The Oaks 2008

The Weekenders verdict on the fillies classic;

Cullinan - Lush Lashes
Winstanley - Clowance
Sexton - Chinese White
Edwards - Michita
Milnes - Michita
Hunter - Chinese White (Michita to place)
Molloy - Chinese White
Whitehouse-Jones - Lush Lashes

I expect Chinese White to go off favourite now
 
What chance does Savethisdanceforme have of getting the trip? I think she is a different filly with some cut in the ground but the distance is a clear worry.
 
1. Adored (16)
2. Cape Amber (6)
3. Chinese White (14)
4. Clowance (3)
5. Ice Queen (5)
6. Katiyra (11)
7. Look Here (13)
8. Lush Lashes (8)
9. Michita (9)
10. Miracle Seeker (2)
11. Moonstone (10)
12. Sail (4)
13. Saphira's Fire (1)
14. Savethisdanceforme (15)
15. Sugar Mint (12)
16. Tiffany Diamond (7)
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Jun 4 2008, 09:30 AM
What chance does Savethisdanceforme have of getting the trip? I think she is a different filly with some cut in the ground but the distance is a clear worry.
Click to expand...
Fwiw, I decided even given the likely conditions, no chance;
but I often underestimate the improvement AOB can get from one race to another
 
How much was Lush Lashes failure on her only start on non-fast ground down to it being a) particularly bad ground and b) her seasonal debut? No reason on breeding why she shouldn't be suited to any kind of decent ground (well, from Galileo anyway - there's not much evidence of anything on her immediate dam's side). Anyone got an opinion on it from the point of view of show she moves?
 
Worth noting, Tiffany Diamond has been sold to Coolmore (having previously been owned by O’Briens wife).
 
Tiffany Diamond has only a length or so to make up on Adored and appears to be improving with every race. Should be good each way value.
 
I don't disagree with you, but there won't be many Oaks winners who, less than a month beforehand, lost an apprentice handicap off a mark of 70.
 
I have it down to four. Lush Lashes, obviously, but in line with Warbler and Headstrong I think the Goodwood and Lingfield trials have been overlooked. Michita, Miracle Seeker and Look Here all interest me.

What's your worry over Miracle Seeker staying Headstrong?
 
I had a look at some of the runners this evening.

The difficulty I have is getting a handle on the Irish runners and with there being so many and a paucity of smart form among the home defence, I wouldn't be surprised if this was a clean sweep for Ireland and I probably won't have a bet.

Best of the UK fillies on my figures is Michita.
 
Originally posted by Gareth Flynn@Jun 4 2008, 02:18 PM
I have it down to four. Lush Lashes, obviously, but in line with Warbler and Headstrong I think the Goodwood and Lingfield trials have been overlooked. Michita, Miracle Seeker and Look Here all interest me.

What's your worry over Miracle Seeker staying Headstrong?
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Well I thought if it were softish ground then there are other fillies which are more likely to stay than her; I felt that she won't get 12f in soft as well as the others I've listed, as her only win has been on G/F. But having looked again at her breeding, she probably will stay, you are quite right! - but on G/S or S? Not so sure...

I'd love to see her win mind, Clive Cox is one of my fave raves, one of the nicest people you could ever meet, and a serious trainer imo. And MS is half sister to Katchit - what a family that would be if she won a Classic!

Another thread of my thinking was that Ralph Beckett is on record as thinking that the softer ground will give Look Here a very good chance of reversing placings with Miracle Seeker. Would love to see him win too!

Just can't have Lush Lashes though - both her wins were on GF and she was well down the field on Heavy - and tho it was fto this year, and in March, there is no mention in the reports of her looking noticeably unfit. :)

Have had another look at Adored, and can now see why Murtagh is rumoured to have gone for her
Sher seems to have a serious chance, though I prefer Chinese White... Have forgotten what the draw will do dammit, and have to post up my choices now...
 
Surely you have to go with Lush Lashes now ...

WATERING NOT RULED OUT FOR EPSOM

By Keith Hamer, PA Sport

Drying conditions at Epsom may lead officials to consider watering the track ahead of Saturday's Vodafone Derby.

The ground is now good from good to soft thanks to warm sunshine and a steady breeze on Thursday.

Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper said: "The ground is continuing to dry out and I have changed the going description to good from good to soft.

"It is lovely ground and we will see how it rides tomorrow. The forecast is for mainly dry weather between now and the Derby on Saturday afternoon. Some light showers could fall overnight Friday into Saturday.

"The way the ground has dried this week watering for Saturday may have to be considered. I am not anxious to water and would much prefer nature to do it for me - a couple of millimetres at any time would probably suffice."
 
Bolger believes Lush Lashes is best with a bit of give in the ground- he has said he would not like to see the word "firm" in the going description.
 
Cooper has been dealt a very good hand by Mother Nature. The ground has been watered naturally and has dried out naturally. It should be a perfect Flat racing surface over the two days. How can he even think about watering?
 
Have really struggled to get a handle on this year's Oaks to be honest. Lush Lashes was very impressive in the Musidora last time and that represents the strongest form of offer but while her price is probably about right, it doesn't represent much in the way of value to me and there must be a slight doubt about her ability to handle the track.

The two most interesting for me are the unexposed Oxx and Weld fillies, Katiyra and Chinese White. Katiyra's run in the 1,000 Guineas trial was undoubtedly promising but I can't imagine she's had the perfect prep for an Oaks and have a feeling her inexperience might count against her. Price is totally gone as well.

I think Chinese White is the most talented filly in the race. While her pedigree suggests she will ideally be suited by middle distances (probably with cut in the ground), she has already proved she acts on a quick surface and has plenty of pace. I would have similar doubts with her experience as with Katiyra (particularly as she ran about a bit in front last time at Gowran), but if she can overcome her inexperience, I think she'll win.

Hard to know what to make of the Ballydoyle fillies. Adored is clearly progressing rapidly and is the choice of Murtagh, but I'm not sure about the Naas form (though the second filly is without doubt another improver) and have a feeling she could be caught out for pace as she seems a real thorough stayer. I would expect Moonstone to step up a good deal on her run in the Musidora. Mile and a half should bring about improvement and she should have learned a good deal from York.

Like others, I Gosden's filly Michita to run well at a decent price. Slight doubt about her staying the trip though perhaps on pedigree, though her trainer doesn't see it as a worry.

In short, I'm fucking clueless. :D
 
I'm not keen on any of the Ballydoyle entries (same goes for the Derby) but I think Sail is likely to run the best of them tomorrow. Ryan Moore on top too, which can't be bad.
 
I'll plump for katiyra, but it's a very open race.

Was the site down or just my PC? If yes, well done to whoever got it up and running again so quickly.
 
I cannot recall two Classics that were so open. Its impossible to have a vert strong view on either race given the nature of the horses (unexposed) competing.
 
I have gone for a reverse forecast on Lush Lashes and Michita. They have the best form going into the race but there are plenty of others in there capable of having the best form coming out of it.

John Oxx sends runners abroad rarely enough and never without a reason, so Katiyra has to be feared, but it seems to me her price already reflects her connections' reputation.

I haven't seen Chinese White's Gowran race but the bare form of it is not so exciting, so I would prefer the O'Brien fillies Adored and Tiffany Diamond for each way purposes.
 
More favourable mentions of Look Here in here than the winning price might have suggested!

Seriously impressive when she got motoring, and the time of the race was very good.
 
The deliberate crash of the site wasn't really necessary to prevent Dom having her moment in the sun though
 
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