The Oaks 2008

Cheers, Powerscourt.

He had a really nice Galileo filly a couple of years back who won well at Navan and might have been ante-post favourite for the Oaks at one point only to go wrong; was never the same after. Name escapes me just now...
 
Never won a race after breaking her maiden at Tipp, Bar. Very dissapointing.

Marjalina ran pretty abysmally in the Blue Wind. Very weak in the market beforehand as well. Adored looks to be a progressive filly, though it's hard to know what to make of the form.
 
Is Bolger getting his own back after the rumble in the media about Teofilio? Wasn't he badly criticised about that one and maybe he has decided he will do the opposite to what everyone imagines he will do just to teach everyone a lesson?

Sad though, Lush Lashes looks banker material for Epsom were she to run.
 
Halfway to Heaven looks a huge price at 33/1 and if she runs a decent race at the Curragh on Sunday, I can see her doing a "Peeping Fawn" and being in the mix when stepped up in distance in the Oaks.

She was staying on in the French Guineas last time and wasn't beaten too far that day by the best 3 year old filly in training and I thought David McCabe made a bit too much use of her early on.

The main risk is whether she'll stay but she wasn't really stopping at Longchamp.
 
There is surely little or no chance of her getting the Oaks trip on breeding? She is still in it though....

Adored (IRE)
Cape Amber (IRE)
Chinese White (IRE)
Clowance
Halfway To Heaven (IRE)
Honorlina (FR)
Ice Queen (IRE)
Katiyra (IRE)
Kitty Matcham (IRE)
Look Here
Love To Dance (IRE)
Lush Lashes
Mad About You (IRE)
Michita (USA)
Milton of Campsie
Miracle Seeker
Moonstone
Prima Luce (IRE)
Sail (IRE)
Savethisdanceforme (IRE)
Shy
Soinlovewithyou (USA)
Sugar Mint (IRE)
Tiffany Diamond (IRE)
Try Me (UAE)
 
in todays rp bolger states whilst there is no chance of new approach going to epsom it is still a possibility that lush lashes will be supplemented
 
According to something said on Ch4 yesterday, it's not the track which is causing the dearth of Irish horses for Epsom, nor the travelling, still less some dastardly Murphia plot* - but some protest from Irish trainers about the cost of entering horses for the Epsom races. I do think they have a point

* I thought it would be fairly clear to the meanest understanding btw, that my remark above was tongue in cheek...
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@May 25 2008, 05:42 AM
According to something said on Ch4 yesterday, it's not the track which is causing the dearth of Irish horses for Epsom.....but some protest from Irish trainers about the cost of entering horses for the Epsom races. I do think they have a point
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That doesn't add up Headstrong ~ it's very expensive to supplement for Epsom unless you enter your horses as yearlings and this is an issue for all connections, not just for the Irish (it's more an issue for the few small owners lucky enough to have a colt good enough to run in the Derby). Therefore the entry system is a reason why trainers in general should eschew Epsom, not a reason why the Irish alone should boycott, since the races don't remotely clash with the Irish versions.
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@May 25 2008, 05:42 AM
According to something said on Ch4 yesterday, it's not the track which is causing the dearth of Irish horses for Epsom, nor the travelling, still less some dastardly Murphia plot* - but some protest from Irish trainers about the cost of entering horses for the Epsom races. I do think they have a point

* I thought it would be fairly clear to the meanest understanding btw, that my remark above was tongue in cheek...
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New Approach is not going to run...

It looks like Lush Lashes will run if the ground is good...

Coolmore want to run their whole stable and a classic winning miler....

Dermot Weld is strongly considering the race for his colt despite the entry fee and the fears that he will be too big and green for the race at this stage....

This idea the the Irish are boycotting the race is a load of media driven crap picked up by some on here and its really getting tiresome.
 
Betting-wise, Chinese White is interesting. Weld refused to rule her out during the week and there's a couple of hundred quid lined up for her on BF @ 8s.
 
To add to the point about the entry fees, by this stage most of them have been paid anyway, in stages over the last two years or so!
 
From RP

DERMOT WELD on Sunday said that the Juddmonte Oaks at Epsom on June 6 is now a "possibility" for Chinese White.

The former ante-post favourite for the Classic, had been deemed an unlikely runner by Weld after winning a Listed race at Gowran Park on May 4.

The filly is now 4-1second favourite for the Oaks with Ladbrokes.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@May 25 2008, 09:41 AM
New Approach is not going to run...
It looks like Lush Lashes will run if the ground is good...
Coolmore want to run their whole stable and a classic winning miler....
Dermot Weld is strongly considering the race for his colt despite the entry fee and the fears that he will be too big and green for the race at this stage....

This idea the the Irish are boycotting the race is a load of media driven crap picked up by some on here and its really getting tiresome.
Click to expand...
In fairness to the media, the picture does seem to have changed over the last few weeks - at one point it looked like most of the best of their generation weren't coming over to Epsom - that was for the Oaks as well as the Derby. That was a matter for comment surely? Now it looks a lot more encouraging.

I agree with Irish connections that the supplementary fees are far too high though - there should be some mechanism perhaps by which colts and fillies placed in certain races can be supplemented for the Epsom Classics at a lower rate? - certainly for the winners. Not mind you that the sums involved probably deter the kind of connections usually in the fame! But it could be a dilemma for less well heeled owners whose horses don't show much til spring of their classic year

Gal, most things which are discussed on here are probably tiresome to someone...
 
