The Long Shot Thread

Outsider said:
Chatez a NR,pity. So I'm going for WAARIZ 40/1 omeara has an excellent record in this race,a winner,2-2nds a 3rd and 4th in the last 4 yrs.
Also runs Humbert.but 40s looks good.also done it at 18s 9 places.
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I had bet Waarif EW myself earlier in day. Watching race again it looked as if the horse was struggling for room on a couple of occasions. No chance with the winner but was certainly not miles away from a place. Finished 10th which was a bit hard on you. One to keep on the right side of I think, come up the weights substantially since beating the course record at Carlisle last year, but might find a big handicap at a nice price.
 
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Tabletop said:
I had bet Waarif EW myself earlier in day. Watching race again it looked as if the horse was struggling for room on a couple of occasions. No chance with the winner but was certainly not miles away from a place. Finished 10th which was a bit hard on you. One to keep on the right side of I think, come up the weights substantially since beating the course record at Carlisle last year, but might find a big handicap at a nice price.
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Yes,I agree with you.its gone in my alerts.
 
Having another go on Idilico 2nd race at Ascot tomorrow. Have taken 24.0 on the machine. Quietly fancied this l/t/o but he stepped on the 3rd hurdle and unseated the jockey.
 
I had Praeceps as a big eye catcher in the Fred Winter, and I backed Idilico in the same race. I’ve backed them both ew in the race tomorrow and also the reverse forecast.
 
I've got to do Camacho chief 310D 25/1.this time of year we dont know really what to expect and it steps up to 6f and faster going.when I put it in my alerts I said I'd prefer someone else riding it,but it seems Paula Muir will keep the ride.

I will be following this horse and 25s seems a nice price.

NR
 
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Maruco said:
I had Praeceps as a big eye catcher in the Fred Winter, and I backed Idilico in the same race. I’ve backed them both ew in the race tomorrow and also the reverse forecast.
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For me the worry with Praeceps is that he must have had a hard race to have done so well against the pace. If he's over it he wins, I reckon, but as I say I'm not sure if he's over it. Obviously doesn't qualify for the thread, though, so I'll double him with Caid Du Lin for a 30-ish/1 double :)
 
In the 2.00 Doncaster i think that Portledge represents a bit of value @ 20/1 currently, wouldn't expect that price to last. One of the few horses that loves the AW surface at Newcastle and has been running there all winter/spring and is assured of being race hard fit. Has decent form at Doncaster last year when 3rd in a C4 in june off 80. The 2nd horse Big Storm Coming getting 6lbs from Portledge won next 2 C4s and is now rated 14 lbs higher. Also Esprit De Corps currently 2nd fav at 7/1 was btn nearly 2 lengths behind Portledge at Newcastle and is only a 1lb better off, drawn 2, who knows but has to be value at 20/1 EW 1st 4 imo.
 
swedish chef said:
Having another go on Idilico 2nd race at Ascot tomorrow. Have taken 24.0 on the machine. Quietly fancied this l/t/o but he stepped on the 3rd hurdle and unseated the jockey.
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Agree Idilico looks overpriced for this. Now generally available at 25/1


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viking said:
Agree Idilico looks overpriced for this. Now generally available at 25/1


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That put the hex on Idilico alright. Rejected the winner as I figured he’d have had a hard enough race last weekend [emoji849]


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Musselburgh 2.45 Fillydelphia 20/1 - 4lb out of the h'cap but does have C/D form off higher marks. The bit that interests me is new trainer Liam Bailey who I believe was head man with David O'Meara (not certain though)? Has had 3 runners on the flat this season, a 25/1 2nd btn 1L, a 20/1 2nd btn a hd and an unplaced 66/1 shot btn only 6L. I'm just hoping he can work the same magic with the selection.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've taken a pop at Azzuri in the same race at 40/1 ew 5 places.

There are bits and bobs of his Irish form that suggest he shouldn't be that kind of price and how often does a Dan/Harry Skelton runner go off at that kind of price in a decent handicap?

Just a small bet, though, for a wee bit of value.
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Here's a curiosity...

This one went out to 50/1 that day and didn't show. Going through my figures for his race tomorrow (Red Rum) I decided to give him another each-way pop, expecting to get 50/1 again. After all, in its three runs for Skelton, Azzuri has been 20/1, 14/1 and 50/1 and beaten an aggregate of 135 lengths in lesser races than this. So imagine my bewilderment upon seeing it at 9/1 best. :mad: :mad:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Here's a curiosity...

