The Next President?
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Sheikh
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I just have a niggly feeling that when it comes to casting their vote, people will get the heeby geebies about electing a black man. We'll see, I want Obama to win but I'm finding it hard to believe the Americans can bring themselves to do it.
then the ultimately more electable Obama must be able to do so
Harbinger
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Cool little tool from Betfair:
http://predicts.betfair.com/new-national-chart/
Will probably only make interesting viewing if McCain gets some good early results though.
http://predicts.betfair.com/new-national-chart/
Will probably only make interesting viewing if McCain gets some good early results though.
What do we think the implications for America would be of a McCain victory?
Perhaps I should qualify this, as its not the man or his moose shooter I'm interested in, but rather than way the country will have disingenuously signalled one thing, and then when protected by the privacy of the voting booth, done something different.
If the polls are to be believed than it would indicate something in the region of 10% of the population changing their minds for reasons which we could only guess at, but would have to assume that race became a closet factor. The sclae of such a turn around would need to be in the millions, and that must have implications?
I don't know the answer but I think it could be very damaging and strike at the very heart of the social fabric of the country, as it would be difficult to escape from the idea that this multi-cultural melting pot has shown its ugly side again. The contradiction and scale of such a reversal would indeed have the potential to drive a fissue right through the collective confidence of the country at a time when its at a low ebb anyway.
It's probably silly to compare it to Rodney King as the circumstances were completely different, and his treatment by the LAPD was very much more confined to local issues and the backlash was largely confined to the Watts. This is being played across the whole country though, with a global audience watching on. It would be difficult not to conclude that one significant section of the population has effectively turned round on another and delivered a vote that is tantamount to a declaration that "we don't like you". Furthermore, they will have done so in something of a clandestine and dishonest way. Such a result might seemingly have the capacity to hammer at a subterranean fault line that we know has existed historically and become really very corrosive. It's difficult to see how McCain could plead for unity across the country when the perception of a very real betrayal centred on a base instinct will have been recorded. I suspect it could open a division that might cause a collective soul searching as America seeks to look to its own identity and inherent contradictions again. It's difficult not to conclude that such a result would be a very global embarrasment to the US in light of the way that all the polls had been showing, and I'm really not sure what the reaction would be?
Perhaps I should qualify this, as its not the man or his moose shooter I'm interested in, but rather than way the country will have disingenuously signalled one thing, and then when protected by the privacy of the voting booth, done something different.
If the polls are to be believed than it would indicate something in the region of 10% of the population changing their minds for reasons which we could only guess at, but would have to assume that race became a closet factor. The sclae of such a turn around would need to be in the millions, and that must have implications?
I don't know the answer but I think it could be very damaging and strike at the very heart of the social fabric of the country, as it would be difficult to escape from the idea that this multi-cultural melting pot has shown its ugly side again. The contradiction and scale of such a reversal would indeed have the potential to drive a fissue right through the collective confidence of the country at a time when its at a low ebb anyway.
It's probably silly to compare it to Rodney King as the circumstances were completely different, and his treatment by the LAPD was very much more confined to local issues and the backlash was largely confined to the Watts. This is being played across the whole country though, with a global audience watching on. It would be difficult not to conclude that one significant section of the population has effectively turned round on another and delivered a vote that is tantamount to a declaration that "we don't like you". Furthermore, they will have done so in something of a clandestine and dishonest way. Such a result might seemingly have the capacity to hammer at a subterranean fault line that we know has existed historically and become really very corrosive. It's difficult to see how McCain could plead for unity across the country when the perception of a very real betrayal centred on a base instinct will have been recorded. I suspect it could open a division that might cause a collective soul searching as America seeks to look to its own identity and inherent contradictions again. It's difficult not to conclude that such a result would be a very global embarrasment to the US in light of the way that all the polls had been showing, and I'm really not sure what the reaction would be?
Even if that does happen, how close have the supposedly racial tolerant nations of europe come to electing a black/asian/whatever politican to the highest office?
How many have reached the same level of office as Condi rice or colin Powell? how many have been the equivalent of mayors or senators?
And why wouldnt it be just that they want mccain as leader reagrdless of colour?
