The Oaks (and beyond)

Was scratched from the English Guineas and meant to prep in the Irish Guineas with the Oaks still the main aim according to a quote in the RP 30th April.
 
Irish Guineas was always the target for Termagant after her G1 win last year.

Only a twelve day gap between the Guineas and Oaks this year so a lot will depend on how she does in the Guineas. He is also in the Coronation Stakes.
 
Latest stage -

Akdarena
Aviate
Awe Inspiring (IRE)
Bikini Babe (IRE)
Cabaret (IRE)
Ceilidh House
Champagnelifestyle
Famous (IRE)
Gertrude Bell
Gile Na Greine (IRE)
Hibaayeb
Issabella Gem (IRE)
Jira
Lady Lupus (IRE)
Lillie Langtry (IRE)
Marie de Medici (USA)
Meeznah (USA)
Miss Miracle
Perfect Vision
Remember When (IRE)
Rumoush (USA)
Sajjhaa
Srda (USA)
Termagant (IRE)
Timepiece
 
Just saw the question of the day on the Racing Post site and mis-read it as I initially agreed it. 'Are 7/1 quotes about Sajjha for the Oaks appealing?' Appalling? Perhaps. Appealing? Certainly not!
 
Looks a wide open Oaks - I have Cabaret/Remember When backed antepost but will leave it at that. Think it could throw up a surprise.
 
Rumoush is the one that slightly interests me. She'll stay given her female line and I have a feeling she could drift to a backable price on the day as the money comes for the Cecil fillies.
 
Remember When should be favourite for me, she looks like Peeping Fawn all over again. Give the yard's current nonsense with the Derby though, I'd be waiting until it's NRNB though.
 
If she is Peeping Fawn all over again she will leave it late and be held off by the least fancied of Cecil's pair !
 
Final Decs -

Akdarena K.Manning
Aviate Tom Queally
Awe Inspiring (IRE)J. A. Heffernan
Bikini Babe (IRE) Kieren Fallon
Cabaret (IRE) Colm O'Donoghue
Ceilidh House Jim Crowley
Champagnelifestyle Michael Hills
Gertrude Bell William Buick
Marie de Medici (USA) Joe Fanning
Meeznah (USA) Ted Durcan
Remember When (IRE) Johnny Murtagh
Rumoush (USA) Richard Hills
Sajjhaa Frankie Dettori
Snow Fairy (IRE) Ryan Moore
Timepiece Eddie Ahern
 
I backed Timepiece last autumn at 33/1. I've not torn up my ticket but I've been disappointed by her runs this season and I think she's a much shorter price now than she should be. Logic dictates that in those circumstances I should lay my bet off but I'm going to let it ride.

It seems to me that the front three in the Oaks betting are trading at falsely short prices, particularly as none of them are certain stayers. Snow Fairy also has stamina doubts but the form of her Goodwood win stacks up just as well if not better than Aviate's in the Musidora and she's more than three times the price of that filly. Unlike the York race, Snow Fairy's event was truly-run and she certainly ran there like a filly who would stay further. At 20 on Betfair, I think she's a decent bet.
 
Timepiece? There was a point when she moved up early in the straight where I thought she was going to go away and win impressively. She didn't - obviously - and we know now about the pace distribution in the race which might have detracted from her performance but I wasn't really sure whether she was putting it all in to be honest. I'm doing that thing all holders of ante-post vouchers do and imagining a scenario in which she might win pulling a train and I think that would involve her being dropped out and brought with a steady run in the straight. She obviously works well at home and I think it would be unfair to say she's never done it on the track but I'm just pessimistic, that's all.
 
Yes that's pretty much my reading of it. There was definitely an element of her nor putting it in, and her siblings have all looked quirky to varying degrees. I think her natural ability will see her put up a big career-best, but I'd hope for the best if she hits the front 2f out!
 
I always try and look for those near certain to stay, and one that I keep coming back to is Gertrude Bell. She's quite a big price (especially compared to some in single figures) - anyone with any thoughts on her?
 
Hamm said:
I always try and look for those near certain to stay, and one that I keep coming back to is Gertrude Bell. She's quite a big price (especially compared to some in single figures) - anyone with any thoughts on her?
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Certainly looked as if she gets the trip at Chester. But the time was slow and they may be others that are a bit better and even more comfortable with the trip. She’s not done much wrong though and a trainer I look to back.
 
davidjohnson said:
What did you make of the Lingfield run Gus?
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Remember you putting together those sectionals, DJ. The view I've taken of the race is that Ceilidh House is open to every bit as much - if not more - improvement as Timepiece at 4 points bigger in the market without the questionable attitude.

I've backed Ceilidh House and Akdarena ante-post (along with You'll Be Mine last year). If I was looking for the 'sure stayer' angle it would have to be the Bolger filly.
 
Anyone else think Remember When may not stay? I don't really get why she is 8/1, and her stablemate, if you can forgive the poor showing in the Musidora, is 40/1. I wouldn't leave Cabaret unbacked at 40s, and imagine she could be a lot bigger on BF.
 
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trackside528 said:
Remember you putting together those sectionals, DJ. The view I've taken of the race is that Ceilidh House is open to every bit as much - if not more - improvement as Timepiece at 4 points bigger in the market without the questionable attitude.

I've backed Ceilidh House and Akdarena ante-post (along with You'll Be Mine last year). If I was looking for the 'sure stayer' angle it would have to be the Bolger filly.
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They will probably be my two as well but If Rumoush gets the trip I think she will win... Just a big IF...
 
Can't say I have a strong view and think it might be a poor Oaks. The big unknown quantity is the Jarvis filly who, for want of a better cliche, could be anything. Let's hope she shows herself to be very, very good.

As Prufrock has pointed out on his blog, there are a few doubtful stayers that are taking out quite a chunk of the market. Generally I like to go with the solid horses, and in this instance I'd rather have those that are sure to get the trip on side than those you hope do.
 
Hamm said:
Anyone else think Remember When may not stay? I don't really get why she is 8/1, and her stablemate, if you can forgive the poor showing in the Musidora, is 40/1. I wouldn't leave Cabaret unbacked at 40s, and imagine she could be a lot bigger on BF.
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I wouldn't be convinced she'd stay. The Dosage makes her out to be about a 9 furlong horse.

There is another one from Ireland who should stay all day though.
 
SteveM said:
There is another one from Ireland who should stay all day though.
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Akadema? I think she nicked that race last time.

Aragorn said:
If Rumoush gets the trip I think she will win... Just a big IF...
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Sarayir must have got a fair amount of stamina genes from Height of Fashion. I think she's well worth a bet but only to small stakes as the Oaks has a habit of producing perverse results.
 
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