The Long Shot Thread

A couple of good picks lately Dan and a nice one from Marb too although I wish marbs hadn't run quite as well as it did I put 4 in a combi trifecta and hit the 1-2-4-5 , shame I missed marbs post.
 
Cheers. Computable is right up there as high priority on my tracker list now. I eagerly await his next entry! My other trackers include Pretty Jewel whose run when beating Ingleby Hollow stood out as good form. Both those horses have scored in the last weeks or so. Explain and Gossiping are two others I'm expecting to win races this season. We'll see which one's of those two gets declared for the first handicap at Chester on Friday. I'm hoping to only see Gossiping's name in the final declarations, Explain does have course form at Chester though, so it's not implausible he might take his chance with a low weight.
 
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I put HEROES WELCOME 600tipp up last night at 20/1 and its drifted out to 28/1 which is a bad sign considering its trained by tony martin for JP so ive had another bet on him at 16/1 in bet 365s extra place market 9places.
He caught my eye a couple of times and he steps up in trip tonight on his 2nd hcap start.
Of course tony martin is the only one that knows if his hcap mark is too high or nottime will tell.
 
Outsider said:
I put HEROES WELCOME 600tipp up last night at 20/1 and its drifted out to 28/1 which is a bad sign considering its trained by tony martin for JP so ive had another bet on him at 16/1 in bet 365s extra place market 9places.
He caught my eye a couple of times and he steps up in trip tonight on his 2nd hcap start.
Of course tony martin is the only one that knows if his hcap mark is too high or nottime will tell.
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Drifted to 33s and then backed into 8/1 and finished last..its a funny old game.
 
Haydock 2.00 Enniscoffey Oscar should outrun the 20/1 available with Bet365 (and others) back at 3n on a flat track with decent ground. Not sure he's well handicapped enough to win but worth an e/w punt at the price
 
Asc 4.00 Firmament ew 22/1 - I have another longshot in the race but am waiting to see if I can get at least 33/1, maybe 40/1, later this morning. In the meantime, Firmament is my main saver and I toyed with making him the main bet (but that vote goes to Keyser Soze from earlier on the thread). Firmament has never won at seven furlongs but four of his top six RPRs have been at the trip and he was unlucky not to win a couple of them. He’s 7lbs lower than when recording the two top figures so he has to be taken seriously here but in a field of 29 he’ll also need a bit of luck. We also know O'Meara likes to raid these big races here and Tudhope comes down for it when he could have a possible winner in So Beloved at Haydock.
 
Warwick 6.30. Paddy's Runner has slipped well below his last winning mark and Harry Stock takes off a useful 5 lbs. Today's good ground will suit, and this is a weak looking race, with easy reasons to get all of those at the head of the market beaten. If you also consider he would have won all bar 3 or 4 of all the races he's contested off this mark with the 5lb claim he looks to be outstanding value. There could be one or two hiding behind a good mark early in their careers but there's no early money for them, so 33/1 each way for Paddy's Runner looks huge.
 
Hay 2.00 Sir Mangan ew 28/1 - I think I may have mentioned this one before on the thread. I have him within a pound of my top-rated horse (which I'm opposing, perhaps to my cost) on his earlier hurdles form this season and I'm hoping the first-time blinkers and better ground will allow him to rediscover that level.

Hay 3.10 All Set To Go ew 20/1 - Another I've mentioned before on the thread. He's very well handicapped on his form for Paul Nicholls before his enforced absence and for once it seems there's money for him today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Asc 4.00 Firmament ew 22/1 - I have another longshot in the race but am waiting to see if I can get at least 33/1, maybe 40/1, later this morning.
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The other in the race is Masham Star ew 33/1 - there is no chance of better than 33s with two of the first few in the betting non-runners. Masham Star (apparently it’s pronounced ‘Massam’) is riskier than Firmament but the price offers compensation for the risks. He could simply be a Johnston ‘special’. He gets to race off no less than 15lbs lower than his rising AW mark but by the end of July last season he had recorded six RPR turf performances of 100 and more, peaking at 106 at Newmarket in July. He had been off 101 on turf in the first half of the season. He gets to race off just 88 here. He hit form in May last season after some moderate runs in Dubai and one on the AW at Newcastle.
 
I like Masham star too Des and already have a little involvement in him. In the Victoria cup though there are 2 proper long shots I like Burnt Sugar 80/1 and Brilliant Vangard 100/1 probably keener on the former as think he might be drawn better and BV could really do with the mile here but worth a pop at that price imo. Sorry no time for reasoning again but thought I'd flag them as worth having a look at.
 
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Hexham 2.20 Voila Eric 25/1 W.HILL - Split, Report To Base (139) & Brave Eagle (134) in a PTP 2 years ago. Was tailed off in a flat race on only run under rues last year but betting suggested better was expected. No doubt what ever happened in that race is the reason he hasn't seen a racecourse for 15 months. Hopefully he is much better than that and problems have been sorted out?
 
Im a sucker for punishment,bad draw and too much weight but ive just done THE GRAPE ESCAPE 28/1 10place market bet 365
 
Running total

W -6. P +8.25. Total +2.25

Couple of selections today in the low grade races away from the main meetings.

Thirsk 5.45 Kodimoor 40/1 B365, Betway and Coral. 1/4 1-3

This looks a decent little race for the grade with some of the usual northern names you'd expect. Kodimoor is a horse I know a bit about and if I'm honest I'm a bit surprised he's turned out to be a 50s handicapper.