This one went out to 50/1 that day and didn't show. Going through my figures for his race tomorrow (Red Rum) I decided to give him another each-way pop, expecting to get 50/1 again. After all, in its three runs for Skelton, Azzuri has been 20/1, 14/1 and 50/1 and beaten an aggregate of 135 lengths in lesser races than this. So imagine my bewilderment upon seeing it at 9/1 best. :mad: :mad:
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Part of me wants a saver on it as he’s clearly kept this back for this race but it’s almost like the bookies have priced it up so short expecting a gamble on it because of the Ch’tibello Cheltenham win.

Not sure if they’ll be good enough but my two against the field will be Theflyingportrait (66/1 in places) and Champagne at Tara (20/1 in places). Both run well at the course and both have shrewd trainers. Hopefully one can place for me at least.
 
nickf88 said:
Not sure if they’ll be good enough but my two against the field will be Theflyingportrait (66/1 in places) and Champagne at Tara (20/1 in places). Both run well at the course and both have shrewd trainers. Hopefully one can place for me at least.
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My heart sank when I saw this last night, nickf88, as I was planning to put up Theflyingportrait as well and hoped the price didn't disappear. After chewing it over I decided to wait till this morning to see if the price and place offers were still there, which they are.

You may recall I put Theflyingportrait as one of my Grand Annual bets at 50/1 so was always likely to take out some sickness insurance today anyway. I don't know what, if anything, went wrong at Cheltenham but he was never in it from the start. But even if my figure for him is wrong I don't believe it can be as wrong as 66/1 wrong! So I'm with you on this one.

But he isn't my main bet in the race and neither is Azzuri which will only carry a saver.

The main bet is Cracking Find 22/1 ew. I strongly fancy him to see off everything else and half hope I am over-rating TFP and Azzuri after all. I'll be okay if one or both of those two beat him but on balance I think he has the best profile.

(I wouldn't discourage anyone from backing Champagne At Tara at 20s or thereabouts either as he's well up my ratings table.)
 
3.25 Summerville Boy ew 28/1 - This bet is as much about sickness insurance as anything else to be honest. I backed him in both his runs this season in the belief he would be a serious Champion Hurdle contender so I was at least relieved that they found a problem with him (hairline fracture) and have given him time to recuperate. He was 33/1 last night which I thought was huge but that's gone and I only just managed to get 28/1. It isn't difficult to make cases for opposing everything else in the race and I just hope next year's Betfair or County isn't the plan because if it is he won't be sighted.
 
Desert Orchid said:
My heart sank when I saw this last night, nickf88, as I was planning to put up Theflyingportrait as well and hoped the price didn't disappear. After chewing it over I decided to wait till this morning to see if the price and place offers were still there, which they are.

You may recall I put Theflyingportrait as one of my Grand Annual bets at 50/1 so was always likely to take out some sickness insurance today anyway. I don't know what, if anything, went wrong at Cheltenham but he was never in it from the start. But even if my figure for him is wrong I don't believe it can be as wrong as 66/1 wrong! So I'm with you on this one.

But he isn't my main bet in the race and neither is Azzuri which will only carry a saver.

The main bet is Cracking Find 22/1 ew. I strongly fancy him to see off everything else and half hope I am over-rating TFP and Azzuri after all. I'll be okay if one or both of those two beat him but on balance I think he has the best profile.

(I wouldn't discourage anyone from backing Champagne At Tara at 20s or thereabouts either as he's well up my ratings table.)
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Cracking Find my other one for the race as I was up until 1:30am studying today’s card and I like the look of a Sue Smith front runner, hopefully with a few pound in hand as she’s one of the shrewdest trainers around in my opinion. Glad you’ve got good figures for CF and TFP, let’s see how they get on. Good luck Desert Orchid and anyone playing today.
 
A few I'm having a go at today all small e/ways

Aintree
4.05 Greensalt 40/1 & Road To Riches 25/1
4.40 Champagne At Tara 20/1 & Demi Sang 66/1

Taunton 3.10 Zero Grand 26.0 on the machine as can 3 places.
 
