The Long Shot Thread

In what we knew as the Close Brothers - can't be arsed to find out the new name - I'm happy enough with my 25/1 Imperial Aura but I've also taken De Plotting Shed at 66/1. It's generally shorter, which is a start...

It seems to be getting its act together at an advanced age for a novice but will obviously be vulnerable to serious improvers and hidden plots. There has to be a chance it will simply be outrun late on by those types but if they don't find the anticipated improvement he could find himself winning by default. At the price, I reckon it's worth a wee stab.

There's a fair chance that it will drift in the morning and more places/offers will come on line. If so, I'd be happy to have another wee stab at it.

Edit - I should maybe add, he was once a 152 hurdler with Gordon Elliott before going downhill. IN theory, he should have made up into a 162 chaser. Now seemingly in a happier state of mind for new connections, he beat Who Dares Wins last time and that one went on to win the Pendil. He gets in off 139 here.

Would he also bag a big bonus for winning at Plumpton and here?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
The Northern Trust Co Nov Ch - De Plotting Shed at 66/1.
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Been Backing it for a while, put it up as my E/W bet in the: Your nap, lay and best each way of the Festival thread.

He beat Who Dares Wins in what turned out to be a muddled race. The pacemaker fell and Scu capitalised on the mistake of WDW's, taking the inituitive and bounding clear while he sorted himself out...He held on well in determined fashion when the rallying WDW's came back at him on the line, WDW's has since franked the form somewhat. I think he had been showing a lot of improvment at home, they entered him wherever there was a bonus race for winning a race (hurdle's and chase's) and following up at the Festival, yet this race was their only entry at the festival.


I half suspect G Elliott to be behind the Plotting of this, in his shed:whistle:
 
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Activial is one for me in the Ultima. 6lb better off than last year where he was beat 7 lengths.

Nothing would wow you about his form this season, but he paid for trying to go with Native River last time out and wasn't absolutely disgraced even then, despite coming in last of 6.

Hopefully he drifts out to 33s/40s like last year and I'll have a small play.
 
On my radar too, Bonjers but not committed to it just yet.

I've taken a wee pop at the Champion Chase.

I'm a wee bit annoyed that only three places are up for grabs as the front three will be hard to kick out of the frame but I suspect Dynamite Dollars might outrun his current odds of 20/1.

At his media event, Pudgy was quite bullish about the idea of Politologue being a lively outsider and his ratings in the high 160s would suggest he had a point in an open year but this doesn't look very open. However, he said the same thing about Dynamite Dollars in somewhat less bullish tones so I'm just a tad surprised that Cobden appears to have opted for him. There's every chance he wasn't fit against Altior last time - Altior probably wasn't either - so there's a good chance he might get within a three lengths of him again.

Nothing ventured, and all that sort of stuff...
 
The Boodles isn't a race I really get into but I noticed that Elliot & Russell are set to team up with Recent Revelations, available at 20/1. Is it really likely that punters will allow it to go off at that sort of price, especially if Tiger Roll has just won the diddy race? Surely worth a trying to beat the sp.
 
I l;ike Lord Schnitzel ew in Close Brothers.
He ran a right race in Thyestes for a long way and trainer Matthew Smith nearly won a few at The Festival before at big prices.
That Thyestes was a very good race so could run very well ew.
 
I've followed Quarenta this season and have to back it tomorrow in the ultima at 40/1.Cobden rides 10st 4lb and I believe it will be staying on so hopeful of 1st 5.

In the Boodles I like the well bred GEALACH 25/1 g.elliot.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The Boodles isn't a race I really get into but I noticed that Elliot & Russell are set to team up with Recent Revelations, available at 20/1. Is it really likely that punters will allow it to go off at that sort of price, especially if Tiger Roll has just won the diddy race? Surely worth a trying to beat the sp.
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I have backed that at 20s. Have you looked at the rank outsiders in the Close Brothers?
 
Desert Orchid said:
In what we knew as the Close Brothers - can't be arsed to find out the new name - I'm happy enough with my 25/1 Imperial Aura but I've also taken De Plotting Shed at 66/1. It's generally shorter, which is a start...

It seems to be getting its act together at an advanced age for a novice but will obviously be vulnerable to serious improvers and hidden plots. There has to be a chance it will simply be outrun late on by those types but if they don't find the anticipated improvement he could find himself winning by default. At the price, I reckon it's worth a wee stab.

There's a fair chance that it will drift in the morning and more places/offers will come on line. If so, I'd be happy to have another wee stab at it.

Edit - I should maybe add, he was once a 152 hurdler with Gordon Elliott before going downhill. IN theory, he should have made up into a 162 chaser. Now seemingly in a happier state of mind for new connections, he beat Who Dares Wins last time and that one went on to win the Pendil. He gets in off 139 here.

Would he also bag a big bonus for winning at Plumpton and here?
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Forget last post! Had a feeling you would find this one!
 
Slim said:
Forget last post! Had a feeling you would find this one!
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:)

I've been waiting for this one to drift to qualifying odds.

Not my main bet in the Arkle (that's BUAS) but I'm not sure Al Dancer should be 20/1, based on similar thinking to my preferring BUAS to those ahead of him in the betting. They were 150+ hurdlers. so near the top of the tree, and haven't really been asked to find the notional 10lbs' improvement I like to allow. Notebook started this season on a much lower mark and has already improved a great deal. There has to be a chance he is reaching his plateau for the year whereas I wouldn't be surprised if Al D (and BUAS) have been targeting this since last March.
 
As usual, I'm mob-handed in the Ultima but only two of them qualify for the thread.

