The Long Shot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
In the Bumper, my main fancy doesn't quite qualify for the thread but one I planned to back at any rate does.

One True King 150/1 (4pl avail in a place) - NTD tends not to tilt at windmills in the better bumper races. It's possible he has Aintree or Ayr in mind for this one and the market drift isn't encouraging but I just have a gut feeling they wouldn't come here if they didn't think this one was decent.
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Ran well for its price. Travelled nicely on to the heels of the leaders approaching the turn for home but wasn't really asked to go with them up the straight.
 
Cheltenham

5:30 Ami Debois. 66/1 each way.

This horse is far from exposed. The eyecatching run was two starts ago when giving a little bit of weight and finishing not too far away in second to Big River, who was a close up fifth in the Ultima on Tuesday. I forgive the last day when pulled up. She is worth a go at huge odds.
 
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Marb said:
Cheltenham

5:30 Ami Debois. 66/1 each way.

This horse is far from exposed. The eyecatching run was two starts ago when giving a little bit of weight and finishing not too far away in second to Big River, who was a close up fifth in the Ultima on Tuesday. I forgive the last day when pulled up. She is worth a go at huge odds.
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Non Runner
 
Ever seen a horse play about at 2m 4f with a dosage like this 0-0-4-1-3 (8) DI = 0.33 CD = -0.88

Then get upped 7f in distance followed by a huge gamble....

If it wins, Champagne will be at a premium
 
I’m stupidly warming to Apples Jade.

First time hood to keep her interested, Dicky giving her a hard time on her back. Peak Apples would be a 11/4 shot. Other than Paisley, rest of the field wouldn’t be near her.

She’s been a good mare and won me some decent £ along the way. Stupidly backing her just in case. It isn’t beyond the realms of impossible.
 
Hexham 5.30 Dionysis 100/1 betfair sportsbook - showed enough in an Irish Bumper and Hurdle race for W P Mullins to risk a small e/way at the price. Although PU in Hurdle race behind some very good horses - a lot of those tailed off and pulled up have run well since. This looks much more his level unless they are trying a couple of runs to get a h'cap mark? I will put in a lay on the exchange @21.0 in running and hope to get a free bet at close to 80/1.
 
Double J said:
I’m stupidly warming to Apples Jade.

First time hood to keep her interested, Dicky giving her a hard time on her back. Peak Apples would be a 11/4 shot. Other than Paisley, rest of the field wouldn’t be near her.

She’s been a good mare and won me some decent £ along the way. Stupidly backing her just in case. It isn’t beyond the realms of impossible.
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I'm seriously considering some sickness insurance on her too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm seriously considering some sickness insurance on her too.
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Sorry; I backed her the other day which means she has no chance whatsoever [I'm having a really bad week....you know, the sort where, if a horse you've backed falls it brings down or seriously interferes with another horse you've backed].
 
moehat said:
Sorry; I backed her the other day which means she has no chance whatsoever [I'm having a really bad week....you know, the sort where, if a horse you've backed falls it brings down or seriously interferes with another horse you've backed].
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We've all got the t-shirt, moehat :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Still 40s and still can't see it going off anywhere near that price.

But I've taken another stab at the race anyway with Unowhatimeanharry at a boosted 35/1 NRNB.

I can't help sympathising with him. We're both ageing and past our best but on our day...

Once odds-on fav for the Stayers' Hurdle when rated 167 it seems his wins in the last two Punchestown Stayers' championship races have been ignored. Latterly they've abandoned the successful keep-him-interested tactics and ridden him patiently, especially last time out in his only attempt at qualifying for this race.

Down to 150, would it really surprise anyone if this has been his target for a long time? Not me. There will be worse 33/1 shots next week.
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I've gone in again this morning with the price going out to 50s and 7 places on offer.

I'm either going to be very right or very wrong but I don't mind paying to find out. I'm having a pretty decent week so far :)
 
In the Shitair I've taken a pop at Duc Des Genievres at 25/1.

