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SlimChance
Guest
Another Guineas that needs to be rated as two separate races? Was the far side inconvenienced by a lack of pace?
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The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas
- Thread starter Bar the Bull
- Start date
Another Guineas that needs to be rated as two separate races? Was the far side inconvenienced by a lack of pace?
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Just my view, but both outsiders were probably favoured by the pace on that side, where Abtaal possibly went too quickly for his own good.
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SlimChance
Guest
Without wishing to seem churlish, I thought he layed a long way out of his ground, considering the soft surface, and gave the horse more to do than necessary.
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SlimChance
Guest
The horse has been ridden for a turn of foot now on all three occasions. Hard to fault it given he was pulling away inside the final furlong.
Harbinger
At the Start
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- Mar 22, 2004
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- 11,282
Yeah, I'm trying to figure out whether Hermival ran really well on softer ground than the first two home, or was flattered by having a more suitable pace to race against.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The last Guineas winner not to win over less than a mile as a 2yo was Dancing Brave. He's gone against a few stats there alright.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Abtaal was pretty much used as his pacemaker. One of those races where Sheikh Hamdan no doubt muses over the fact that he's never replaced Bill Carson properly.
Ker-ching!
A nice looking colt has won the Guineas. Managed to get the forecast (albeit the wrong way round), with the stamina horse (no doubt some stamina was needed today) beating the natural miler.
Lost on place bets on Abtaal and Born To Sea.
Camelot ran the fastest second, third and fourth quarters of the Guineas giving the lie to the myth that the right progeny type of Montjeu can’t win Group 1s/Classics at a mile at three and older.
Didn’t make it to the track, but I’m having a good day!
A nice looking colt has won the Guineas. Managed to get the forecast (albeit the wrong way round), with the stamina horse (no doubt some stamina was needed today) beating the natural miler.
Lost on place bets on Abtaal and Born To Sea.
Camelot ran the fastest second, third and fourth quarters of the Guineas giving the lie to the myth that the right progeny type of Montjeu can’t win Group 1s/Classics at a mile at three and older.
Didn’t make it to the track, but I’m having a good day!
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SlimChance
Guest
Ker-ching!
Didn’t make it to the track, but I’m having a good day!
If there is anyone you know on course will you ask them to give a look for Power. Horse missing on the Rowley mile.
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trackside528
At the Start
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- Apr 30, 2006
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- 5,377
Interesting to compare the sectionals with the 9f handicap. The final two furlongs of the Guineas were run at 99.7% of the overall race speed; the final two furlongs of the handicap at 97.2%.
Difficult to infer much from two races (especially given the undulating nature of the last quarter mile at Newmarket), but it would at least seem to suggest that the Guineas certainly wasn't a burn-up by any means.
Difficult to infer much from two races (especially given the undulating nature of the last quarter mile at Newmarket), but it would at least seem to suggest that the Guineas certainly wasn't a burn-up by any means.
davidjohnson
At the Start
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- Jun 29, 2007
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Agree trackside, the timefigure is likely to be about a stone or so below the form rating.
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
Very impressive and a great ride, can't see him being beaten at Epsom.
I would have won my bet with you though about him finishing in the first 17... the supplemented Talwar finished behind him.edgt
Senior Jockey
What also impressed me was how long it took Camelot to pull up. Anyone willing to take a share in an unraced horse provisionally named Camalittle? Hope Weatherbys give me the ok .
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Agreed. The only very small crumb of comfort I had today. Three minutes before the off:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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When I get round to rating the form, I'll be treating it as three separate races.
I think Hughes went too fast on Trumpet Major in the belief he could set a pace that would offset the stalls disadvantage of the near side. The first two came from pretty much the last three places on that side at halfway. That doesn't happen off a moderate pace.
I think Hughes went too fast on Trumpet Major in the belief he could set a pace that would offset the stalls disadvantage of the near side. The first two came from pretty much the last three places on that side at halfway. That doesn't happen off a moderate pace.
It was slightly better on the far side than the stands side and the centre as you will see from the link and as I've been labouring, which makes the performance of Camelot and French Fifteen all the more meritorious.
http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=newmarket
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You should have won then! ...I did too on FF. Also backed Camelot though.
Thought FF ran a blinder, but expected him to.Extract:
French pretender threatens to undo classy Camelot
...Camelot was unbeaten in his two starts last term, taking the Racing Post Trophy in eye-catching style, giving his sire Montjeu his fourth success in the race. Despite showing eight stamina points in his Dosage profile he also has sharper influences with Kingmambo as his dam sire and is the sort of horse that could do very well here. He can also be expected to progress at middle distances and given the likely going it may take a horse that truly gets further than a mile to take this. Connections of Camelot (i.e. Coolmore) will be eager to win a Classic/Group 1 over a mile with a son of Montjeu (following the stallion’s death at the end of March this year).
...The Nicolas Clement-trained French Fifteen, winner of the Group 1 Criterium International at Saint Cloud last term, advertised his claims for the Guineas by landing the Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte on his reappearance at the beginning of April, by a neck from Abtaal. The Turtle Bowl colt should appreciate the likely going and his Dosage reading is close to where it should be for victory here.
Summary
Power comes into it with solid credentials, but it will be difficult to exclude his stablemate Camelot from a strong say in events, despite looking more of a middle distance type. The French colts, French Fifteen and Abtaal and the Irish-trained Born To Sea look promising milers and should be better suited to eight furlongs than the favourite in normal conditions, with preference for French Fifteen who may be value to topple the short-priced favourite.
Verdict:
1) French Fifteen
2) Camelot
3) Born To Sea