BennyB
Senior Jockey
Second weekend in June, usually go with the Mrs and a few mates. Give me a shout if you're there; I'll buy you a drink.
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The Pointing Thread
- Thread starter graysonscolumn
- Start date
trudij
Senior Jockey
Not sure, I might well try to drag my friend along 
one thing I have learnt is that going racing with a small person is way easier if you have someone to look after them for toilet breaks !!
one thing I have learnt is that going racing with a small person is way easier if you have someone to look after them for toilet breaks !!
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Anytime Benny.
Off to Parham on Saturday with Did You Ever and Tabley on Sunday with nothing other than a few quid in the pocket touch wood.
"watering heavily" Weds-Fri at Parham but told that it drains well and hopefully have at least another place.
Martin
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Not sure, I might well try to drag my friend along
Kate wasn't that bad IMHO Trudi
trudij
Senior Jockey
I shall tell her you said that.... She'll kneecap you
sorry,7.25 fairyhouse
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Sorry Moviebuff - was out last night.
Her form wasn't amazing but no surprise she went close in what wasn't a great race really, think The Tinker Molly would have been tough to beat had she stood up.
Martin
Her form wasn't amazing but no surprise she went close in what wasn't a great race really, think The Tinker Molly would have been tough to beat had she stood up.
Martin
I was afraid one of those old codgers might feel like climbing into it.
frontrunner
Conditional
- Joined
- Oct 14, 2011
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- 719
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Two competitive Hunter Chases today.
Race up at Perth looks a good one with the progressive Master Butcher the bet at 4/1. MB hails from the rules yard of Nick Alexander and finished runner-up behind Milano Magic in a decent looking Club Members event run in a decent time (3 seconds slower than Ladies Open carrying a stone more). MB looked a promising type in his youth for Rebecca Curtis and looks to be fulfilling that promise having yet to finished outside of the first two for the Alexander's this season (from 4 starts), he was arguably unlucky last time out given the saddle slipped and at the current price he looks a solid bet against a tricky customer in Wayupinthesky and the underpriced Railway Dillon and Royal Chatelier.
The drift on Mostly Bob is worrying and the fact he hasn't been seen since 2013 is also a concern but at the current price of around 10/1+ he looks worth a small e/w bet, most of these have their issues with Ballytober arguably somewhat fortunate to finish in front of Vincitore at Newbury last time out. Anseanachai Cliste should improve markedly for the jockey change while Gunmoney's jockey is far from being one of the best around, MB is very weak in the markets but if he can run to anything like his old rating he'd be able to take this though it doesn't look a race to get too involved in.
Martin
Race up at Perth looks a good one with the progressive Master Butcher the bet at 4/1. MB hails from the rules yard of Nick Alexander and finished runner-up behind Milano Magic in a decent looking Club Members event run in a decent time (3 seconds slower than Ladies Open carrying a stone more). MB looked a promising type in his youth for Rebecca Curtis and looks to be fulfilling that promise having yet to finished outside of the first two for the Alexander's this season (from 4 starts), he was arguably unlucky last time out given the saddle slipped and at the current price he looks a solid bet against a tricky customer in Wayupinthesky and the underpriced Railway Dillon and Royal Chatelier.
The drift on Mostly Bob is worrying and the fact he hasn't been seen since 2013 is also a concern but at the current price of around 10/1+ he looks worth a small e/w bet, most of these have their issues with Ballytober arguably somewhat fortunate to finish in front of Vincitore at Newbury last time out. Anseanachai Cliste should improve markedly for the jockey change while Gunmoney's jockey is far from being one of the best around, MB is very weak in the markets but if he can run to anything like his old rating he'd be able to take this though it doesn't look a race to get too involved in.
Martin
jft2005
Conditional
Two hunter chases on Thursday afternoon and we go to Scotland for the first one. It looks a fairly trappy affair with four of the runners all having a form rating of 10-4. The two Nick Alexander trained runners both ran at Dalston on Easter Monday. Royal Chatelier won the Mens Open and that was his best run of the season so far. He won easily, but it wasn't much of a race and this is stronger. Master Butcher would have won but for his saddle slipping slipping on the run-in. He has had a good season and the winning time was 7 seconds quicker than the Mens although they carried 4lbs more. He is improving although he would need to again to win this.