Brave Eagle 33/1 - Hendo pulled a bit of a rabbit out of the hat with Beware The Bear last year. Didn't seem particularly well-handicapped but soon went wide and prominent before battling on stoutly against other jobs. Brave Eagle was on a curve and ended up representing the yard in the Hennessy but, either by accident or design, did nothing through the race. Lo and behold, he turns up here. Sickness insurance a must.

Soupy Soups 66/1 in a place - Mulholland is a shrewd target trainer. I thought this one was ridden like a total non-trier at Wincanton but he scooted past tiring rivals from a long way off the pace to finish second. That was another big step up and I thought he looked much better than he showed. The fact he turns up here might be significant but I just have reservations about the jockey. Still, the trainer seems to trust him.
 
I've done the following small e/ways

Supreme - Elixir D'ainay 20/1
Arkle - Global Citizen 25/1
Ultima - Atlanta Ablaze 33/1 - Quarenta 28/1
Chapion Hurdle - Cornerstone Lad 28/1 - Petit Mouchoir 25/1
Northern Trust - Paint The Dream 33/1
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've also taken 40/1 NRNB Any Time Will Do for the Skeltons in the Pertemps Final.

It's part sickness insurance, part value stab.

I backed this one earlier in the year when I felt it was ridden very negatively in a race it could have won. Having seen what the Skeltons did to get Ch'tibello into the County off a winning mark, I wouldn't put anything past them and if this one turns up on the day it's unlikely to be anywhere near 40s.
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First reserve:whistle:
 
In the Ballymore I've taken a little of the 25/1 Easywork. It seems weak enough but surely punters will latch on to it at some point as a value alternative to the front two. Elliot-Giggi 1st colours-Blackmore-25/1??

In the same race, I've also taken a little 50/1 Son Of Camas for Hendo-NdB-O'Sullivan. Hendo looked like having a decent team for this at one point so if this is his best shot should he really be such a price?
 
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Looking ahead to Thursday, I've taken 66/1 Full Of Surprises in the mares' novice race.

It's not my kind of race but I put up Concertista last year on a hunch and this one is similar.

It's a JP mare ridden by Geraghty for Mulholland. I'd have thought that since JP's Epatante was fav last year - whatever became of her? - and given how many smart mares he tends to have in training generally, why is this his only rep in the race?

If she was just here to make up the numbers I can't imagine Geraghty bothering to risk a fall ahead of Friday.
 
In the Coral Cup, as usual, I'm mob handed with, at this stage, at least three qualifiers for the thread. I'm waiting for one to drift a wee bit more and will put it up then but in the meantime I've taken:

Kilfenora 40/1 7 pl - I'm pretty sure this one was a lot shorter not too long ago and was mentioned elsewhere as being a fancy by one or two regulars. I presume the young claimer has put people off but he's actually got a good strike rate for some shrewd operators and I suspect he'll be running on his merits, in which case that claim could be very useful.

Golan Fortune 100/1 7 pl - I thought this one looked pretty much back to his best old form earlier in the season but wasn't at all surprised they got a P next to its name shortly afterwards and now he turns up here after an absence. To be honest, I thought the Pertemps would be the plan but I'm not sure he qualified. Hopefully it's a fast race in soft ground and he can stay on past tiring rivals up the hill.
 
In the Bumper, my main fancy doesn't quite qualify for the thread but one I planned to back at any rate does.

One True King 150/1 (4pl avail in a place) - NTD tends not to tilt at windmills in the better bumper races. It's possible he has Aintree or Ayr in mind for this one and the market drift isn't encouraging but I just have a gut feeling they wouldn't come here if they didn't think this one was decent.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Coral Cup, as usual, I'm mob handed with, at this stage, at least three qualifiers for the thread. I'm waiting for one to drift a wee bit more and will put it up then but in the meantime I've taken:
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The third one now qualifies: Burrows Edge 20/1. I noted this one being ridden quite negatively when winning recently and the race fell apart in front of him. Maybe they were trying to win clever and ensure enough of a rise to make the cut for this but I got the impression the horse was a long way better than the bare form.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In the Ballymore I've taken a little of the 25/1 Easywork. It seems weak enough but surely punters will latch on to it at some point as a value alternative to the front two. Elliot-Giggi 1st colours-Blackmore-25/1??
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Outlay on the race all but recouped. Won't complain. I thought the horse looked very keen through the race then green at the business end. Might be a serious one next year.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Outlay on the race all but recouped. Won't complain. I thought the horse looked very keen through the race then green at the business end. Might be a serious one next year.
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Did excellent to finish were it did. Don’t think Racheal ever had her hands on his neck, keen as mustard.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken a wee pop at the Champion Chase.

I'm a wee bit annoyed that only three places are up for grabs as the front three will be hard to kick out of the frame but I suspect Dynamite Dollars might outrun his current odds of 20/1.

At his media event, Pudgy was quite bullish about the idea of Politologue being a lively outsider and his ratings in the high 160s would suggest he had a point in an open year but this doesn't look very open. However, he said the same thing about Dynamite Dollars in somewhat less bullish tones so I'm just a tad surprised that Cobden appears to have opted for him.
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So Cobden didn't opt for him after all.

Not sure how the bet will be settled. We'll see.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The Boodles isn't a race I really get into but I noticed that Elliot & Russell are set to team up with Recent Revelations, available at 20/1. Is it really likely that punters will allow it to go off at that sort of price, especially if Tiger Roll has just won the diddy race? Surely worth a trying to beat the sp.
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Beat the SP at least and a small profit. Job done.
 
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