The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

SteveM said:
Great average price on Camelot. Did you back him before the Racing Post Trophy? If so well done. He should be fine for the trip in the Derby, but there are Montjeu's with greater potential stamina than this one. Nevertheless, it would be great to see him go for the Triple Crown (although he's not the 3/1 chance they're quoting). We were denied the chance to see another Nijinsky with Nashwan and Sea The Stars of course.
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The Triple Crown is a dead letter. It will never be won again, unless it's by a horse not good enough to go for the Arc.
 
Grey said:
The Triple Crown is a dead letter. It will never be won again, unless it's by a horse not good enough to go for the Arc.
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Boylesports were quoting 8/1 in their shops Friday. I was embarrassed for them.
 
They reckon Trumpet Major was found out a bit by the soft going and probably ran a few pounds below what was expected although he had definitely come on for his last run - I'd rate the race around TM running to an O/R 115 but I don't know how to rate flat races.
 
Harbour Watch was supposed to be way ahead of Trumpet Major. Are we likey to see him at Ascot?
 
Zenyatta said:
I was a little disappointed at the time but I have watched the replay and have completely changed my view. I was really impressed. The fact that he won when he looks sure to be suited by further was good but the way that he did it was exceptional. He was ridden like a very good horse being dropped out and that showed they had a lot of confidence in the horse's ability. He didn't ride him like a stayer and didn't need to.
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He rode him like a horse that would show the same acceleration on soft ground that he had on fast - despite his father's expressed reservations about the horse's action before the race. The horse got him out of jail.

Timeform rate him an ordinary Guineas winner, and under the circumstances he was probably no more than that; so was Sea The Stars at the time, on much more suitable ground.
He will improve no end for better ground and a longer trip, and looks to have the perfect conformation for Epsom, so, while it's too early to award him the Derby just yet, it's difficult to see too many getting near him.
Imo, natch.
 
reet hard said:
The horse got him out of jail.
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For the time being, I'm working on the assumption the way the race panned out got him out of jail. You could argue the case that it was a good bit of pace judgment to hold the horse up off an overfast gallop but he'd stated his intention beforehand not to be seen until after halfway so presumably he'd have held him up regardless.

Had they gone a shade easier up front he might have found the others not slowing up as much as they did.
 
swedish chef said:
They reckon Trumpet Major was found out a bit by the soft going and probably ran a few pounds below what was expected although he had definitely come on for his last run - I'd rate the race around TM running to an O/R 115 but I don't know how to rate flat races.
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On the OR scale its around 2lbs per length over a mile. So a 3 3/4 length beating of a 115 horse would equate to a rating of 123 (rounded up).
 
Everything that happend in the race sort of backed up the general view of it beforehand: That is was tricky to assess and whatever you were backing you could be taking your life in your own hands.

I have to say (and I'll probably be shot down in flames for saying it), My feeling after watching it was Camelot has so much (too much?) raw speed for an Epsom Derby.

Yes Sea The Stars won both but he was in touch with the pace in his Guineas and certainly didn't show the same turn of foot Camelot did yesterday.

You need the right combination of speed and stamina to be a derby horse: I'm sure he'll get 10F easy but anything could happen at Epsom. It's less of a precise science in terms of the Guineas, in the way it can turn out to be a messy race these days.

Big Mac needs sectioning for talking about the triple Crown.

To me, as long as there's a horse in training called Frankel, that is the scalpel you want to take if you own Camelot.
 
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SlimChance said:
Harbour Watch was supposed to be way ahead of Trumpet Major. Are we likey to see him at Ascot?
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Harbour Watch was always considered the new Canford Cliffs - but I don't know his situation to be honest, except he was having a few problems over the winter. I hope he gets back on track.
 
Desert Orchid said:
For the time being, I'm working on the assumption the way the race panned out got him out of jail. You could argue the case that it was a good bit of pace judgment to hold the horse up off an overfast gallop but he'd stated his intention beforehand not to be seen until after halfway so presumably he'd have held him up regardless.

Had they gone a shade easier up front he might have found the others not slowing up as much as they did.
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Yes, no doubt he would have held him up regardless, but not as far back. The fast early pace strung them out, if it had been slower he could have laid up a bit closer
 
Grey said:
The fast early pace strung them out, if it had been slower he could have laid up a bit closer
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... thereby using up more energy and having less in the tank for the final kick while others would have had more to offer since they wouldn't have overtaxed themselves earlier.