Desert Orchid said:
3.25 Summerville Boy ew 28/1 - This bet is as much about sickness insurance as anything else to be honest. I backed him in both his runs this season in the belief he would be a serious Champion Hurdle contender so I was at least relieved that they found a problem with him (hairline fracture) and have given him time to recuperate. He was 33/1 last night which I thought was huge but that's gone and I only just managed to get 28/1. It isn't difficult to make cases for opposing everything else in the race and I just hope next year's Betfair or County isn't the plan because if it is he won't be sighted.
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The race pretty much fell apart as I'd half-anticipated but SB was never looking like being involved. Looks like big handicaps - or chasing - next season.
 
I'm going to have to go back and check my high rating for Theflyingportrait. He ran a lot better yesterday but was toast by the home turn. That was disappointing.

First up today is in the 1.45 - Kobrouk 20/1 - I don't have a rating for him but considering how successful Nicky Henderson is in festival handicaps and how well Valtor and Janika have run first time up for him Kobrouk has to be of interest with De Boinville riding on its stable debut. This is my main bet in the race.

In the same race, I've taken 25/1 Joke Dancer - I put this up ahead of one of the Cheltenham handicaps and it was a morning mover (Pricewise maybe?) but was taken out due to the ground. He then went to Kelso but was beaten after a couple of hurdles so maybe had a little issue.

I'll probably stick some coffee money on Outsider's suggestion Mount Mews as I have it top-rated but that refusal to race last time is a concern.

The Topham is the only other race for longshots today. I'll post them later.
 
Topham longshots (small stakes/maximum odds):

O O Seven 25/1
San Benedeto 22/1
Bigmartre 40/1
Mercian Prince 33/1
Divine Spear 50/1

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These are my only bets in the race (ie I'm not interested in anything shorter than these).

O O Seven had the Ultima field in trouble at this trip but didn't get home. A similar show will do me here.

San Benedeto is still well handicapped despite going up for Newbury and there are a couple of form lines that suggest it was an even better race than I had it at the time.

Bigmartre was one some of us put up at the festival but he never ran his race. Hopefully he can here.

Mercian Prince is a bit in and out but on a going day can be a sight to behold. Could give Amy Murphy and Jack Quinlan another big win.

Divine Spear is top-rated on his old form and I wouldn't be surprised if he'd been trained for this.
 
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Fact Of The Matter 50/1 in the Topham. You want something prominent in the race, that can hold its position and will still be running on at the end over two miles five.

He's been doing most of his racing over 3 miles plus more recently (was good over the intermediate trip though), including over the cross country fences at Cheltenham, but for me is a bit too keen over an extended trip and runs out of gas in the best company. He'll relish this today, and whilst he might get nabbed by something with a it more toe, I think he'll go close. I think he's feasibly handicapped, carries 10st 4lb as opposed to level weights against the likes of Tiger Roll, and often Cheltenham's x-county fences relate well over the National fences.

This is his second run after a wind op which is often a positive, and he's unconsidered and a big rick at 50/1.
 
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Last one for today:

3.25 God's Own 20/1 ew w/o Waiting Patiently - I suspect one of the front three will bomb for whatever reason. God's Own was still travelling very strongly when pulling up in the Champion Chase because Brennan thought he had gone wrong but it was a cut which has reportedly healed. I reckon he wouldn't have been beaten far that day and if he can run his race today he could be in the mix but probably not good enough to win unless all three under-perform.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm going to have to go back and check my high rating for Theflyingportrait. He ran a lot better yesterday but was toast by the home turn. That was disappointing.

First up today is in the 1.45 - Kobrouk 20/1 - I don't have a rating for him but considering how successful Nicky Henderson is in festival handicaps and how well Valtor and Janika have run first time up for him Kobrouk has to be of interest with De Boinville riding on its stable debut. This is my main bet in the race.

In the same race, I've taken 25/1 Joke Dancer - I put this up ahead of one of the Cheltenham handicaps and it was a morning mover (Pricewise maybe?) but was taken out due to the ground. He then went to Kelso but was beaten after a couple of hurdles so maybe had a little issue.

I'll probably stick some coffee money on Outsider's suggestion Mount Mews as I have it top-rated but that refusal to race last time is a concern.

The Topham is the only other race for longshots today. I'll post them later.
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This is getting scary. My only two bets in the race lol. Hope for better luck today than yesterday. Good luck all.
 
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