Railway Dillon is the current favourite and I am not really sure why. Granted he was 2nd to Douglas Julian at Kelso but even though that one won a handicap after that I am not sure the form is that strong. He was then stuffed out of sight by Major Malarky next time and even if you took that one out of the equation it wasn't a great effort. He won a Hunt Members at Sherriff Hutton on Easter Saturday but he made hard work of it and it wasn't a strong heat.
Mister D and Darsi Dancer both finished behind Wayupinthesky at Kelso 10 days ago and it is hard to see either reversing that form, indeed I think he can follow up. Harry Bannister gave him a cracking ride that day on a horse who needs delivering as late as possible. It was a much improved effort from Carlisle and was much more like the form he had shown previously. I think the 2nd Crazy Diamond is an above average northern pointer and thus I think the form is rock solid. Given his running style he may have even had more in hand, but even a repeat should be good enough to take this.
Wayupinthesky 2pts
First time this Warwick hunter chase has been run in late April and it is a decent little field. Ballytober and Vincitore were 2nd and 3rd to Twirling Magnet at Newbury last time. That was the 2nd time the former had been 2nd to Twirling Magnet and he got closer to him at Newbury. He was 3rd at Ludlow last time, but given the two in front of him, Tugboat and Rockiteer, have both won since the form looks rock solid. The return to this better ground should help him as well. I thought Vincitore ran well at Newbury given it was his seasonal debut and there is every chance he will come on for that. Both appear to hold strong claims.
Anseanachai Castle is an interesting runner. David Maxwell owns him and so when I initially saw Will Biddick was on top I thought David must have been injured after his fall on Sunday. I have found out though that isn't the case. David is actually looking to sell the horse as he doesn't get on with him which is backed up by his form in points so far this season. His win last time is meaningless form and he had shown very little prior to that. Now his form in Ireland looks pretty good and he looked a progressive horse based on his hunter chase win at Tipperary last May. David hopes that with a better jockey booked that he shows better form and thus he can get more money for him when he sells him. On his pointing form he has no chance, on his Irish form and the jockey change does give him a chance. On the balance though at the price I think he is just too risky to chance.
Gunmoney has taken his point wins to nine this season, but neither look overly strong form. He was a close 2nd to Mr Mercurial in February but was flattered by finishing so close and then he was 2nd to Doctor Kingsley last time, but that horse hasn't been in great form this season. Obviously the jockey is always going to be a negative as he proved in hunter chases last season. I am also not sure the horse wants to go this far.
Mostly Bob has a chance on his win at Stratford off a mark of 123 where he beat Monday's Hexham winner Beggar's Velvet. He wants fast ground so that is in his favour, but he was always very in and out. Also the trip would worry me especially having been off the track for over 500 days.
The bottom two on the racecard look to have a bit to find.
I think the betting has this right with Ballytober and Vincitore the joint favourites. The other three mentioned above are all some sort of danger, but I do think one of these two will end up winning. Vincitore should improve for the Newbury run, but against that Ballytober's run last time is looking a strong piece of form on ground which wasn't ideal for him. Both horses are currently 11/4 so I think the best thing to do is split our stakes on them as I am finding it hard to go for one over the other.
Ballytober 1pt
Vincitore 1pt
Railway Dillon is the current favourite and I am not really sure why. Granted he was 2nd to Douglas Julian at Kelso but even though that one won a handicap after that I am not sure the form is that strong. He was then stuffed out of sight by Major Malarky next time and even if you took that one out of the equation it wasn't a great effort. He won a Hunt Members at Sherriff Hutton on Easter Saturday but he made hard work of it and it wasn't a strong heat.
Mister D and Darsi Dancer both finished behind Wayupinthesky at Kelso 10 days ago and it is hard to see either reversing that form, indeed I think he can follow up. Harry Bannister gave him a cracking ride that day on a horse who needs delivering as late as possible. It was a much improved effort from Carlisle and was much more like the form he had shown previously. I think the 2nd Crazy Diamond is an above average northern pointer and thus I think the form is rock solid. Given his running style he may have even had more in hand, but even a repeat should be good enough to take this.