I suspect time might show French Fifteen to be the best miler in the field but it's always great when potential superstars keep the momentum going.

It would sadden me a wee bit if the rest of the 3yos proved to be a moderate bunch, which is what some seem to be suggesting.
 
Camelot was sat next last, and not even asked a question until approaching the 2 pole. Had he made his move when travelling comfortable earlier, he would have had less ground to make up, and been asked fewer questions, than was the case subsequently.
Even French Fifteen, who had the speed to win over 5 & 6f as a juvenile, made his move sooner.
 
I don't think we're much wiser after that. Camelot is a bit special but he won on soft ground where the front runners went too fast.
I still think the best milers this year are french.
Trumpet major will win a Grp 1 over a mile on fast ground when the aforementioned french are absent.
 
Grey said:
Why, if he was letting the horse go its own pace?
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Your argument only holds water if you believe a slower pace would have allowed Camelot to be closer while running at the same pace as he actually did. I'm not convinced that's what would have unfolded.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Your argument only holds water if you believe a slower pace would have allowed Camelot to be closer while running at the same pace as he actually did. I'm not convinced that's what would have unfolded.
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I don't have an argument of my own yet, I'm more interested in trying to understand yours.

I would have thought that if a horse is let go at its own pace in a slowly run race it would be closer to the leaders than in a fast run one. Are you suggesting that if a horse is allowed to doss it will sit just as far off the lead in both types of race?
 
Colin Phillips said:
Reet, I sense that you don't feel Joseph gave the winner a great ride.;)
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:lol: Just don't buy into this "great ride" bollix every time someone rides a winner, Col. He ain't a bad jockey, just far from the finished article some would have us believe.
When someone is on what's clearly the best horse in the race, and makes such hard work of it, something is wrong somewhere, and I think I've made my view pretty clear of where the fault lay.
 
Grey said:
I don't have an argument of my own yet, I'm more interested in trying to understand yours.

I would have thought that if a horse is let go at its own pace in a slowly run race it would be closer to the leaders than in a fast run one. Are you suggesting that if a horse is allowed to doss it will sit just as far off the lead in both types of race?
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My argument is simply that humans and and animals have a finite amount of energy. If you use up more energy laying up to the pace you'll have less at the business end. If the pace had been slower others would have had more for the business end but they clearly didn't. It doesn't mean Camelot wouldn't have won but they wouldn't have been as strung out at the end.
 
reet hard said:
:lol: Just don't buy into this "great ride" bollix every time someone rides a winner, Col. He ain't a bad jockey, just far from the finished article some would have us believe.
When someone is on what's clearly the best horse in the race, and makes such hard work of it, something is wrong somewhere, and I think I've made my view pretty clear of where the fault lay.
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If you want to criticise a jockey's performance, have a close look at 'Dazzler' Holland on Local Hero in the first.

(Yes, I'm talking through a hole in my pocket. I had my biggest single bet for over a year on the horse and to say I'm not pleased is like saying Subo isn't Miss World material.)
 
Desert Orchid said:
If you want to criticise a jockey's performance, have a close look at 'Dazzler' Holland on Local Hero in the first.

(Yes, I'm talking through a hole in my pocket. I had my biggest single bet for over a year on the horse and to say I'm not pleased is like saying Subo isn't Miss World material.)
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Takes a very bold person to have the single biggest bet in a year on anything the "Dazzler" is riding. I still feel the pain all those years later when I think of him on Falbrav in the Irish Champion Stakes.
 
brendanr said:
Takes a very bold person to have the single biggest bet in a year on anything the "Dazzler" is riding. I still feel the pain all those years later when I think of him on Falbrav in the Irish Champion Stakes.
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The thought did fleet through my mind very briefly before I decided to go ahead but I decided if the horse won and I had chickened out of it I'd have kicked myself sensible.
 
reet hard said:
Nothing against him personally but, not for the first time, today he showed a poor judgement of pace,
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I think that you're being harsh on him Reet, over the last year he has made very few errors pace wise. Prior to that yes, but it has to be remembered how young he still is.

I thought that it was a top class ride.
 
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