The Next President?

As McCain slumps in the polls, the possibility is being talked about as one last desperate gamble:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/29/opinion/29kristol.html
http://www.anonymousliberal.com/2008/09/will-mccain-play-wright-card.html

McCain is all the way out to 3.4 on Betfair if you think it'll work...

From http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonat...rops_Rezko_Ayers_and_yes_Wright_on_Obama.html

Conservative judicial group drops Rezko, Ayers and, yes, Wright on Obama

The conservative Judicial Confirmation Network goes up today with an ad reminding voters in two key states about Obama's ties to Tony Rezko, Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright.

Representatives for the group say it will be a "$1 million ad and grassroots effort" around the veep debate tomorrow and the opening of the new Supreme Court session Monday.

It will air on networks in the smaller and more inexpensive markets across Ohio and Michigan. In Ohio, Zanesville, Lima, Toledo, Youngstown, and Wheeling-Steubenville. In Michigan, Marquette, Traverse City-Cadillac, Lansing, Kalamazoo-Battle Creek, Alpena. They're also buying time in Erie, Pennsylvania.
 
Doesn't sound as if "I'm John McCain, and I endorse this message" will be appearing on it. Might give him the chance to distance himself from it a bit and look a bit more dignified and statesmen like, whilst letting his henchmen fire the bullets. A classic George H Bush and Bill Clinton tactic. MInd you, with the mood of the country currently focused more on the economy than Islamic radicals, I'm not sure I'd be too quick to encourage this approach if I were McCain. The Dem's have more than enough relevant ammunition to let one of their proxys off the leash and launch a few attack ads
 
Gareth....had to happen didnt it? I reckon even if Mccain was well placed it would. Too hard to resist. but may be too late.

I like Rudy a lot Warbler and he would have been ideal. I know the 9/11 thing has been done to death but he was absolutely superb in both the tone he struck, his genuine empathy and his pure courage and calm.Im not entirely sure the prejudices you have stated really stick myself but i questioned whether his heart was really in it. Also his social stances were way out of kilter with the bible bashers and wonder if that fight was more than he could stomach
 
Agreed Warber. The economy is absolutely key. Who would have thought it would outshadow the war in iraq a few weeks back?

Isnt Buffet advising Obama big time? What a card to have on your side....
 
In the current climate raking up the Keating Five would be more damaging. McCain was found not guilty, but was heavily criticised for exercising poor judgement
 
Agree Warbs, that's the obvious attack for the Dem-leaning 'independent' groups.

The ad above is pretty tame but it could just be a taste of things to come.
 
Will be very interesting to see how Biden deals with Palin tonight. Indications seem to be that he will largely ignore her and focus on McCain (even moreso than normal in a vice-presidential debate).

In a sense, the only way for her is up after the Katie Couric disaster. Biden is walking a fine line as well- trying to contrast his knowledge against Palin's (presumed) lack of knowledge without seeming patronizing.

Obama bounce in swing states since the economic 'crisis' seems to have been considerable- up fairly big in Florida/Ohio and even up in Missouri. If this had all hit three weeks later than it did, he would win by a mile.

If, by chance, Palin bombs out tonight (which I find hard to see happening given how low the bar is set!), it's over for McCain IMO. She is going to overshadow him one way or the other (she already is)- whether she begins to turn it around tonight or not.
 
"Something wicked this way comes ....."

As I've been intuitively convinced that McCain will win this election and his running mate is putting up a poor show, something must (intuitively) rescue his chances and here it is:

Listening to 'Material World' on BBC R4 this afternoon - they were discussing how people 'read' faces (twas a scientific study & the program is available by pod-cast) -- one of the points aired was that faces affect choice in presidential races.

Specifically, they choose a certain type in peace time, another in times of war. The illustration was Dole vs Bush.

McCain fits the bill for war time; Obama doesn't. (my verdict.)

Now, one event that could feed in to boosting McCain's chances would be another extreme like 9/11 .... 'something wicked'.

