The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

Just finished work. The first bet I saw at 12/1 was a monkey e/w cash. It looks like Canelot is a certain runner but can an impressive Dante winner go off 12/1 in a Guineas? I doubt it.
 
Of course if you were to play devils advocate, what price would Most Approved be if he had beaten him a neck today? 2/1? 5/2?
 
Bronterre looks worth an interest before the Greenham. Best price 33/1/ 38.0 betfair. He's up against Top Offer and 5 other opponents, but a win would surely see his price contract.

He beat stable mate Trumpet Major in the Dewhurst when last seen and although beaten by three other 2000gns contenders, he didn't really have an ideal run.

He does need to prove how much improvement he's made over the winter, but he could be 8/1, with a decent run.
 
Going will be the key. While there was little or no rain through feb and march there appears to be plenty now. With the mile classics going as late as they possibly can there is a good chance that fine weather will prevail. The next full moon is may 6th so weather may not change before then so beware ante post on fast ground types!!!
 
If the Dewhurst is the key, is Power not the bet?
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I couldn't put anyone of Power. I posted a month ago that O'Briens record in this is decent but, it tends to be the 2nd string horse that are profitable, so Power or Nephrite would be of interest.

Power is going straight to the 2000, so will only contract with withdrawals of the market leaders (or hype), but Bronterre's price could collapse on Sat. Perfect situation would be to trade back the stake at 8.0 after the race.

He's had one winning fav from seven in recent years , with Nicks Abbey, Rip Van and Hawk Wing, turned over at short prices. Similar to the Hannon problem, it really is a tough call to call the pecking order at this time of year, especially with a stable full of high quality horses.

My point re Bronterre was simply taking a price before Saturdays race. I do think Hannon, the 2yo king, has made significant changes to they way he prepares his top class 3yo's nowadays, although it may be totally accidental.

He managed a 2nd last year @ 33/1 and 2nd and 3rd the previous year, at prices of 33,16,12/1. Obviously weakened by Harbour Watch not taking part, I still think his runners will play a part.

I probably got my ante post book wrong with bets on Coupe De Ville @ 110 and Bronterre @ 25/1, along with the two Oxx runners.

I'm against Camelot. He has been a talking horse and beat everything with ease, but there really wasn't much to beat in the Racing Post Trophy, with only two English challengers and the hype doesn't really add up to the time.Gusto who is down the pecking in the Hannon yard and around a stone below Camelot ran a faster time pro rata, carrying a 1lb more. They were achieved in differing manners, but the fact remains it wasn't a great time and he really only did what we expected.
 
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doomster said:
Gusto who is down the pecking in the Hannon yard and around a stone below Camelot ran a faster time pro rata, carrying a 1lb more. They were achieved in differing manners, but the fact remains it wasn't a great time and he really only did what we expected.
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I don't think you can criticise a horse for not running a fast time if they haven't had the opportunity to. As Phil Bull once famously said, 'a speedfigure will tell you how bad a horse isn't rather than how good he is'.
 
I don't think you can criticise a horse for not running a fast time if they haven't had the opportunity to. As Phil Bull once famously said, 'a speedfigure will tell you how bad a horse isn't rather than how good he is'.
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It was really the hype of that run I was referring to. He was impressive, but I simply think there was an over reaction to that performance if you look at it. A lot of judges seem to be factoring in how much he had left, but hen was pushed out.
It's the price relative to that performance, I don't get.

Gusto has done the form no harm as he won on his 3yo debut
 
Ladbrokes aren't taking any chances, they've shortened Camelot for both the Guineas and the Derby following the various efforts seen at Newmarket.
 
SteveM said:
Should be an easy enough reappearance for him though if all they want to do is give him a preparatory airing.
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I can't think of too may of theirs that have used the Loughbrown as a stepping stone to the Guineas in recent years. I may be wrong, but possibly more of an Irish Guineas prep?
 
I think Tomahawk is the only one who went to Newmarket. Plenty have gone to the Poulains and/or Irish Guineas though.
 
Also worth noting that Nephrite suffered a 'non-runner-esque' drift on Betfair last night. Perhaps they are thinking French/Irish for him instead.

And, together with Ladbrokes shortening Camelot into 6/4, has the decision been made?
 
Zenyatta said:
Also worth noting that Nephrite suffered a 'non-runner-esque' drift on Betfair last night. Perhaps they are thinking French/Irish for him instead.

And, together with Ladbrokes shortening Camelot into 6/4, has the decision been made?
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That's very likely, but this has always been the likeliest outcome. If they win the Guineas with Camelot many things are achieved while the season is barely under way.
 
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