The Non-Triers Thread

I don't think I've used my skybet account for a while. Will they lay more than £8 each way? :) Will try and find out.
 
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Problem is the handicapper will put him up and they might run him again.......then his mark won't look so good in what will be tougher than yesterdays race....
 
He was dropped 4lb to 131 for that dissapointment at Doncaster first time out. I don't underestimate how hard it is to come from finishing 7/7 in a class 2 to finishing second in a Class 1 Listed race like yesterday. We shall see what the handicapper does now. I refer to him finishing third behind Ifthecapfits last season, who is rated in the 150's now. I have Solomon Grey down as one of the best handicapped hurdlers in training on all known form at present. Unexposed over 2M4F and will come on again for yesterdays run.
 
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Marble said:
I refer to him finishing third behind Ifthecapfits last season, who is rated in the 150's now. I have Solomon Grey down as one of the best handicapped hurdlers in training on all known form at present. Unexposed over 2M4F and will come on again for yesterdays run.
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With respect, Marble, that's a very dangerous train of thought. It assumes SG can match ITCF's improvement. Also, I wouldn't assume he can improve from yesterday. It's a wee bit unusual for a horse to finish second in a top handicap and 'come on' for the run (ie assumes lack of fitness) as opposed to maintaining an upward improvement curve. He'll go up two or three pounds for yesterday but it was the worst renewal of the Lanzarote I can recall, with the top weight off just 134. You get higher rated top-weights in £10k midweek handicaps.

If SG is one of the best handicapped hurdlers in training on all known form I think I'll pack it in now.
 
Beaten just over a length yesterday. He is lightly raced, and there is a big pot to be won with him. If you haven't already, please watch the Doncaster race where he finished last. Nevermind you packing the game in, I thought they would retire him after that run. He has A) either improved about two stone since Doncaster, or B) come back to best form, (and) improved somewhere between 7-10 pound on the aforementioned best form. I guess in a way he has actually done both of the above. A mark in the mid 130's for him is literally not very high at all. He is the complete opposite of badly handicapped over this new distance.
 
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Marble said:
Beaten just over a length yesterday. He is lightly raced, and there is a big pot to be won with him.
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So why didn't he win yesterday? Why didn't any of the half-decent horses in the country rated over 135 run? Because they're chasing bigger prizes for which they're better-handicapped. He may well win a big pot but looking at the form again the chances are the handicapper will put him back up to 135, off which he wouldn't have beaten Lord Napier yesterday so he'll need to improve 7lbs just to have a chance of winning a similar race to yesterday. Yes, he's lightly raced and will hopefully improve with maturity and experience but he will have to.


Marble said:
If you haven't already, please watch the Doncaster race where he finished last. Nevermind you packing the game in, I thought they would retire him after that run.
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A heavy defeat first time up often means nothing other than that the horse wasn't fit and was looked after.


Marble said:
He has A) either improved about two stone, or B) come back to best form, (and) improved somewhere between 7-10 pound on the aforementioned best form.
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A) From that run, yes, but not from last year's form. As I said, that seasonal debut means nothing in the big scheme of things.
B) Yes, he returned to form yesterday and, again as I said before, might even have done better if he'd been ridden round the inside. Then again, he might have resented being crowded. But there is no evidence at all that he has improved 7-10lbs on his best form. I had him on 141 before yesterday's race (and 10lbs on my ratings above ORs means he'd need to improve further to have any chance in a race where the top weights are in the 150s) and initial back of fag pack figures means I'll have him rated in the same ball park so it's debatable whether he's improved at all so far.

Marble said:
A mark in the mid 130's for him is literally not very high at all. He is the complete opposite of badly handicapped over this new distance.
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You're right. 135ish is not a high mark but that's his level at the moment. He isn't badly handicapped (or he wouldn't have been second yesterday) but he will really need to improve a fair bit to be competitive in the top handicaps where the real contenders turn up.

When John Lennon was asked if Ringo was the best drummer in the world, he replied that Ringo wasn't even the best drummer in the Beatles. In similar vein, I wouldn't imagine SG is even the best-handicapped hurdler in the Skelton yard never mind the country. They have a potential Champion Hurdle contender in the yard still running in handicaps.
 
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Appreciate the feedback, DO. Engaging as always. I think Solomon Grey is very much a work in progress. I've got more evidence to believe that he is progressing and fairly rated too boot, to start winning races, than I am of about 96 or 97 percent of the total racehorse population. :)
 
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I've just watched the Lanzarote through again and one caught my eye as a serious notoffski, in my opinion.