Kinnock thought he had an election won too. hes ginger admittedly and welsh but ultimately i believe that enough voters thought just that bit harder at it at the ballot box about someone who had the rhetoric (to a garbled extent...hes no Obama) but little else
No.. I would expect that the black population are somewhat suprised hes got as far as he has
for me the worst aspect of the whole campaign (and this is not at all his fault) has been the emphasis on race. And this especially come from the left. the tired old "wouldnt it be great to have a black president". No it wouldnt. It would be great to have a great president.
How many have reached the same level of office as Condi rice or colin Powell? how many have been the equivalent of mayors or senators?
And why wouldnt it be just that they want mccain as leader reagrdless of colour?
Kinnock thought he had an election won too. hes ginger admittedly and welsh but ultimately i believe that enough voters thought just that bit harder at it at the ballot box about someone who had the rhetoric (to a garbled extent...hes no Obama) but little else
No.. I would expect that the black population are somewhat suprised hes got as far as he has
for me the worst aspect of the whole campaign (and this is not at all his fault) has been the emphasis on race. And this especially come from the left. the tired old "wouldnt it be great to have a black president". No it wouldnt. It would be great to have a great president.
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Grasshopper
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That's a pretty good post, clivex, and I can gree with most of it - especially the last sentence.
However, I have to pull you up on your use of the phrase "tired old 'wouldnt it be great to have a black president".
You present this desire as some kind of woolly-hatted, leftie tokenism, which I think misses the point. Many consider it would be a good thing, because of the quantum-leap it would represent for the United States as a nation.
The very act of the population of the US choosing an African-American over a War Veteran would speak volumes about the emotional state of the Union, imo, and represent a seismic shift, in terms of the kind of America that it's citizens want to be a part of.
Wait a minute............this is all starting to sound like woolly-hatted, leftie nonsense - so you might have been right after all.
But what it isn't, is woolly-hatted, leftie "Let's have a darkie" tokenism, which is what you have painted it as.
However, I have to pull you up on your use of the phrase "tired old 'wouldnt it be great to have a black president".
You present this desire as some kind of woolly-hatted, leftie tokenism, which I think misses the point. Many consider it would be a good thing, because of the quantum-leap it would represent for the United States as a nation.
The very act of the population of the US choosing an African-American over a War Veteran would speak volumes about the emotional state of the Union, imo, and represent a seismic shift, in terms of the kind of America that it's citizens want to be a part of.
Wait a minute............this is all starting to sound like woolly-hatted, leftie nonsense - so you might have been right after all.
But what it isn't, is woolly-hatted, leftie "Let's have a darkie" tokenism, which is what you have painted it as.
It wouldn't be unfair to point out Clive that neither Powell or Rice ever received the mandate of the electorate and were appointed instead.
I think I made it clear that we wouldn't know for certain what would have caused a shift, but it would be difficult to escape from the idea that latent racism was responsible given that no particular October surprise or last minute accident has reared its head.
If a spontaneous and collective consciousness does turn out to have gripped America by tomorrow morning, then I think it will be damaging to the States's standing in the world, and is going to cruelly expose and embarrass the nation, presenting them as it would, as a country in conflict with its own conscience, and many of its founding principles. America's standing in the world has undoubtedly been damaged by Bush, and I'm increasingly detecting that the country is becoming more aware of this, and not a little bit perplexed and distracted by it. I could of course be wrong, but I'm not sure that I wouldn't be prepared to attach the label of 'global President' to Obama right now, as I detect that his appeal has gone far beyond his own borders and to no small extent has been able to achieve a degree of 'buy in' in which millions of spectators seem to have invested in these troubled times. A result that bursts this bubble (however illusionary it may be, as I'm far from convinced about the mans substance) on grounds of perceived discrimination is bound to leave the country asking some serious questions of itself, given the apparent direction of travel to date. Truman might have sprung a surprise on Dewey, but to achieve a reversal on the magnitude that McCain will need, can I'm afraid, only point to one factor and no small degree of soul searching and seriosu self-examination.