Wayupinthesky 2pts
First time this Warwick hunter chase has been run in late April and it is a decent little field. Ballytober and Vincitore were 2nd and 3rd to Twirling Magnet at Newbury last time. That was the 2nd time the former had been 2nd to Twirling Magnet and he got closer to him at Newbury. He was 3rd at Ludlow last time, but given the two in front of him, Tugboat and Rockiteer, have both won since the form looks rock solid. The return to this better ground should help him as well. I thought Vincitore ran well at Newbury given it was his seasonal debut and there is every chance he will come on for that. Both appear to hold strong claims.
Anseanachai Castle is an interesting runner. David Maxwell owns him and so when I initially saw Will Biddick was on top I thought David must have been injured after his fall on Sunday. I have found out though that isn't the case. David is actually looking to sell the horse as he doesn't get on with him which is backed up by his form in points so far this season. His win last time is meaningless form and he had shown very little prior to that. Now his form in Ireland looks pretty good and he looked a progressive horse based on his hunter chase win at Tipperary last May. David hopes that with a better jockey booked that he shows better form and thus he can get more money for him when he sells him. On his pointing form he has no chance, on his Irish form and the jockey change does give him a chance. On the balance though at the price I think he is just too risky to chance.
Gunmoney has taken his point wins to nine this season, but neither look overly strong form. He was a close 2nd to Mr Mercurial in February but was flattered by finishing so close and then he was 2nd to Doctor Kingsley last time, but that horse hasn't been in great form this season. Obviously the jockey is always going to be a negative as he proved in hunter chases last season. I am also not sure the horse wants to go this far.
Mostly Bob has a chance on his win at Stratford off a mark of 123 where he beat Monday's Hexham winner Beggar's Velvet. He wants fast ground so that is in his favour, but he was always very in and out. Also the trip would worry me especially having been off the track for over 500 days.
The bottom two on the racecard look to have a bit to find.
I think the betting has this right with Ballytober and Vincitore the joint favourites. The other three mentioned above are all some sort of danger, but I do think one of these two will end up winning. Vincitore should improve for the Newbury run, but against that Ballytober's run last time is looking a strong piece of form on ground which wasn't ideal for him. Both horses are currently 11/4 so I think the best thing to do is split our stakes on them as I am finding it hard to go for one over the other.
Ballytober 1pt
Vincitore 1pt
Well done with Master Butcher, Martin
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Any thoughts on today's Chepstow HC?
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
I think Desertmore View will win if he stands up - seen nothing to think that won't happen.
Patricktom Boru seems to hate regulation fences and I'd be wary of the form of the Ffos Las Hunter Chase in which the mare finished runner-up. Fine Resolve is the danger to the favourite in my opinion.
Martin
Patricktom Boru seems to hate regulation fences and I'd be wary of the form of the Ffos Las Hunter Chase in which the mare finished runner-up. Fine Resolve is the danger to the favourite in my opinion.
Martin
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Thanks Martin, 7/4 taken!
jft2005
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It is the Dunraven Bowl at Chepstow on Friday evening and I have narrowed the field down to 2.
Banned In Bhutan has a good jockey, but he was beaten in a match on Saturday. Was well backed when he won his maiden, but has to improve a fair bit to win this.
I saw C Me In Oz finish 3rd just after Christmas and had him down as a future maiden winner which he duly achieved when bolting up last time. That was on soft ground and he has yet to run on a quicker surface so that is a concern. Is obviously open to improvement having only his 5th start, but needs to find a fair bit.
Fine Resolve, Railway Benefit and Patricktom Boru all won on the same card at Ystradowen last time. Fine Resolve was the slowest, Railway Benefit was just over a second quicker and the latter was 13s faster than Fine Resolve. More about Patricktom Boru in a bit.
Kimora won a bad race last time, whilst Sweet Like You is obviously interesting having finished 2nd to the useful yardstick Catspin at Ffos Las. She had only won a maiden prior to that and did manage to win her Restricted at Andoversford last time, but she didn't jump well in a match. That was on good ground, but the fact she handled such dreadful ground at Ffos Las makes me wonder if she wants a surface as quick as this.
