The Oaks (and beyond)

Galileo - are you still holding on to your Cabaret bet? I think she's got a cracking chance.
 
davidjohnson said:
Can't say I have a strong view and think it might be a poor Oaks. The big unknown quantity is the Jarvis filly who, for want of a better cliche, could be anything. Let's hope she shows herself to be very, very good.

As Prufrock has pointed out on his blog, there are a few doubtful stayers that are taking out quite a chunk of the market. Generally I like to go with the solid horses, and in this instance I'd rather have those that are sure to get the trip on side than those you hope do.
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Yes, I read the blog (very good as usual) and think the principles are too short. Despite having no formlines with which to suggest backing her, I think Sajihaa is the most likely winner of the shorter priced horses.

Sajihaa, Cabaret and Gertrude Bell for me.
 
I have to say Sajjhaa is a laughable price, she's won a crap maiden in a slow time. It's not the strongest Oaks but how she's the same price as Aviate and shorter than the Bolger filly is beyond me. If she was trained by one of the slightly lesser trainers she'd be about 25/1.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I have to say Sajjhaa is a laughable price, she's won a crap maiden in a slow time. It's not the strongest Oaks but how she's the same price as Aviate and shorter than the Bolger filly is beyond me. If she was trained by one of the slightly lesser trainers she'd be about 25/1.
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I'm wondering if Bolger's filly will be sent off favourite. Should have backed her at bigger prices. 8s is probably the best you'll do now.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I have to say Sajjhaa is a laughable price, she's won a crap maiden in a slow time. It's not the strongest Oaks but how she's the same price as Aviate and shorter than the Bolger filly is beyond me. If she was trained by one of the slightly lesser trainers she'd be about 25/1.
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Slow overall time perhaps, but weren't the sectionals quite impressive?

It's hard to explain why she is the price she is, I agree, but in a potentially average year, there is the possibility she is something quite good.

I find it equally hard to understand the prices of some others - Remember When, Timepiece (both too short) and Cabaret (huge price).
 
SteveM said:
I'm wondering if Bolger's filly will be sent off favourite. Should have backed her at bigger prices. 8s is probably the best you'll do now.
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She has a good chance - it would be tough to win an Oaks leading all the way from the front though.
 
I'd agree with Timepiece, how she's shorter than the likes of Snow Fairy I don't know. Think Remember When is arguably a touch big at 8s, think her Aviate and the Bolger filly should be vying for favourtism on form. Remember When just looks a carbon copy of Peeping Fawn and the time of the Guineas was very solid, I've no worries about her not staying with the dam's side of the family and she looked like she'd handle a step up in trip at the Curragh.

I seem to remember Cabaret looked a 2yo with no scope last year or am I confusing her with a different Ballydoyle filly? Can't see her getting any nearer to Aviate.
 
Hamm said:
She has a good chance - it would be tough to win an Oaks leading all the way from the front though.
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They wouldn't need to do that though. I wonder if they've been purposely stretching them at 10 furlongs because they know she has the stamina in the locker. If Bolger can teach New Approach to settle he can do it for pretty much anything I'd guess.
 
New Approach pulled like a train for around 11 of the 12 furlongs!

Yes, you're right, they could well take that approach.
 
Hamm said:
New Approach pulled like a train for around 11 of the 12 furlongs!

Yes, you're right, they could well take that approach.
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Yes "settle" is not the right word re New Approach. Good enough to win though, despite wrestling him to his knees. Let's hope the same about today.
 
The thing with form about horses at this stage of their careers is it only tells part of the story. How many of today's field had better form than Sajjah after just one maiden run? few if any. It's not reason to back her, but it's reason to think twice about laying her.
 
Impressive stuff there from the winner.. Remember When prob better over 1m2f, she'd love a spot of Nassau action.

Sajjhaa proved to be what a ridiculous price she was, backing animals like that at those prices has to be the quickest way to the poorhouse.
 
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