The Long Shot Thread

Profits from the thread however may be about to take a small dip as I take another ante-post stab and by my reckoning Rebecca Curtis has a chance of landing back to back feature races after Joe Farrell winning the Scottish Nash comes Relentless Dreamer 40/1 for the Bet365 Gold Cup or as I know it the Whitbread. Its hard to make a case that this horse has loads in hand on any line of form and I'd struggle to make a case outside of it winning anything other than Saturdays feature. I suppose with this one its about when elements combine. I've long held the view that this horse requires 2 things to show its best. The first being a decent surface with the ground being currently good and with a weather forecast to match I'm hopeful that the first box will be ticked. The second thing is an extended trip. He's had one go over further than 3 miles in the Edinburgh National over 4m1f in soft testing ground and he went well for a long way before not really seeing out the trip. The winner was carrying only 9-7 whilst the second Missed Approach and Relentless Dreamer were both carrying 11-6. Missed Approach of course went on to win at the festival and as such re-opposes here 10lb worse off for 10 lengths which over that sort of trip should reverse the result without taking into consideration that I think Relentless dreamer will be better for the drop back in trip and better for a firmer surface. Missed Approach currently 7/1 and the selection 40's it already blindly looks like a value poke. Where Missed Approach went for the festival and many others in the race have either taken up engagements at one of the spring festivals or even the Scottish Nash Relentless Dreamer has skipped them all to come here (I hope). One race in between the Edinburgh National and this which was a hot 3 mile handicap at Kempton in February where he went well for quite a way before making a mistake but still wasn't entirely disgraced there. So it looks as though he'll be a fresher horse than most going into the race. It looks and ideal prep. I have no idea what James Bowen is up to on Saturday but he has ridden this in the past with the horse set to carry as little as 10-1 anyway if Blaklion lines up. If James Bowen hops on board its sure to command a bit of attention in the betting and I'm never against a horse carrying a feather weight in a staying chase. I just think whatever happens 40/1 with Bet Victor or Paddy power is a stonking bit of value.

I also have been a follower of Caroles Destrier who might bounce back coming back to Sandown off a lowly mark but the current 20's about him doing so is a bit stingy given current form so I'll wait until closer the day to have a bit of back up on that one.

As you like fellas.
 
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Im going to put one up for tomorrow but im not too optimistic.
Design matters went into my note book although his form doesnt read well,but its interesting to see the trainer has won the last two runnings of this race.66/1
 
You're certainly not alone in fancying the trainer to do it again mate some real good money for it and a nice price you've snaffled. Best of luck.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I suspect we'll never get 25/1 Keyser Soze again. It will be interesting to see what kind of markup Timeform suggests. The best horse in that race by a mile.
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Timeform suggest 4lbs purely on times, which would have been enough to win and was the highest markup of the first twelve home. I don't imagine it will take into account the ground conceded by moving sharply across to the right. The form book also says he went left out of the gates before that.

Definitely one that got away... for now :cool:
 
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This might not be my only longshot for the day. One or two are hovering just below the 20/1 threshhold and might drift through the morning.

Anyroads, first up today is:

San 3.35 Theatre Guide 33/1, 5 places - Theatre Guide has a few runs that require forgiving since he looked at least as good as ever first time up in the Badger Ales when not fully wound up and may have been campaigned with a view to getting his mark lower than when a half-length third in this race last season. If so, it has worked a treat; he’s 3lbs lower. He's joint second-top on my figures so definitely worth an each-way saver.

Edit - I've just noticed Benbens is 50/1. That price is wrong. He should be within a couple of points of Sugar Baron. I can't back him to win but if I can get 12/1 place-only I'll probably take a bit of that too.
 
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I like Annseanachai Cliste 33/1 Bet365 in the Boylesports chase at Punchestown. Cracking run behind Paper Lantern last time condidering even 3 mile on heavy ground is probably a little short of what this one needs. Better off with Paper Lantern at the weights. Lots better off with Poormans hill on previous form. This is a tougher race no doubt than his last 2 contests one I'm convinced he'd have won if he hadn't have fallen early on. He will improve fpr going further and by my reckoning should be no bigger than 10's maybe 12's. In truth I backed him at 25's last night as soon as he opened up because I thought that was a stonking price 33/1 is ridiculous. Tough race need the usual luck in running and all that but certainly holds as good a chance as any other horse in the line up with a clear round.