With the two outsiders having little chance it leaves us with Desertmore View and the previously mentioned Patricktom Boru. Desertmore View was going to win a decent enough race at Larkhill on his British debut, but fell at the last. Crucially that was on good to firm ground so we know he handles conditions. He bolted up by 20L the next time and the form has been well franked since as the 2nd has won twice since. He went on to win again next time himself, but he finished alone that day after his 3 other rivals departed the scene so it told us nothing new.
Patricktom Boru was one of my tips in this race last year, but he ended up a well beaten 4th. That was down to the fact the ground had gone against him and he thrives on a quicker surface. Why on earth connections ran him in the bog at Ffos Las last month I will never know, especially as they said after he won the time before that this race was the target again as the ground went against him last year. We can safely ignore the Ffos Las run and as I state above he won in a quick time impressively over Easter.
Patricktom Boru opened up favourite, but Desertmore View has already been well backed and is now at the head of the market. He is clearly progressing well and is certainly worth having on side, but at the price Patricktom Boru is the better value. Now he has got his ground he should be capable of showing his pointing form under Rules.
Patricktom Boru 2pts
Desertmore View 1pt
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Banned In Bhutan has a good jockey, but he was beaten in a match on Saturday. Was well backed when he won his maiden, but has to improve a fair bit to win this.
I saw C Me In Oz finish 3rd just after Christmas and had him down as a future maiden winner which he duly achieved when bolting up last time. That was on soft ground and he has yet to run on a quicker surface so that is a concern. Is obviously open to improvement having only his 5th start, but needs to find a fair bit.
Fine Resolve, Railway Benefit and Patricktom Boru all won on the same card at Ystradowen last time. Fine Resolve was the slowest, Railway Benefit was just over a second quicker and the latter was 13s faster than Fine Resolve. More about Patricktom Boru in a bit.
Kimora won a bad race last time, whilst Sweet Like You is obviously interesting having finished 2nd to the useful yardstick Catspin at Ffos Las. She had only won a maiden prior to that and did manage to win her Restricted at Andoversford last time, but she didn't jump well in a match. That was on good ground, but the fact she handled such dreadful ground at Ffos Las makes me wonder if she wants a surface as quick as this.
With the two outsiders having little chance it leaves us with Desertmore View and the previously mentioned Patricktom Boru. Desertmore View was going to win a decent enough race at Larkhill on his British debut, but fell at the last. Crucially that was on good to firm ground so we know he handles conditions. He bolted up by 20L the next time and the form has been well franked since as the 2nd has won twice since. He went on to win again next time himself, but he finished alone that day after his 3 other rivals departed the scene so it told us nothing new.
Patricktom Boru was one of my tips in this race last year, but he ended up a well beaten 4th. That was down to the fact the ground had gone against him and he thrives on a quicker surface. Why on earth connections ran him in the bog at Ffos Las last month I will never know, especially as they said after he won the time before that this race was the target again as the ground went against him last year. We can safely ignore the Ffos Las run and as I state above he won in a quick time impressively over Easter.
Patricktom Boru opened up favourite, but Desertmore View has already been well backed and is now at the head of the market. He is clearly progressing well and is certainly worth having on side, but at the price Patricktom Boru is the better value. Now he has got his ground he should be capable of showing his pointing form under Rules.
Patricktom Boru 2pts
Desertmore View 1pt
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BennyB
Senior Jockey
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Without wishing to burden you with the weight of all my financial hopes and dreams Martin, I am fully expecting you to go through the card at Cheltenham tonight.
Eagerly awaiting your insight, should you be so kind as to share it.
Eagerly awaiting your insight, should you be so kind as to share it.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Will post more later but best horse in Wales at the moment (better than Desertmore View) is Repeat Business who goes in the 17:25.
Martin
Martin
BennyB
Senior Jockey
Already backed that one but now you've endorsed it I'm going back for a much bigger bet!! Thanks Martin.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
16:50
Sam Cavallaro @ 15/2 has been rejuvenated by the switch to Heidi Brookshaw’s Shropshire yard in the Spring. The ex-David Christie-trained gelding had some solid form in Ireland but was always finding the three mile trip and soft ground against him. His run behind Pacha Du Polder at Ludlow sets the standard form wise and his recent success in a three runner point augurs well for his chances here with the excellent David Noonan booked to ride.