I was all over him like a rash in the Arkle last year and he didn't let me down. I've backed him at big prices tis season but he's borne all the hallmarks of a non-trier who's being gradually brought to the boil for something big. Whether it's this or Aintree or Punchestown or Galway I don't have a scooby but he was very impressive here last year and I went very high with my figure for his Arkle win. In hindsight, the race probably fell apart but he went up to 163 for it so, in theory, should be a 173 horse this year. Nothing else in the race today has that OR.
 
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In the BAMS I'm mob-handed as per.

At the moment, the only qualifier for the thread is Highway One O One at 50/1. Form figures of 2U43PP hardly inspire confidence, hence no doubt his price, but for me he's just been fannying about tactically and at longer in some races ahead of getting into this off a similar mark to his novice form. The trainer got Remiluc to run tremendously well in the Betfair after being tailed off. There has to be a chance that the Topham is the plan but at the odds I'm willing to pay to find out.
 
In the mares' novice race, I see the JP/Geraghty mare is still 66s so maybe today is just an educational for something further down the line. I can't imagine it would be that price if Hendo or Elliott trained it.

I'm not sure it's much of a race going into it but no doubt something decent will come out of it. Concertista should be 10lb better than last year so has to be a danger to everything (Eglantine Du Seuil was running in a better race earlier in the week) but Yukon Lil (Magnier/Mullins) at 20/1 might be under the radar.

It's just a hunch but so was Concertista last year.
 
Last up for now. Cover bets for the main ones in the Pertemps:

Kilbricken Storm 22/1
Royal Thief 28/1

I know Kilbricken Storm has been mentioned either earlier on the thread or elsewhere and now that I've had a wee dekko at it I go along with what was said. Looks like a season-plus plot.

Royal Thief is more of a gut instinct punt. Can't imagine him turning up if HdB didn't think his mark was workable.
 
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swedish chef said:
Hexham 5.30 Dionysis 100/1 betfair sportsbook - showed enough in an Irish Bumper and Hurdle race for W P Mullins to risk a small e/way at the price. Although PU in Hurdle race behind some very good horses - a lot of those tailed off and pulled up have run well since. This looks much more his level unless they are trying a couple of runs to get a h'cap mark? I will put in a lay on the exchange @21.0 in running and hope to get a free bet at close to 80/1.
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Win part laid off at 21.0 before race starts - I will probably let place part run? Down as low as 11/1 in places 16/1 best price now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Last up for now. Cover bets for the main ones in the Pertemps:

Kilbricken Storm 22/1
Royal Thief 28/1

I know Kilbricken Storm has been mentioned either earlier on the thread or elsewhere and now that I've had a wee dekko at it I go along with what was said. Looks like a season-plus plot.

Royal Thief is more of a gut instinct punt. Can't imagine him turning up if HdB didn't think his mark was workable.
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I backed Kilbricken Storm a while back. Was one of several horses that someone in a racing club I'm a member of said was running off it's last winning mark [or something like that anyway....]. Hang on; got me Kilbricken Storms mixed up with me Kilfilum Crosses....[keep finding little ante post bets hiding in dark recesses of my betting account; had Putthekettle on in one of them; no idea why I backed it at the time but think someone on here mentioned it....]
 
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Pertemps final

Rapper looks to be on an upward curve and may be overpriced at 25/1 (SkyBet 6 places).

Closely matched with Skandiburg.on New Year’s Day running and may have prevailed that day if the rider had held on to the reins up the run-in.

Dickie Johnson up today


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viking said:
Pertemps final

Rapper looks to be on an upward curve and may be overpriced at 25/1 (SkyBet 6 places).

Closely matched with Skandiburg.on New Year’s Day running and may have prevailed that day if the rider had held on to the reins up the run-in.

Dickie Johnson up today


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I second this. Also reckon he is a live each way chance.

Relegate is a threat to them all. See how it pans out.
 
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