Conduit was a real money spinner for me, those type of overrated slow boats usually are.
The Road to the 2012 2000 Guineas
- Thread starter Bar the Bull
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Conduit was a real money spinner for me, those type of overrated slow boats usually are.
Speaking of Conduit what you have been lapping up from Sir Michael lately.
EC1
On a break
I think if you look back on the forum we had exactly the same last year..oooh SNA isn't yer ordinary staying RPT winner..oooh he's got loads of speed off that slow pace in the RPT
RPT winners don't win Guineas as they haven't got speed for it..RPT is a mile and half pointer race..always has been
12/1 isn't a fancy price..its what i see as correct
you must be balls deep on Camelot i assume..best of luck with it me old..you will need it
Every horse he beat in his maiden has had at least one start with the most being four!!!. The highest rated of those the 80 rated Canary Wharf finally won a Wolverhampton maiden in January by a sht hd. All the others are still looking for that elusive first win. Zip Top who was 2nd in the RP was destroyed by Crius (3,5 lengths) and Fire Lily by 20 lengths with four others between him and the winner before that. Fencing, Telwar and, Learn are good 3yo's in a large 3yo population no more no less. There are many I would rate higher than those.
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Aye, as a " very fortunate winner" of his first Breeder's Cup, you must have made a mint laying him for his second.:lol:
EC
I'm aware of the merit of the RP Trophy as a Derby Pointer, but I'm also aware that it's usually an attritional race run on late season ground. Last year's was different.
I rarely back ante-post, and wouldn't dream of betting Camelot for the Guineas until I know the field and the ground.
Having said that, he looks much the likeliest winner at this stage, and 6/4 on the day might be finding money in the street.
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Reet; in contrast to you I am never very dogmatic about anything in this sport. That Breeders Cup Turf was weak that year and considering that the US tote odds on Conduit were almost 3/1 I availed myself of that price in no uncertain measure. Then I had to sweat it out as that slow boat had to get the royal treatment form Mr. Moore to beat an american rag on the line.
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EC1
On a break
i just can't have it Reet..good luck an all that but not for me
yes i know you have to take them as individuals but it is very similar to SNA and history of RPT sways me well away from this profile of horse for the guineas
it might be that Camelot is the next super horse..but % call he isn't
Harbinger
At the Start
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RP reports that Stoute isn't too keen on running Tales of Grimm having missed his prep.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
By backing other horses in the race that's what we're doing surely.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...g/12/04/22/RACING_Guineas_OBrien.html&BID=465
Power is the dark horse for me. They are being very quiet about him and I would not be surprised if there was a plunge for him at some point over the next two weeks or even on the day.
Power is the dark horse for me. They are being very quiet about him and I would not be surprised if there was a plunge for him at some point over the next two weeks or even on the day.
Gamla Stan
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Into evens now with Ladbrokes which is just ridiculous. Fully justified favourite given the doubt over the next three in the betting but far far too short. He's a 7/2 chance at best.
Going to get stuck into French Fifteen and Trumpet Major more and more as the day gets closer. Already backed TM and Abtaal but can't understand how Abtaal is now shorter than FF.
Going to get stuck into French Fifteen and Trumpet Major more and more as the day gets closer. Already backed TM and Abtaal but can't understand how Abtaal is now shorter than FF.
jft2005
Conditional
I fell 14-1 about Power is a good price. I can see Ryan Moore riding Power. He will be no 14-1 shot on the day.
Profile is not dissimilar to Henry the Navigator and he's a similar price heading into the guineas. On paper he's the likelier guineas type and with this stable the second strings have plenty of success.
Re: Abtaal - I'm pleased to see the price contract. Given my position and the prices I've taken I should be able to lay off some of my stake and minimise my risk given he's still not a definite starter.
Re: Abtaal - I'm pleased to see the price contract. Given my position and the prices I've taken I should be able to lay off some of my stake and minimise my risk given he's still not a definite starter.
We must of course remind ourselves that St Nicholas Abbey is another horse. He wasn’t ready for the Guineas and O’Brien has admitted to pushing him into the race. They won’t want to do this again. Reports suggest Camelot is further forward at this stage, he looked very good at Doncaster and the Guineas trials this term have not appeared anything special.
I’ve averaged a little above 3/1 on Camelot and at that price am all over him. I won’t go shorter as I reckon two or three others should be much shorter than they are and I’ve got time to cover myself with these if necessary.
Power quoted at 14's with Ladbrokes. Maybe they know something and Power isn't up to much.
EC1
On a break
He might have looked good at Donny but he doesn't really show any superior time in that and the horses he beat weren't up to much. Started life in what can now only be called a poor mile maiden and then went to the racing post trophy where the level of competition doesn't look so hot now either.. As EC1 has stated hardly the profile of a guineas winner
I've just gone thru the list of winners of the RP since 1990 and the two winners that stand out by a long way are Motivator and High Chaparral, hardly Guineas material. King's Theatre another winner and a very good horse won his Craven and was then thrashed in the Guineas. Celtic Swing came closest but even at 4/5 he could not take it. I'm sure if I looked to see how many of the others ran in the Guineas there would be quite a bit of deadwood.
As you say we must of course remind ourselves that none of these was Camelot. Just hope that's not your only argument, as I have not seen anything else or I plain missed it.
Like I say I'll be betting against him at current odds from a choice of two or three I've sorted out that should be better suited to a mile and have longer prices than chances. I am not putting Camelot up as the most obvious of milers, but at 3/1 (as I said at the beginning of this thread) I believe he may prove good enough as I believe he is a superior individual to his more exposed rivals. However some of the unexposed Guineas hopefuls interest me more this year.