The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas

I don't think you should be allowed to run in a Classic unless you've had at least three outings. This thing could well win an ordinary Guineas if he's good enough but how is a punter to assess this.
 
Trumpet Major represents the best bet for the Guineas though at 12s. Proven on the track, proven he's trained on and will be bang ready for the day with question marks over the front three in the betting.
 
Ghanaati only had two Kempton runs to her name and she was decent enough.

I get the feeling Charlton doesn't want to go straight to the Guineas reading between the lines but he feels pressured by the hype surrounding the horse.

You'd have to be on drugs to be backing Top Offer or Most Improved at their current prices given their preparations.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Trumpet Major represents the best bet for the Guineas though at 12s. Proven on the track, proven he's trained on and will be bang ready for the day with question marks over the front three in the betting.
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I'm warming to his chances, although I'd like to think there were at least one or two a bit more special lurking in there.
 
Bronterre looks worth an interest before the Greenham. Best price 33/1/ 38.0 betfair. He's up against Top Offer and 5 other opponents, but a win would surely see his price contract.
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Even with significant n/r's in the Greenham, his lay price for the 2000 is 21.0. Option of a free bet @ 17.0, or lock in a 4/5 winner guaranteed.

Logic says his price won't contract further if he wins today, but I bet it does.
 
Bronterre was disappointing, pulled much too hard for his own good, as did the filly in the earlier race, who will surely now revert to sprinting.
 
I actually think that's why the market has three very underpriced horses heading it, people WANT to see the new Frankel and Sea The Stars when in reality, that probably isn't going to happen.

Horses like Trumpet Major and French Fifteen don't have flashy unexposed lightly raced profiles but it doesn't mean they aren't good enough to win a Guineas, especially a weaker than average one.
 
The morale of the story now is that Camelot and Nephrite will both run. What price should they both be on the day assuming that's correct?
 
Gamla Stan said:
I actually think that's why the market has three very underpriced horses heading it, people WANT to see the new Frankel and Sea The Stars when in reality, that probably isn't going to happen.

Horses like Trumpet Major and French Fifteen don't have flashy unexposed lightly raced profiles but it doesn't mean they aren't good enough to win a Guineas, especially a weaker than average one.
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There is a lot to be said for this view and Camelot aside I'd be inclined to agree. However, I'd still be disappointed if there are not one or two more to get the better of TM.
 
SlimChance said:
The morale of the story now is that Camelot and Nephrite will both run. What price should they both be on the day assuming that's correct?
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I’m a Camelot supporter at 3/1 but at 6/4 he’s too short. And yet if there is still a doubt about his participation in the price he could go even shorter.

I’ve not seen too much to worry about from the exposed participants, so if there are dangers I think they'll come from the less exposed headed by the likes of Tales Of Grimm.

We’ll see how Nephrite fares Sunday, but at the moment he’s no better than a bunch of them for me. It would be worrying if he did anything other than win later today. I’ve no idea what price he should be at the moment or even if he’s defintely intended for the Guineas. He seems to me okay but probably no better than the two Gamla Stan mentions (TM and FF), for example.
 
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TM looked over weight and seemed to hate the ground and still won comfortably. I think he'll finish in front of Camelot and what ever beats him will win. Talk of a weak Guineas is premature.
 
Sheikh said:
TM looked over weight and seemed to hate the ground and still won comfortably. I think he'll finish in front of Camelot and what ever beats him will win. Talk of a weak Guineas is premature.
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Can't ever remember a Guineas weak enough to be won by a horse beaten 5 times as a 2yo?
 
Or is the Dewhurst form not what some are assuming it to be? They still finished in too much of a heap for me in the race. I cant help thinking that the guineas is going to go to something unexposed.
 
Generous was beaten in 3 races as a 2yo and was one of the best Derby winners in the last 25 years.


Trumpet Major looked a good horse in the Craven in his 2yo form could be better than most people thought at first sight.

Cirrus is another with a bad pedigree in a small stable beaten many times at the beginning of his career and now is the second best horse in europe.
 
SteveM said:
I’m a Camelot supporter at 3/1 but at 6/4 he’s too short. And yet if there is still a doubt about his participation in the price he could go even shorter.

I’ve not seen too much to worry about from the exposed participants, so if there are dangers I think they'll come from the less exposed headed by the likes of Tales Of Grimm.

We’ll see how Nephrite fares Sunday, but at the moment he’s no better than a bunch of them for me. It would be worrying if he did anything other than win later today. I’ve no idea what price he should be at the moment or even if he’s defintely intended for the Guineas. He seems to me okay but probably no better than the two Gamla Stan mentions (TM and FF), for example.
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6/4 is a horrible price for Camelot but 3/1 is not much better. 6/1-10/1 would be more like it in my book. What type of evidence are you going on with this horse because what he has shown on track doesn't come within a New York mile of winning this race. This has St. Nick Abbey Pt. 2 written all over it.
 
Camelot showed more speed than SNA ever had; off a slow pace and on fastish ground he had the RPT easily put to bed fully 2 from home.
The majority of those he beat (out of sight) haven't run since, one the comfortable winner of a minor listed, the only other much closer to French Fifteen (himself a best priced 12/1).
Maybe those bandying the fancy prices about Camelot ought to start talking with their wallets?
 
Reet you can be annoying at the best of times but best not to talk about wallets et.al. as you have no clue how much I for example put into these things but rest assured if he is close to 6/4 on the day I'll be hitting the lay button to amounts that would make you pass out.
 
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