The Pointing Thread

It's been heavy rain for the last 7 hours. I live 10 mins from BFL. There must be some doubt to hold any inspection. Hope its on, but this rain is serious and more forecast tomorrow.
 
Today sees the first Hunter Chase of the season over in Ireland and it sees the return of Salsify.

Outside of him the key formline appears to be the Loughanmore Open won by Slippers Percy early last month which saw a racefit Tammys Hill travel well until after the last when both the winner and Onefortheroad Mac rallied with TH finishing runner-up and Onefortheroad Mac back in third, OM has a 10lb swing with the runner-up for a length beating and has been out of the frame just once (when beaten less than 1 1/2 lengths in a Downpatrick Maiden HC last season) from just six starts on soft to heavy or softer ground whilst his last run was arguably Tammys Hill's best effort in the conditions. Salsify is obviously the one to beat but he was beaten on his return to action last season in a point at Dromahane and though he's a very worthy favourite he could be worth opposing FTO whilst Merchant Royal has performed badly for his new trainer David Christie in points this season including when weakening very tamely after the second last in the previously mentioned Open up at Loughanmore.

Would be happy to take 9/2 about Onefortheroad Mac W/O Salsify and 9/1 E/W in the outright markets. Hoping for some matchbets to oppose Tammys Hill and Merchant Royal in too :)

Martin
 
Hills have priced up the match bets with Onefortheroad Mac 6/5 to reverse form with Tammys Hill and 5/6 to beat Merchant Royal :)
 
Some updates from the start of the season:

The ex-Gordon Elliott trained Cottage Oak is two from two so far this season with Mens Open victories at Barbury and Chaddesley Corbett - his aim is the Foxhunters via a Kelso/Newbury HC whilst stablemate Promising Anshan won his first Ladies Open at Barbury and was beaten into second in the bog at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas, his aim is the same.

The exceptionally promising Harbour Court of Alan Hill's made a winning return at Cottenham last week in the fastest time of the day under James Tudor, he's now won 3 of his 4 career starts with the sole defeat coming at the hands of Sheila Crowe's Woodview Prince at Whitfield last season. His aim is the Intermediate Final at Cheltenham in March.

On the same Cottenham card the Grade 1 winner Herecomesthetruth beat the very decent Divine Intavention and co in the feature Mens Open with Earth Dream 5th, Hennessy 6th, On Borrowed Wings 7th whilst Ferdy Murphy's son Rhys Morgan-Murphy rode the useful Galant Nuit to finish second in the Novice Riders race. Rear Gunner won the Ladies Open for Rose Grissell with sister Hannah riding and the John Ferguson yard got on the scoresheet too with a victory for Dreamy George in the second division of the 2 1/2m Maiden.

At Chaddesley Corbett the Welsh had a good day with Charly Prichard giving Bringinthebranston an exceptional waiting ride given that they pair were tailed off with a circuit to go to come through to easily take the Maiden with the David Brace yard recording a double after Silver Token (Tom David) had taken the opener.

One of my favourite meetings of the year took place at Larkhill yesterday - and the opening race went to the highly promising Glass N A Half for the Richard Barber team, the result might have been different had Peter Mason not given Shy John far too much to do with the partnership finishing very strongly back in third.

Mendip Express chased home the 140+ rated pair of Harry The Viking and Marshal Zhukov when an odds-on favourite for a Maiden at this meeting in 2011 but he went one better here and remains unbeaten when completing since that debut when he took the second divison of the Club Members race from Little Cornham. The horse to take out of the race may well be the ex-Irish West Cork Flash who seemed better suited to the return to the smaller fences when finishing with a rare rattle late on and he'd be interesting back on softer ground or upped in trip.

Master Medic initiated a double for Emily MacMahon when scoring in the AGA sponsored Ladies Open from last years winner Description (Gina Andrews) and Billyvoddan (Jane Williams). MM clearly retains plenty of ability and will be tough to beat in similar races in the coming months.

The Mens equivalent saw an exceptional ride from the in-form Alex Edwards, stable jockey to the equally in form Phil Rowley on the ex-NTD trained Sybarite who's still racing in the Mould colours to beat the likes of Roulez Cool, Coombe Hill, Dante's Storm, Benedictus, Offshore Account and co in a very hot 17 runner contest.

In the Maiden's Champagne Rosie went two better than in the Mares equivalent at Barbury when justifying joint favouritism to break her duck whilst another division of the race went to the Jack Barber ridden Zagova.

