) 2m back at Kempton, a 4-year-old taking on older more experienced rivals…Silver Streak no less, off level weight.

Held up in touch in the last pair, he made a mistake at the 3rd last, closed on the leaders 2 out, pressing for second and drawing alongside Grand Sancy but no chance with the winner, he looked to have the measure of GS when that one fell at the last…..the handicapper raised him 8Lb’s.

Too much weight, lets get him fit, primed, and drop a Lb or 2..Elite hurdle Christopher Wood behind, since raised 7Lb…Fusil and Sancy fight out the finish…12Lb superior getting 3Lb and he never got involved in the dog fight finish with the future in mind.

Next Epatante giving 3Lb, took her on 2 out, one paced after…Chris Woods, Elvis Mail…behind….the math equates to something in the region of 10/15Lb well in, in future…gets in here of 138….had a pipe cleaner at Kempton on the flat 16 days ago….got to be still improving at 5.

So there you have it….I’m bored waiting…So please don’t Beat The Judge up…
 
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That was one of the first I looked at, Maxbet. I'll need to put some sickness insurance on it now!

Enjoyed the rationale too :)
 
Thanks for the reminder of Cliffs of Dover that is actually a 'cliff' horse of mine. I've just backed Kalabaloo in the Foxhunters at 125/1 because I assume Gina Andrews is another of the Andrews girls and it's just been mentioned on racing radio as a horse that shouldn't be such a big price. I need a decent priced winner/placed horse today to get me out of trouble!
 
Maxbet said:
At the start of the season I put up a Dark Horse in one of my 10 to follow lists. I selected him not only because he wasn’t in the list but because I saw not only potential but signs of a plot in the way he had so far been campaigned.
The trainer is no stranger to pulling of gambles in this sphere, won the “Shwotefair hdl” 3 times with 3 different horses. So let’s have a look at what he’s been up to, and if the math’s can add reassurance.

First time up he Changed from Ed Vaughan to Gary Moore and after a 115 days break he sloshed up at Kempton in a 2m introductory hdl at 25/1.

Next the trainer could offer no explanation to a poor run, I can, go watch it, he cruised up running far too freely and dropped back. That run was followed by a gambled on run where he ran into Fusil Raffles, (the race he took a chunk out of himself) finishing second.
He’s now been raised to 135… possibly not enough to get into this race, so we will make sure and add a few pounds without giving to much away.

Still a young horse with plenty of time to improve. A run on the flat over a mile, 3 weeks before his biggest test yet, (the race that drew my attention) 2m back at Kempton, a 4-year-old taking on older more experienced rivals…Silver Streak no less, off level weight.

Held up in touch in the last pair, he made a mistake at the 3rd last, closed on the leaders 2 out, pressing for second and drawing alongside Grand Sancy but no chance with the winner, he looked to have the measure of GS when that one fell at the last…..the handicapper raised him 8Lb’s.

Too much weight, lets get him fit, primed, and drop a Lb or 2..Elite hurdle Christopher Wood behind, since raised 7Lb…Fusil and Sancy fight out the finish…12Lb superior getting 3Lb and he never got involved in the dog fight finish with the future in mind.

Next Epatante giving 3Lb, took her on 2 out, one paced after…Chris Woods, Elvis Mail…behind….the math equates to something in the region of 10/15Lb well in, in future…gets in here of 138….had a pipe cleaner at Kempton on the flat 16 days ago….got to be still improving at 5.

So there you have it….I’m bored waiting…So please don’t Beat The Judge up…
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I hope you are right as I put this up last night on my thread.now 125/1
 
I think Her Majesty may be plotting a couple of handicap wins at Kempton tomorrow :ninja::whistle::lol:

14:05 Kemp 14th Mar
Keen On@11/1
Win
15:15 Kemp 14th Mar
Forth Bridge@25/1
Win
3.2
£1,059.84
Doubles (£3.20 x 1) EW
@ 312.0

On a serious note for the thread Forth Bridge won the race very easy last year off 2lb lower and hoping he has been plotted for this race tomorrow.
 
swedish chef said:
I think Her Majesty may be plotting a couple of handicap wins at Kempton tomorrow :ninja::whistle::lol:

14:05 Kemp 14th Mar
Keen On@11/1
Win
15:15 Kemp 14th Mar
Forth Bridge@25/1
Win
3.2
£1,059.84
Doubles (£3.20 x 1) EW
@ 312.0

On a serious note for the thread Forth Bridge won the race very easy last year off 2lb lower and hoping he has been plotted for this race tomorrow.
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I totally get where you're coming from, chef. I was suspicious last year when FB won and he hasn't followed it up at all. I thik there would be something suspicious afoot if he won again. I'm with you on Keen On, though.

Two longshots for me today, unfortunately they're in the same race.

Kempton 2.40 Any Time Will Do & Garo De Juilly, both 22/1 - I put up the former for one of the festival handicaps but he missed the cut (by one I think). The worry is that the stable's runners pretty much bombed during the week. GDJ was on my radar but I was holding on to see if it got into any of the handicap hurdles and I planned to nibble at it at long odds. It's just well handicapped on its best form and I see it's blue across the board today.
 
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