Now I hope my intuition is way, way off -- surprising to note, it does happen! :)

Regards
 
I think McCain's chances of electoral victory have been hugely damaged by that freakish, open-fingered, stacatto wave he deploys when mounting convention rostrums and aeroplane steps.

It's the Devil's work, if you ask me.

Or possibly the Viet-Cong's.
 
Regarding the debate tonight, I think Palin will be ultra-aggressive in attacking Obama. They've got little to lose with her so they might as well stoke up The Base (TM) one last time. Expect 'liberal', 'Washington' and 'radical' to be the words of the day.
 
It's weird- when I had to stay up and watch the primary debates I was dreading the fuckers and now I'm thinking of staying up until all hours!

Being reported tonight (NY Times amongst others) that McCain has pulled out of Michigan.

Going back to McCain's PR stunt of "suspending" his campaign last week, it seems that it didn't pay off, with 66% saying that it didn't help the situation and 43% believing he acted too quickly (NYT/CBS poll).

It really does seem that McCain is lurching from one newscycle to the next looking for ways to make a short-term impact without any long-term consideration (and I'm not just referring to Palin). Has a lot to do with his impulsive nature IMO.
 
Have you seen the Rolling Stone cover story on McCain? Nothing new to anyone paying attention, but as a compendium of horrible things about him it's one hell of a hatchet job.
 
Just reading a bit of it tonight. It's like the Swift Boat ads in print FFS!

Even brings up McCain's treatment of his first wife, which is certainly the most intensely personal attack that can be levelled against him (far moreso than the Keating 5), though very little of the details are included.
 
Regarding the debate tonight, I think Palin will be ultra-aggressive in attacking Obama. They've got little to lose with her so they might as well stoke up The Base (TM) one last time. Expect 'liberal', 'Washington' and 'radical' to be the words of the day.

Here here, that would be my brief to her, and if he fires back too aggresively, then how does he look. Biden is no mug he'll settle for a decent win, will be probably the more informative, but these are so stage managed, I'm tempted to predict an inconclusive draw
 
well this time I've woken up to hear it. So far, Biden is kicking shite out of her. She sounds to me as if she's been loaded up with loads of figures, and is determind to Gattlin gun them out, with out thinking about the implications of what she's actually saying. I can't quite escape from the fact that Palin is increasingly lining herself up for another constituency?. About another hour to go. I expect to be equal by the end, I'd love to see someone allowed a free run at her without a moderator though.

She's increasingly campaigning for herself with her answers, Biden looks much more like the team player, and her continual references to Alaska can only serve to alienate swing states.

Palin is a green it now appears, but doesn't want to argue about its causes, shes concerned about cleaning up the planet and is blaming other countries and is claiming America is the most environmentally friendly people in the world.

Biden wants to invest in new technologies and export that expertise, continues to belittle McCains voting record in drilling for new.

Palin sounds good on local issues though, (Alaska is an energy producing state) she supports capping carbon ommissions, Biden is going back over old ground.

Onto same sex benefits now.

Biden supports (I've made a cup of tea and want a fag) daren't hear Palin's answer.

"not if it goes closer and closer to redefining" she says. In Fairness she qualifies it, let me reflect it, she has a liberal take on it (by her standards) Biden sounds surprised but can't bring himself to support it . Both agree they don't support gay marriage.

Iraq

Palin "we've got to win" and "grow our military" and "getting close and closer to victory".
Biden "I didn't hear her plan" (I took a break at this point but it was clear that Biden was better equipped, it became embarrasing)

Iran

Palin - falls back on the axis of evil, plays the Israeli card, uses words like freedom, democracy and human rights and tries to name drop someone she's met recently.

Biden - Oh this is getting embarrassing...... 30 love to Biden, just has a better understanding of the command and controls systems in each country she alludes to. Uses Spain ultimately. McCain won't even sit down and talk to a NATO ally!!! "what hope have we got with McCain"

Palin - keeps using the McCain Palin ticket.