The unluckiest loser of the day was bloodstock agent Tom Malone's first runner as a trainer Silentplan who was 10 lengths clear coming to the last under Sam Waley-Cohen prior to falling, leaving victory to the Emily MacMahon ridden 16/1 shot Alskamatic.

Parstara is a bit of a course regular having finished runner-up and third at the track prior to breaking her Maiden here last season and she scored in the Restricted race under Darren Edwards from the Gerald Bailey trained Grumblers Holt who'd come some way from his Leicestershire base for today's run.

Down at Wadebridge Byerley Bear (formerly with Henry De Bromhead) took his pointing record to 2 wins from 2 starts when justifying 8/11 favouritism in the Ladies Open under Jo Buck with Mobaasher and Fiulin filling the placings, Sericina was pulled up.

The Wealerdealer also extended his record to 2 wins from 2 starts in the Restricted having broken his Maiden at the areas opening meeting at Black Forest Lodge last month whilst Faasel broke his pointing duck when taking the Mens Open from Kirkleigh and Lucette Annie.

The first Hunter Chase of the season takes place at Kelson on Sunday too :)
 
Backed Silver Story e/w earlier in the Newbury HC - goes on the ground, will stay the trip and has a good pilot. Concerned about the ground for Rumbury Grey - his only defeat last season in HC's came on soft ground at Cheltenham.

Only other thought really is that Big Game Hunter looks a massive price compared to Promising Anshan - it was FTO for the BGH and he wasn't beaten far and has a weight pull for that defeat in this. Worried about the jockey mind.

Also taken the 10/11 with Hills about Silver Story beating Promising Anshan in a match bet.

Martin
 
I know he has issues jumping regulation fences but not seeing why Benedictus is as big as 25/1. Disappointed on his return to action but then he did so last season when 4th at CC and is sure to come on for that run. Travelled very well into the race in the Intermediate Final back in May prior to tipping up and think he's well worth a bet at the current price whilst not seeing why Vic Venturi is so short on the back of a poor enough run on his first outing in UK points when conditions should really have suited him down to the ground

Would need to be taking the Bobs Law Barbury Castle run at face value to be giving him a chance IMHO as he didn't look to enjoy racing under rules when last seen and he was DQ'd for a prohibited substance after winning his HC at Chepstow two seasons ago.

Gentle George is a dark horse who'd interest me too - good yard, prolific in these races and would have a real chance if Flook could get him back whilst I'd make Coombe Hill the favourite here, even giving weight away as that Mens at Larkhill was probably the best race run so far this season with Roulez Cool just in front of him and Dante's Storm behind (also Benedictus PU).

Kirkleigh should go well too - likely to improve a lot for his seasonal return at Wadebridge last month and was a useful Novice last season. He'd be a solid option though my main bet is Benedictus.

Good luck to everyone playing today - great to have the Hunter Chases back.



Martin
 
Also had the following:

Coombe Hill @ 5/4 (vs. Vic Venturi) with Bet365

Kirkleigh @ 10/11 (vs. Bobs Law) with William Hill


Martin
 
Top performance from Kirkleigh in the conditions, stayed on dourly and improved as expected from his seasonal return.

Benedictus ran well for a long way but was found out and dropped out rapidly in the straight have traded as low as 11/2 in running.

Both match bets copped though which is pleasing and Bobs Law ran better than I expected.

Martin
 
Cheers fellas.

Kent Grand National at Charing near Ashford so will be down there for that myself and hoping to see the unbeaten (in points at least) Freddies Return come back in the feature.

We've got William Butler in the Mens Club Members race but not sure if he'll go due to the ground, Dante's Storm will be the very short priced fav if he lines up.

Best race of the week is at Horseheath - my idea of the Foxhunters winner Woodview Prince is in the Mens Open but he needs to win this and/or a Hunter Chase to qualify for Cheltenham and not much time to do it in. Roulez Cool, Sybarite and co are also entered.

Next HC action is due to be at Wetherby on Saturday whilst there's another at Musselburgh on Sunday also.

Martin
 
Palypso De Creek looks the best option here coming off a good win in a Sheriff Hutton Ladies Open under today's jockey. He disappointed last season at both Warwick and Cheltenham but the second favourite Special Portrait can take a couple of runs to come to himself whilst it's hard to see Benefit Night confirming form with SP over this longer trip (which will be a bare minimum for SP).

I saw On Borrowed Wings at Cottenham and whilst he was eased he had no chance at the time on testing enough ground on a short track whilst he hasn't run on testing ground under rules in nearly 2 years. Think the horse is far far too short relative to what he's done recently and it wouldn't be the first time that the Rucker's have bought a highly rated horse with physical issues.