I'd said earlier in the week that I'd want a better surface for Relentless dreamer to go on. The simple science of accurate going descriptions is alluding us once again. 7.0 the latest going stick reading I've seen which would be perfect but I think that was possibly taken some time in last July. Who knows ? The better the ground the better his chance but I have the feeling it'll be soft but not desperate. Carloes destrier was the other one I mentioned would probably also like decent ground but handles a bit of cut. Ridiculously well handicapped now but is one of those that could well be gone at the game. Been backed into 18/1 I think that's probably a loyal legion of followers who've done their dough following this horse part way over the cliff and are now prepared as I have been to give it one last chance although I've can only back it on the nut...hack up or pull up job !

We await the going updates.
 
I found I couldn't say no to the 100 on offer about Benbens on the exchange to the minimum stake permissible (£2). The ground is maybe against it and he's clearly the least-fancied of the NTD trio but he also had Calett Mad entered and it was good enough to win the other day.

Other longshots I've dabbled with:

San 5.15 Landin 28/1, Zubayr 28/1 & Le Breuil 22x

These are really just sickness insurance bets as I've put certainly the first two of them up recently only for them to disappoint. They're still well handicapped. Le Breuil has been on my radar for a while but I missed its win at the start of the month as it was a small race I didn't look at. I have it rated a potential winner of a race of this nature on its best form of last season but it still wouldn't be my main fancy in this race.
 
I can't ignore BenBens either; the 13 year olds this year seem to be a good vintage #c'montheoldies!
 
I am in the Benbens camp,ive done him at 50s 1st 5 and couldnt resist a go in bet 365 extra place markets.
150/1 2places and 20/1 in the 10 place market.

In the 500p ive done UNDRESSED at 50/1 stays forever but is a bit hit or miss.
 
San 1.50 Grapevine 20/1 - This one has now drifted out to qualify but that in itself is a worry as it is also considerably longer at betfair. He was a 90 horse on the Flat so should really be a 132 hurdler but gets in here off 118. The notion that he could be a 130+ hurdler is backed up by his most recent run in which he was backed into 7/4f to beat a 129-rated opponent. That was his third run over hurdles, qualifying him for a handicap mark, but those three runs turned out to be quiet ones, telling us little about his ability. He also took in a jumpers’ bumper in which he hacked up but that race wouldn’t count for a handicap assessment so in some respects Hendo has let us see that the horse can run.
 
Danny said:
Profits from the thread however may be about to take a small dip as I take another ante-post stab and by my reckoning Rebecca Curtis has a chance of landing back to back feature races after Joe Farrell winning the Scottish Nash comes Relentless Dreamer 40/1 for the Bet365 Gold Cup or as I know it the Whitbread. I

I also have been a follower of Caroles Destrier who might bounce back coming back to Sandown off a lowly mark but the current 20's about him doing so is a bit stingy given current form so I'll wait until closer the day to have a bit of back up on that one.
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Two good picks, Danny. Well done!
 
Well done again Danny :thumbsup:

Sandown 5.15 Ordo Ab Chao 25/1 - If he has come on for his run and doesn't bounce he looks on a nice mark to outrun his odds.
 
Cheers lads would have hoped for a more positive ride on Relentless Dreamer but can't really grumble too much.
 
I'm putting this up on the ante-post thread too as a qualifier there.

2000 Guineas - U S Navy Flag 20/1 (ew) - I've been crunching some numbers this morning and keep coming back to this one. I'm not convinced the other Coolmores are ahead of him in the domestic pecking order. Some of his 2yo form is outstanding and I'm more than happy to ignore his reappearance run the other week behind the favourite on ground he'd have hated. Gustav Klimt's new OR of 112 would be nowhere near good enough to win the Guineas and is 10lbs below U S Navy Flag's rating going into that race. I'm happy to believe that race was more about getting the latter ready for this weekend. Assuming he gets there fit and well, 20/1 about a horse with his credentials is absolutely knockout value.
 
Another for both this thread and the ante-post one:

2000 Guineas - Raid 50/1 (ew) - I'm surprised this one is as far below the radar as it is. It was clearly ridden not to win the Greenham, in my opinion, and will almost certainly improve a lot for the outing and then a bit more for the step up in trip. I half-expect Roaring Lion to chicken out of a rematch with Masar leaving Raid as the owners' runner. If they think he has a better chance than Roaring Lion then should he be 50/1? I definitely expect him to beat James Garfield (25/1) and maybe even Expert Eye (12/1). I honestly can't see him actually winning but I can't see him being 50/1 on the day either so the place portion now might be more than double the place-only price on the day.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm putting this up on the ante-post thread too as a qualifier there.