The rational today is mainly price related. I think he's overpriced and should be a 16s or 20/1 shot. He's had a couple of runs over the last month and should now be race sharp. He gets the assistance of Rob Fitzpatrick who has won on him before and he ran ok last time at Ponte in a slightly higher grade.

We're talking exposed handicappers and a lot of the form is intertwined, so there's little point attempting to unravel it. There's a couple of others in the field such as Groundworker and Culloden who could be better win prospects but I'm siding with Kodimoor. I don't believe he's pace dependent and if anything, I suspect he could be back in the field early and will hopefully be running on late with them stopping up front.

Good luck.
 
viking said:
Haydock 2.00 Enniscoffey Oscar should outrun the 20/1 available with Bet365 (and others) back at 3n on a flat track with decent ground. Not sure he's well handicapped enough to win but worth an e/w punt at the price
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Not too sure as watching on mobile with no commentary but it looked like he had every chance but fluffed the last and just got ran out of the places


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Desert Orchid said:
Asc 4.00 Firmament ew 22/1 - I have another longshot in the race but am waiting to see if I can get at least 33/1, maybe 40/1, later this morning. In the meantime, Firmament is my main saver and I toyed with making him the main bet (but that vote goes to Keyser Soze from earlier on the thread). Firmament has never won at seven furlongs but four of his top six RPRs have been at the trip and he was unlucky not to win a couple of them. He’s 7lbs lower than when recording the two top figures so he has to be taken seriously here but in a field of 29 he’ll also need a bit of luck. We also know O'Meara likes to raid these big races here and Tudhope comes down for it when he could have a possible winner in So Beloved at Haydock.
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Desert Orchid said:
The other in the race is Masham Star ew 33/1 - there is no chance of better than 33s with two of the first few in the betting non-runners. Masham Star (apparently it’s pronounced ‘Massam’) is riskier than Firmament but the price offers compensation for the risks. He could simply be a Johnston ‘special’. He gets to race off no less than 15lbs lower than his rising AW mark but by the end of July last season he had recorded six RPR turf performances of 100 and more, peaking at 106 at Newmarket in July. He had been off 101 on turf in the first half of the season. He gets to race off just 88 here. He hit form in May last season after some moderate runs in Dubai and one on the AW at Newcastle.
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Fvck. Second and third on the wrong side.
 
Danny said:
I like Masham star too Des and already have a little involvement in him. In the Victoria cup though there are 2 proper long shots I like Burnt Sugar 80/1 and Brilliant Vangard 100/1 probably keener on the former as think he might be drawn better and BV could really do with the mile here but worth a pop at that price imo. Sorry no time for reasoning again but thought I'd flag them as worth having a look at.
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Good run for your money with burnt sugar.Danny
 
Yes mate didn't think he was given the best of rides in truth. At one point today I saw he went 100/1 which was absolutely insane. Really fancied him today but alas it wasn't to be.

Not really surprised Brilliant Vangard didn't feature but hopefully he'll get dropped a couple of pounds and be a similar price for the hunt cup.
 
Maruco said:
Warwick 6.30. Paddy's Runner has slipped well below his last winning mark and Harry Stock takes off a useful 5 lbs. Today's good ground will suit, and this is a weak looking race, with easy reasons to get all of those at the head of the market beaten. If you also consider he would have won all bar 3 or 4 of all the races he's contested off this mark with the 5lb claim he looks to be outstanding value. There could be one or two hiding behind a good mark early in their careers but there's no early money for them, so 33/1 each way for Paddy's Runner looks huge.
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Paddy's Runner was backed in to 10/1, so there was no shortage of money for him. Unfortunately he was made to do too much work early to get his position and faded into fifth after the last. He'll be winning soon though, probably over a slightly shorter trip, and possibly with a better jockey in the plate.
 
Tomorrow at york 255 i like LUCKY BEGGAR 33/1.
He is out of the hcap so he looks up against it,but has won off higher last july and ran well last time.has won on g/f and is well drawn in stall 2.
 
LB was one I expected to put up myself when I first saw the race but after going through all the form I've all but dismissed it as regressive. It's also hard to predict the draw at York. Hope it runs well for you though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
LB was one I expected to put up myself when I first saw the race but after going through all the form I've all but dismissed it as regressive. It's also hard to predict the draw at York. Hope it runs well for you though.
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Being out of the hcap is the worry,only the trainer knows if hes really got a chance as he is going to ruin a good hcap mark but it is for 18 grand.. i thougt he ran well last time. Im only interested because of the price.
 
5.55 Bath - Vals Magic Touch 50/1 Bet365 1/4odds 1,2
33s generally.

I think this one is a bit overpriced based on its last run. Blinkers go on first time, Franny Norton booked off what should be a workable mark of 50.

A bit gutted there's only 7 going to post especially for a sprint handicap at Bath. It is a class 5 as well with some animals rated in the low 70s so the hope is very much that this filly by Captain Gerrard is well in and improving with racing.

Another selection coming up shortly and update to the P/L
 
5.35 York- Rake's Progress 25s Bet365, PP and Will Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4

This looks a minefield but it could be the source of a big priced runner/winner.

I'm taking a chance on Heather Main's gelding. I'm of the view that 79 will be a fair mark now back up to his ideal trip after a fair comeback last month. Gerald Mosse takes the ride and hopefully it can be a successful one.

No point really going into too much detail. 8 or 9 could win this. I hope mine can too and we keep the place terms.

Good luck.
 
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