At a bigger price Realt Ag Leimt @ 25/1 should go well here. A winner over three miles in this grade at Huntingdon last year he ran well for a long way prior to weakening out of it after the last over two and a half miles at Southwell recently and provided he handles the drop back in trip ok he could go well for trainer/rider Dale Peters.
17:25
Repeat Business @ 5/1 has been very impressive in his runs so far for trainer Jonathan Tudor. The gelding showed little under rules but has won his last three outings between the flags by an aggregate of thirty lengths, including last time out when justifying odds-on favouritism to make a successful Open race debut at Llanvapley. Regular pilot James Tudor is again in the plate here and he can have too much for the enigmatic Mr Mercurial and Legal Legend, both favoured in the market here on the basis of previous Hunter Chase successes.
Raffa has some solid outings in Open company to his name, he's more exposed than many of these but is no 33/1 chance in my opinion.
Sam Cavallaro @ 15/2 has been rejuvenated by the switch to Heidi Brookshaw’s Shropshire yard in the Spring. The ex-David Christie-trained gelding had some solid form in Ireland but was always finding the three mile trip and soft ground against him. His run behind Pacha Du Polder at Ludlow sets the standard form wise and his recent success in a three runner point augurs well for his chances here with the excellent David Noonan booked to ride.
At a bigger price Realt Ag Leimt @ 25/1 should go well here. A winner over three miles in this grade at Huntingdon last year he ran well for a long way prior to weakening out of it after the last over two and a half miles at Southwell recently and provided he handles the drop back in trip ok he could go well for trainer/rider Dale Peters.
17:25
Repeat Business @ 5/1 has been very impressive in his runs so far for trainer Jonathan Tudor. The gelding showed little under rules but has won his last three outings between the flags by an aggregate of thirty lengths, including last time out when justifying odds-on favouritism to make a successful Open race debut at Llanvapley. Regular pilot James Tudor is again in the plate here and he can have too much for the enigmatic Mr Mercurial and Legal Legend, both favoured in the market here on the basis of previous Hunter Chase successes.
Raffa has some solid outings in Open company to his name, he's more exposed than many of these but is no 33/1 chance in my opinion.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
17:55
Front two have doubts about them - FD would ideally prefer more rain and Harbour Court has looked a bit of a dog. Wouldn't rule out Midnight King who ran well last time out or Credit Crunched who looks a horse on the up.
18:30
Quinz @ 4/1 has looked a useful type since switching to points this season and while he struggled in the Foxhunters the change in running style probably didn’t suit him there. He was impressive at Godstone and with doubts surrounding the favourite Moroman on this track he is taken to score in this.
There was plenty of money around last night for Temple Grandin but he would prefer the ground much, much softer and had only a five length margin over today’s rival Rosies Peacock when the pair met at Chaddesley Corbett in December. Rosies Peacock (20/1) has been in grand form since and looks a lively outsider in this contest.
Front two have doubts about them - FD would ideally prefer more rain and Harbour Court has looked a bit of a dog. Wouldn't rule out Midnight King who ran well last time out or Credit Crunched who looks a horse on the up.
18:30
Quinz @ 4/1 has looked a useful type since switching to points this season and while he struggled in the Foxhunters the change in running style probably didn’t suit him there. He was impressive at Godstone and with doubts surrounding the favourite Moroman on this track he is taken to score in this.
There was plenty of money around last night for Temple Grandin but he would prefer the ground much, much softer and had only a five length margin over today’s rival Rosies Peacock when the pair met at Chaddesley Corbett in December. Rosies Peacock (20/1) has been in grand form since and looks a lively outsider in this contest.
Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
19:05
This looks a competitive little race and on all known form the race should be fought out between the front two in the betting with preference for Chosen Milan given her previous outings at this track. She’s been in decent form this season and while she fell on her most recent outing she can get the better of our alternative here Executive Benefit who disappointed on her debut in this sphere at Taunton but has since racked up a sequence of wins, including in a two runner Wetherby Hunter Chase and multiple points.
This looks a competitive little race and on all known form the race should be fought out between the front two in the betting with preference for Chosen Milan given her previous outings at this track. She’s been in decent form this season and while she fell on her most recent outing she can get the better of our alternative here Executive Benefit who disappointed on her debut in this sphere at Taunton but has since racked up a sequence of wins, including in a two runner Wetherby Hunter Chase and multiple points.