Ironcially, had the polls not built up the level of expectation, and had Obama floundered under the spotlight, then I think it would be easier to explain away and reconcile on grounds of capability. To date he's been lucky in that he's run into an unpopular Republican regime who the country is fed up of, a less than inspiring opponent whose tended to look the more uncertain, and a truly scary VP candidate. When you allie this with the prevailing economic direction and sense of fear that's gripped the country, it isn't difficult to conclude that this election might just have been unwinable for the Republicans
I'm half reminded of a commentator observing that Obama wasn't "really that black". It sounds crass, but I think the point was actually quite pertinent. He was, it was suggested, acceptably black in the Tiger Woods mould. That is to say his pigmentation wasn't quite dark enough to alienate, he wasn't a tub thumping product of the civil rights movement like Al Shapton with all the confrontational rhetoric of a struggle, and wore smart suits etc
The journey has been an epic one however, from slave trade, to civil war, to civil rights and finally to Obama.
I think I made it clear that we wouldn't know for certain what would have caused a shift, but it would be difficult to escape from the idea that latent racism was responsible given that no particular October surprise or last minute accident has reared its head.
If a spontaneous and collective consciousness does turn out to have gripped America by tomorrow morning, then I think it will be damaging to the States's standing in the world, and is going to cruelly expose and embarrass the nation, presenting them as it would, as a country in conflict with its own conscience, and many of its founding principles. America's standing in the world has undoubtedly been damaged by Bush, and I'm increasingly detecting that the country is becoming more aware of this, and not a little bit perplexed and distracted by it. I could of course be wrong, but I'm not sure that I wouldn't be prepared to attach the label of 'global President' to Obama right now, as I detect that his appeal has gone far beyond his own borders and to no small extent has been able to achieve a degree of 'buy in' in which millions of spectators seem to have invested in these troubled times. A result that bursts this bubble (however illusionary it may be, as I'm far from convinced about the mans substance) on grounds of perceived discrimination is bound to leave the country asking some serious questions of itself, given the apparent direction of travel to date. Truman might have sprung a surprise on Dewey, but to achieve a reversal on the magnitude that McCain will need, can I'm afraid, only point to one factor and no small degree of soul searching and seriosu self-examination.
Ironcially, had the polls not built up the level of expectation, and had Obama floundered under the spotlight, then I think it would be easier to explain away and reconcile on grounds of capability. To date he's been lucky in that he's run into an unpopular Republican regime who the country is fed up of, a less than inspiring opponent whose tended to look the more uncertain, and a truly scary VP candidate. When you allie this with the prevailing economic direction and sense of fear that's gripped the country, it isn't difficult to conclude that this election might just have been unwinable for the Republicans
I'm half reminded of a commentator observing that Obama wasn't "really that black". It sounds crass, but I think the point was actually quite pertinent. He was, it was suggested, acceptably black in the Tiger Woods mould. That is to say his pigmentation wasn't quite dark enough to alienate, he wasn't a tub thumping product of the civil rights movement like Al Shapton with all the confrontational rhetoric of a struggle, and wore smart suits etc
The journey has been an epic one however, from slave trade, to civil war, to civil rights and finally to Obama.
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Harbinger
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All this post-election stuff is giving me the jitters!
In the meantime, 10 reasons why to ignore exit polls:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html
In the meantime, 10 reasons why to ignore exit polls:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html
Ch4's '3 minute wonder' was mildly amusing just now. 3 horrendous American women, with one of them confessing that they're the most racist country in the world and she knows plenty of people who've privately confessed to her that they won't be voting Obama because of race. One of them wasn't too bad in fairness (and they're hardly representative anyway) but I just don't know how deep rooted soem of this racial suspicion is?
I suppose we'll find out soon enough, but I imagine we must be talking in terms of 25M plus concealing their true intentions to turn round the sort of poll leads we've seen.
Incidentally, I don't believe we've had the finally Flynnometer count yet? Time running out Gareth, I've had my stab at it, although I'm increasingly getting twitchy I've called Pensylvania wrong
I suppose we'll find out soon enough, but I imagine we must be talking in terms of 25M plus concealing their true intentions to turn round the sort of poll leads we've seen.