Personal observation now - Biden is knocking ten bells out of her on foreign policy, better briefed and more informed with thoughtful insights, it's getting embarrassing. She attacks Biden on Israel, and then accepts we agree. Second critical reference to mistakes by Bush. Biden is working up a stean here and he sounds good, Palin is a little girl lost.

Use of nuclear weapons

Palin - This would be the end of the world "period" she uses that word too much. She's been allowed by a co-operative moderator to link it to Afghanistan, yet doesn't mention it in a nuclear context!!!

Biden - Poor response, possibly wrong footed by Palin being allowed to totally divert the question. Got totally caught out here, sounds confused.

Obersevation - she shouldn't have been allowed to change the question, total avoidance of the question, but Biden sounds wobbly; getting it back now? No. Poor response

American intervention

Biden - Back on form now (of course these questions are screened first) that would explain why he wobbled when she was allowed to change it. This moderator is a bit biased I have to say.

Palin - "I'm a Washington outsider" washing her hands of the decisions and appealing to the ordinary people. (She's campaigning for herself increasingly and keeps talking about Alaska). Plays the huminatarian card. Didn't sound too bad, but very easy.

Biden - his response is good, yep, he's well briefed, and able to prosecure it

Palin - hesitates a bit, oh this doesn't sound good "John McCain knows how to win a war" (would that be Vietnam I wonder?)

How would a Biden adminstration be different from an Obama administration?

Biden - Platitudes to start with "God forbid" etc pretty predictable otherwise "It's the most important election you'll ever vote in since 1932" but he'll do everything that Barrack would have done.

Palin - No real answer but in fairness I'm not sure she's answering the question (or did I mis hear it?) She wasn't asked about the death of McCain?

It will be interesting to see if the same question is extended to her, as right now I'm sure it only mentioned Obama.

Palin - seems to have gone off message on education. I think she's hit a populist chord and has stirred some reaction from the audience, but she sounds superficial, could backfire on reflection.

Similar question extended to Palin, with the indication that she doesn't know what the VP is. Audience laughed, she said she knew what one was, but her joke was missed (I tend to believe her)

None answer by both parties, Biden the more convincing though.

Debates drifting in to what the VP should be and the suggestion that the role will be expanded, both parties talking it down. Until such time as Biden describes Cheney as the "Most dangerous we've had in history". Biden has a better understanding and more humility for the position, Palin has more ambition for the post.

(fag time again folks - might miss a bit)

Caught a bit on families - but Palin was better, she was able to reach out to a broader church and cover all the bases, Biden couldn't

Talk about what they would differently with hindsight

Both gave slight concessions to minor issues

Missed the last question, (toilet) but Bidens answer gives me little clue to what was asked, Palin's gives me hint, but I think it might hjave something to do with bringing people together..... not so sure now

Closing statements

Palin - wants to speak to the people, thanks everyone, and will fight for the middle class, she's been there, she's proud of being American, invokes a Reagan quote

Biden - pays thanks too, underlines the importance and gravity of the election, plays change card, but addresses contemporary issues, (Palin went on patriotic sentiment) starts to address the American dream but does it more subtley. Uses the "God card"

Sorry for typos folks, but tried to do it in running

I'd give it to Biden by 5 to 6 rounds, Palin was good on the family and common touch, but hopeless on the heavier issues
 
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can't agree he is kicking the shite out of her, warbler. she started nervously but it's been fairly even to be honest.
 
fucking phenomenal answer Biden just gave about his family background. going after mccain's "maverick" brand. really starting to pick up after a slow start.
 
I listened to it, I didn't watch it, but I understand that she played the camera better, I thought she got better as it went along, and she had a better a common touch, but she started badlt and sounded to me as if she was reading pre-prepared scripts, or trying to retrieve what she had been fed.

Neither was likely to collapse in a pre-prepraped format. On reflection though, I think some of her glib points and perfroming will not look presidential
 
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