Originally posted by Gamla Stan@May 23 2008, 06:55 PM
Halfway to Heaven looks a huge price at 33/1 and if she runs a decent race at the Curragh on Sunday, I can see her doing a "Peeping Fawn" and being in the mix when stepped up in distance in the Oaks.
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Looks like they're going to go to the Coronation with her instead which is probably a wise move. Think my 95s on Betfair is pretty pointless but I made a few shillings on her today so it's not all doom and gloom.
 
Tiffany Diamond joins the Ballydoyle Oaks team. Look at the improvement O'Brien has found in this filly and Hebridian since he has started training them.
 
The whole Irish rebellion ("The Epsom Rising" :P ) piece has been predictably hyped up by the media (Chris McGrath, a journalist I respect, wrote a particularly galling piece in the Independent), but Bolger is definitely getting a kick out of it himself.

Quoted in the RP this weekend, refferring to the state of the Epsom ground: "We don't want any firm in it but that is Epsom's business - I don't interfere in the internal affairs of a foreign country."

:D
 
18 horses left in after today...

Adored (IRE) 3
Cape Amber (IRE) 3.f
Chinese White (IRE) 3.f
Clowance 3.f
Ice Queen (IRE) 3.f
Katiyra (IRE) 3.f
Kitty Matcham (IRE) 3.f
Look Here 3.f
Lush Lashes 3.f
Michita (USA) 3.f
Miracle Seeker 3.f
Moonstone 3.f
Prima Luce (IRE) 3.f
Sail (IRE) 3.f
Saphira's Fire (IRE) 3.f
Savethisdanceforme (IRE) 3.f
Sugar Mint (IRE) 3.f
Tiffany Diamond (IRE) 3.f
 
Last time I looked (a couple of days ago), I seem to recall Ladbrokes only had two of them in their book (although it was oddschecker).

Anyway, in the finest traditions of tickets to the poor house and the fact that I seem to dish out this disreputable insight every year (about a bogey race for me, even though I know it's one of the most winable on the calendar), this is how my so called speed ratings have brought the 2008 crop out;

Oaks

Michita = 95.11+ (10F, Lupe, Good ground)
Chinese White = 94.23p (9.5F's, Gowran, quick side of heavy ground)
Miracle Seeker = 92.82 (11.5F, Lingfield trial, Good to firm)
Lush Lashes = 91.41 (10.5F, Mussidora, Good to Firm Frim in places)
Katiyra = 87.26 (8F, Leopardstown, Good, Good to Firm in places)
Sail = 88.23 (11.5F Cheshire Oaks, quicker side of good)
Clowance = 86.58 (10F, Sweetenham, Good ground)
Cape Amber = 86.41 (10.5F, Mussidora, Good to Firm Frim in places)
Moonstone = 84.50 (10.5F, Mussidora, Good to Firm Frim in places)
Saphiras Fire = 83.82 (10F, Pretty Polly Good ground)
 
Thanks Warbler.

Gosden said of Michita: "She will get a mile and a half, so Epsom is definitely on my mind." (Telegraph, Wednesday May 21 2008)

"You'd like a filly going to Epsom to have more experience but it shouldn't put you off," he [Gosden] said. (The Guardian, Thursday May 22 2008)

Gosden said he was now hoping for some rain ahead of the Oaks, as soft ground would undermine the chances of Lush Lashes, the current favourite. (The Guardian, Thursday May 22 2008)

Gosden, reported that his Oaks hope, Michita, was "fresh and well" after her midweek victory at Goodwood. (The Guardian, Monday May 26 2008)

He [Gosden] said: "She went and won the Height Of Fashion in fine style. There are a couple of horses with very hot form and she enters the stage of legitimate outsiders with a chance." (The Press Association, Thursday May 30 2008)
 
Well Gosden isn't given to hyping horses and decoding him always involves a bit of reading between the lines given his penchant for under-statement. Michita isn't believed to be ground dependent to the best of my knowledge, so the fact that he wants a bit of cut with the view to disadvantaging Lush Lashes rather than benefiting his own horse is interesting. It tells me he's clearly aiming at the favourite, and is prepared to foresake his own optimum conditions to get something under which he feels he'll be comparatiovely less inconvienced by. Is he therefore by proxy saying that there's only one horse in the race he regards as better than his? Which makes Michita intersting at about 5 or 6 times the price.

I should say I've tweaked my methods a bit this season, although given the histrionics of Goodwood Michita would have been rated on the old method anyway given that I omitted the faster straight course from variance, as I'd normally split them. Afigure of 97 to 99 is normally enough to win an Oaks, (Light Shift was 97.05) and a horse normally improves 2.5 to 3.5 points for their prep provided all things remain on course. If I'm right (a big if) then Michita is booked for a place, and a win in a poor year (which this year might be?). Having said that, it only requires one horse to be a stand out from the vintage, and they could run away with it aka Alexandrova
 
I had a good look at this race earlier as lying Jt 2nd in the Classics comp I'd like to extend the advantage :)

Using different methods to Warbler's I've come to very similar conclusions, with one addition.
My shortlist is Chinese White, Michita - and Look Here.

I wouldn't rule out Sail either esp for a place; but the front three are the ones I think will both get the trip and handle the likely ground. There are some good fillies eg Miracle Seeker who will barely get the trip so the rain is going to have a significant effect imo.

I wouldn't touch Lush Lashes on anything slower than G/F - and she's not going to get that; but I wouldn't rule out the 'enigmatic' Mr Bolger springing a surprise with the Mrs Bolger-owned Prima Luce who will relish the conditions :suspect:
 
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