Supreme Plan wasn't out of it when outpaced at Kelso and whilst he'll need to step up he's overpriced looking at his Betfair price so will have a small saver on him and the main bet on PDC given the other major contender Dammam is likely to need better ground to be seen to best effect.

Martin
 
Cheers Benny - also having the following bets with William Hill:

Benefit Night @ 11/10 (vs. On Borrowed Wings)
Supreme Plan @ 5/2 (vs. Benefit Night)

Martin
 
Tricky looking Maiden Hunter Chase today at Market Rasen - the best horse in the race on paper is Current Exchange but he has a poor record over regulation fences, albeit in Open company rather than in today's Maiden.

French Canadian was an impressive scorer on tacky ground at Intermediate level at Ampton last month and the trainer reported that he'd want better ground so any rain would be a negative to his chances - plenty of the p2p judges are backing him though.

Personally happy to take a chance on the Houldey/Mansell trained Princess Fyona at a bigger price, she's not a confident selection of a fairly hefty lay-off but did run well two starts back when chasing home the useful Ned The Post when sent off favourite and having lookedt eh most likely winner until the run in. Prior to that she'd fallen when leading at Chaddesley Corbett and the ground was most likely too quick for her at Maisemore Park when last seen in April 2011.

It was a weak open that Alfoisin won when only two ran at Mordon in May and he'd won a Witton Castle Intermediate on his previous start at Intermediate level whilst he'd run well under similar conditions to be third to Gidam Gidam and Superior Wisdom in a Ladies at Whitfield back in April. He stays well and is also worth having a small bet on.

Martin
 
Looks the value to me Benny - though slightly concerned by some of the comments coming from the jockey on Twitter in that she hopes he's fit enough to do himself justice.

Prince Massini and Charly Prichard set off in last on their only rules appearance last season and she was unseated at the eighth which would temper enthusiasm slightly given she's front run on him in the main in points. They won their two subsequent starts together on g/s and firm though the horse is probably better on softer ground. PM beat a subsequent Hunter Chase winner at Holnicote in May and then won a match race when 1/7 favourite at the same track 6 days later.

I made Surenaga the 6/4 favourite for this and he and the excellent Jane Williams have opened up at that price with the bookies. The pair were 2/2 last season after the blinkers were applied and JW was booked and whilst they unseated together when 6/4 favourite for a decent Ladies Open at Cottenham at the end of December I wouldn't read too much into that. My main concern with Surenaga (and the main reason he isn't much shorter) is his poor Hunter Chase record in the past season or so - he has however won and placed in two Military races in 2011 whilst he looked the most likely winner when tipping up at Stratford in May 2011. Any more rain would be a slight concern as though he handles soft ground he traveled like the best horse in the race in the Walrus Hunter Chase at Haydock in Feb last year prior to being pulled up on heavy whilst his best effort under rules recently came over 3 1/2m on good in the listed Summer National at Uttoxeter in June 2011.

All of Steve Flook's horses are seemingly coming on for the run so it would be something of a surprise where Bermuda Boy straight enough to win here first time out, despite his decent record at the track and he was runner-up in this race last season when sent off favourite. Bob 'N' You was a useful horse on his day under rules but he's looked pretty poor in the past couple of seasons, if back to his best hurdles form (3rd in a listed handicap at Aintree off 130) then he'd have a massive chance but he's failed to complete on two of his last three starts over fences. Shootin The Breeze drops in grade here having been pulled up over 2m 7f at Newbury last month, his best form (and indeed his only win) under rules came over 2m and he looks a doubtful stayer and could be one for 2-2 1/2m Hunter Chases later in the season whilst The Rubber Man looks out of his depth.

I've backed Prince Massini @ 9/1.

Martin
 
Tricky Trickster should win at Huntingdon if he's half the horse he was, however he hasn't won in nearly three years, his best effort since Feb 2010 was when beaten 21 lengths by Our Island over hurdles and his Chase runs have hardly exuded confidence so it's some leap of faith to be taking 5/6. I wouldn't want to back Flaming Gorge for Fleur Hawes - if the yard thought he was any good they wouldn't have let him go so siding with Start Royal who's fit from a good win in a Ladies Open at Ampton last month, the ground is a slight concern but he's the percentage call here on a track that should suit him.
 
Have two of ours going back pointing. No Panic, second at Galway and fourth in the Scottish National and Quattrocento,winner at Cheltenham although not in the festival week. Both are with Karen Lawther and NO Panic should run at Barbury Casle next meet there.
 
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