Doux Pretender reminded me of a Henderson horse I backed two or three, maybe even four, years back in a good handicap at a top right-handed track, either Ascot, Kempton or Sandown but my mind's eye is telling me Ascot. I can't recall the horse's name but it went on to win a big 'un. It had travelled supremely well through the race, nipped through on the inside approaching the home turn and then was put into reverse gear by the jockey. The ride Doux Pretender got yesterday reminded me of that, other than that he made his move on the outside. But as soon as he got on the heels of the pack you could almost hear the crunching of the gearbox as the jockey - in my opinion - crashed into reverse and eased the horse down.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've just watched the Lanzarote through again and one caught my eye as a serious notoffski, in my opinion.

Doux Pretender reminded me of a Henderson horse I backed two or three, maybe even four, years back in a good handicap at a top right-handed track, either Ascot, Kempton or Sandown but my mind's eye is telling me Ascot. I can't recall the horse's name but it went on to win a big 'un. It had travelled supremely well through the race, nipped through on the inside approaching the home turn and then was put into reverse gear by the jockey. The ride Doux Pretender got yesterday reminded me of that, other than that he made his move on the outside. But as soon as he got on the heels of the pack you could almost hear the crunching of the gearbox as the jockey - in my opinion - crashed into reverse and eased the horse down.
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Different Gravey perhaps?
 
Bonjers said:
Different Gravey perhaps?
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Don't think so, Bonjers. The form doesn't fit my recollection.

I thought it might have been Brain Power or Might Bite but their profiles don't fit either. I'm maybe getting a wee bit confuddled with age. It might have been Brain Power's hefty defeat in the Greatwood (but I didn't back it then) before going on to lift both the valuable handicaps (from Consul De Thaix both times) at Sandown and Ascot within the following month.

It will come back to me one day when I'm in the middle of something else, like a shite...
 
Tanlic said:
Skybet going 16/1
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Also rightly quoted for The Coral Cup, which I forgot to mention. It's too early for me to be getting involved. I look forward to seeing those Coral Cup and Martin Pipe entries though. I suppose this has become a bit of a cliff horse for me now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Don't think so, Bonjers. The form doesn't fit my recollection.

I thought it might have been Brain Power or Might Bite but their profiles don't fit either. I'm maybe getting a wee bit confuddled with age. It might have been Brain Power's hefty defeat in the Greatwood (but I didn't back it then) before going on to lift both the valuable handicaps (from Consul De Thaix both times) at Sandown and Ascot within the following month.

It will come back to me one day when I'm in the middle of something else, like a shite...
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Verdana Blue put in a couple of "eyecatching" performances at Ascot towards the end of 2017, with a CD win sandwiched inbetween.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Theinval is being "readied" for something this season I'm pretty sure.
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Indeed. I've had it among my top-rated every run this season but Hendo said something earlier about it being very much a good-ground spring horse so I reckon two wins in two or three days at Ayr in April might be part of the plan but wouldn't rule out a good run at either Cheltenham or Aintree en route if conditions allow.
 
the Johnny (Henderson) Walker memorial cup, think its the last race at Cheltenham.
 
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Failed to win the GA off 141 the last twice although creditable placed efforts. Hard to see it doing better off 146 so, as DO says, that race is likely just a warm-up for Aintree and Ayr.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've just watched the Lanzarote through again and one caught my eye as a serious notoffski, in my opinion.

Doux Pretender reminded me of a Henderson horse I backed two or three, maybe even four, years back in a good handicap at a top right-handed track, either Ascot, Kempton or Sandown but my mind's eye is telling me Ascot. I can't recall the horse's name but it went on to win a big 'un. It had travelled supremely well through the race, nipped through on the inside approaching the home turn and then was put into reverse gear by the jockey. The ride Doux Pretender got yesterday reminded me of that, other than that he made his move on the outside. But as soon as he got on the heels of the pack you could almost hear the crunching of the gearbox as the jockey - in my opinion - crashed into reverse and eased the horse down.
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It wasn't Call The Cops was it Maurice?

I remember him running in a Pertemps qualifier at Kempton and getting a particularly suspect ride form Gerraghty. Finished fourth after finding reverse gear two out. He later ran in the Coral Cup rather than the Pertemps Final because his handicap mark was far too good to waste. Pissed up as I recall. I think that Coral Cup was where you got your rating for the Tourard Man as well.
 
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