Incidentally, I don't believe we've had the finally Flynnometer count yet? Time running out Gareth, I've had my stab at it, although I'm increasingly getting twitchy I've called Pensylvania wrong
Harbinger
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Right, no fence sitting. I think McCain is going to make it a bit closer than most assume by eking out a win in Florida and Ohio, but flipping Virginia and a few of the Western states will win it for Obama:
Obama:
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Washington DC
Wisconsin
= 291 EVs
McCain:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
West Virginia
Wyoming
= 247 EVs
Obama:
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Washington DC
Wisconsin
= 291 EVs
McCain:
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
West Virginia
Wyoming
= 247 EVs
Harbinger
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Shadow Leader
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I'm bored of it all already. In fact I was six months ago.
oh come off it. You constantly bang on about what a racist country the US is and when the very obvious example of two well respected (powell especially) blacks reach the very top (which doesnt appear to have happened in europe anywhere), indicate that its just by "appointment". iof Powell had run he would have had agreat chance. Few over there believe otherwise surely
The fcat that Obama is where he is is surely proof enough that the bulk of the country is past this nonsense. Even if there is a bradley effect he would still have picked up huge support from right across the spectrum. And if sinister forces (which seem to be alluded toby some) wanted to stop him, they should have doen so by now shouldnt they?
I know that you dont go down this route but i get thoroughlky sick of so many on the left banging on about race in america and then fawning over states such as China Russia and even western europeans where purely racist parties grab 20% of the popular vote. And then the most sickening laughable and vile joke of all is the Ken livingstone wing throwing support behind those that happily state that they seek ELIMINATION of a certain race
Shadow Leader
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Considering this is the yanks we're talking about, no-one can possibly predict what the crazies will do surely?? That's despite the polls predicting what they will! I'm sure it can only end in disaster if that redneck McCain is elected mind....
I wouldn't jump the gun just yet Clive. America's racist under belly is well documented, and it was only as recently as 1968 that George Wallace took 14% of the popular vote and won the states of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia outright on a purely racist ticket.
I don't doubt that there's a racist under belly in Europe either, and although we might not have given the world the Ku Klux Klan, we have enough history for us to be less than smug on the subject. Lets not forget that it isn't too long ago that Rosa Parks refused to give up her seat on a bus. Europe certainly can't claim the high moral ground (largely down to a couple of countries - well documented) but in recent times only the French have threatend to make a significant break through on the extreme right. The uK I think has been reasonably good, but I accpet your observation is European rather than British
We don't however have anything like the black population that the US does (I'm talking African/ West Indian, rather than Asian). There are sufficient concentrations of a black population in the States for them to quite rightly expect a degree of greater representation. Population statistics are of course debatable, but the US has something in the region of 6 times the percentage of blacks in their demographic.
Would Powell have been a strong candidate? I tend to think he would, and enough of my American contacts would bear this out. No such enthusiasm for Rice though. Unfortunately, whether you like it or not, both individuals were appointed rather than elected, and however you choose to try and gloss over this, you can't pretend otherwise.
I think the strength in your hypothesis lies in the age demographic and the generation that isn't connected to the 1960's, and to a lesser extent 70's. We'll see though
I don't doubt that there's a racist under belly in Europe either, and although we might not have given the world the Ku Klux Klan, we have enough history for us to be less than smug on the subject. Lets not forget that it isn't too long ago that Rosa Parks refused to give up her seat on a bus. Europe certainly can't claim the high moral ground (largely down to a couple of countries - well documented) but in recent times only the French have threatend to make a significant break through on the extreme right. The uK I think has been reasonably good, but I accpet your observation is European rather than British
We don't however have anything like the black population that the US does (I'm talking African/ West Indian, rather than Asian). There are sufficient concentrations of a black population in the States for them to quite rightly expect a degree of greater representation. Population statistics are of course debatable, but the US has something in the region of 6 times the percentage of blacks in their demographic.
Would Powell have been a strong candidate? I tend to think he would, and enough of my American contacts would bear this out. No such enthusiasm for Rice though. Unfortunately, whether you like it or not, both individuals were appointed rather than elected, and however you choose to try and gloss over this, you can't pretend otherwise.
I think the strength in your hypothesis lies in the age demographic and the generation that isn't connected to the 1960's, and to a lesser extent 70's. We'll see though
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