2000 Guineas - U S Navy Flag 20/1 (ew) - I've been crunching some numbers this morning and keep coming back to this one. I'm not convinced the other Coolmores are ahead of him in the domestic pecking order. Some of his 2yo form is outstanding and I'm more than happy to ignore his reappearance run the other week behind the favourite on ground he'd have hated. Gustav Klimt's new OR of 112 would be nowhere near good enough to win the Guineas and is 10lbs below U S Navy Flag's rating going into that race. I'm happy to believe that race was more about getting the latter ready for this weekend. Assuming he gets there fit and well, 20/1 about a horse with his credentials is absolutely knockout value.
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I sort of felt the same way about this one but haven't backed the opinion. I will seriously kick myself in the nuts ( if that's possible) should he win on Saturday. Its probably past experiences with backing these sort of types down the years that has put me off where the form says yes but the market and to some extent the O'Brien camp say no. Just on that last run where Ryan has chosen GK over Us Navy flag which looked a strange choice but then was certainly justified tells me they know that's the one. That's not to say that O Brien doesn't win with 2nd 3rd and 4th strings on a regular basis of course but it was just enough to put me off.

I wasn't going to bother mentioning this one for today for a whole host of reasons but seen as I'm already scribbling might as well add it on. Professor 28/1 in the lucky last at Ascot today might be of some interest but I'd suggest only a small interest. Apprentice race for a start and a horse who'd been woefully out of form for a long time but maybe in his next couple of outings he may be able to pick up a prize now coming back to turf. He's been switched to William Knights yard and had 2 runs on the All weather which haven't shown much, he'd also been on the All weather on his last few runs for Micheal Attwater. As such, although officially a few pounds out of the handicap today he's still 10lb lower than his last turf attempts. Last season he'd returned from a season off and his first couple of runs didn't show much but his runs in late May early June certainly produced figures that would see him winning off this sort of mark which is a stone lower than a good second at Goodwood.

Today might not be the day, a mile is probably not ideal but he may still be worth a small investment and he's one to keep an eye on in the coming weeks as I'm sure he can pick up a race at some point and probably at a fair old price.
 
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Danny

Ascot 16.55 Professor Professor isn’t showing me a great deal at the moment so is probably best watched. W.Knight
 
Cheers for that LM its no real bother for me as said I haven't had anything major on it he's one I'll back tentatively until he goes in or I finally decide he's that he's gone at the game.

I gave up listening to Trainers, jockey's, stable lads thoughts a long time ago. Not completely as I sometimes try to read between the lines of what people are saying but tbh Trainers are wrong about their horses as often as good punters are. On this occasion though I'm not too far from convinced that he's right and the horse is probably best watched but at 28/1 I've taken a small pop.
 
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A bit frustrating that one as all the pace looked to be high but for some reason the majority shifted the other way Professor isolated tracking the slower group which he did best of but could only manage a frustrating 6th overall.

:(
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm putting this up on the ante-post thread too as a qualifier there.

2000 Guineas - U S Navy Flag 20/1 (ew) - I've been crunching some numbers this morning and keep coming back to this one. I'm not convinced the other Coolmores are ahead of him in the domestic pecking order. Some of his 2yo form is outstanding and I'm more than happy to ignore his reappearance run the other week behind the favourite on ground he'd have hated. Gustav Klimt's new OR of 112 would be nowhere near good enough to win the Guineas and is 10lbs below U S Navy Flag's rating going into that race. I'm happy to believe that race was more about getting the latter ready for this weekend. Assuming he gets there fit and well, 20/1 about a horse with his credentials is absolutely knockout value.
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N/R off to the French version.
 
Clonmel 8.00 Lady Mona Lisa each way.

This one has been running over jumps for a while now, and now she's back on the flat I reckon this kind of trip will be right up her street. A lowly mark of 44 plus a further 5lb's off from a good claimer (son of the trainer on board for the first time), plus the longer trip makes her massively overpriced despite having not shown a lot previously. It's a pretty poor race, and while I could make a better case for two or three others, there are sixteen runners and four places up for grabs. I'm certainly not making a case for her winning but I've backed her ew at split stakes with 365 50/1 four places and 25/1 8 places as a bit of extra cover.
 
Clonmel 7.30 The Graduate 25/1 - this is in my tracker as will win a h'cap. I suspect I put it there for a hurdles race. With the stable being a gambling stable I doubt very much today is the day but will have 1pt e/way just in case.
 
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