The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

LUKE said:
Unbeaten with Ruby riding him.The Bula could be the race for him.
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From the Racing Post yesterday, RoR looks to be heading for the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton over 2 miles. To me this implies the Champion Hurdle’s possible, so have taken a little of the available 20/1

I thought Zarkander would have been aimed at the Xmas race, which got me thinking about where he’ll go now. Anyone heard anything?
 
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Surprised that we will not be seeing Zarkandar until the New Year. On the bare figures he has a bit to find but the form of his Triumph win is working out well enough with both Brampour and Grandouet now rated 8 and 13lb superior to him respectively.

Both Brampour and Rock On Ruby have made ripples in the Champion market and yet Nicholls still appears certain that Zarkandar is his best chance. Unbeaten and sure to still be improving plus the benefit of a breathing operation and it is easy to see why.

That said, his form might look a whole lot weaker if neither Grandouet or Brampour figure in the International this weekend, or a whole lot stronger if they both run well.
 
Perpetual said:
From the Racing Post yesterday, RoR looks to be heading for the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton over 2 miles. To me this implies the Champion Hurdle’s possible, so have taken a little of the available 20/1

I thought Zarkander would have been aimed at the Xmas race, which got me thinking about where he’ll go now. Anyone heard anything?
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Christmas Hurdle is a shocking pointer towards winning a CH though..another strike off the list for me whatever wins it

since 1988..

xmas hurdle winner/CH place

2011 Binocular/ NR..wouldn't have won though
2009 Go Native/LOST 11/4
2008 Harchibald/LOST 33/1
2007 Straw Bear/LOST 20/1
2006 Jazz Messenger/NR
2004 Harchibald/LOST 7/1
2003 Intersky Falcon/LOST 8/1
2002 Intersky Falcon/LOST 5/1
2001 Landing Light/NR
2000 no CH 2001
1999 Dato Star/LOST 9/1
1998 French Holly/LOST 11/2
1997 Kerawi/LOST 25/1
1994 Absoloms Lady/LOST 33/1
1993 Muse/LOST 13/2
1992 Mighty Mogul/NR
1991 Gran Alba/NR
1990 Fidway/LOST 15/2
1989 Kribensis/WON 9/4
1988 Kribensis/LOST 11/8
 
Zenyatta said:
Surprised that we will not be seeing Zarkandar until the New Year. On the bare figures he has a bit to find but the form of his Triumph win is working out well enough with both Brampour and Grandouet now rated 8 and 13lb superior to him respectively.

Both Brampour and Rock On Ruby have made ripples in the Champion market and yet Nicholls still appears certain that Zarkandar is his best chance. Unbeaten and sure to still be improving plus the benefit of a breathing operation and it is easy to see why.

That said, his form might look a whole lot weaker if neither Grandouet or Brampour figure in the International this weekend, or a whole lot stronger if they both run well.
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I ain't buying the juvenile form....yet.

Whilst Grandouet would likely have beaten Celestial Halo at Wincanton, he was receiving 8lbs, and would - at best, in my view - have run to a mark in the early-150's. He was impressive in his next outing, but again, it's only Marsh Warbler he's sauntered clear of (and that one's OR is far too high) so he's probably run to a comfortable early-150's second time out.

I'd agree that there is likely more to come from Granouet, but he will still need to find an unsual amount of improvement - beyond that which he has already achieved - before he can be considered a genuine Champion Hurdle candidate (assuming Hurricane Fly participates).

Brampour's win in the Greatwood is hard to crab, but the race was an unusually weak affair for me, and I don't think he has had to run to a great deal more than his 149 rating going into the race, in order to win. A rise to 159 looks extremely harsh, will prove hard to justify imo, and leaves him even further short of what will be needed to win a Champion Hurdle.

I'd be prepared to adjust my view of the form depending on what Zarkander does whenever he reappears, but will remain a little cautious for the time being. They've looked impressive, but I honestly feel that the races Grandouet and Brampour won, might not have taken a great deal of winning.

Regardless, I could be 10lbs out in my judgement of these horses, and an on-form Hurricane Fly would still finish in front of them. They all have a mountain to climb.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Regardless, I could be 10lbs out in my judgement of these horses, and an on-form Hurricane Fly would still finish in front of them. They all have a mountain to climb.
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Couldn't agree more about the mountain to climb. And if they manage to get above Hurricane fly, they'll have even further to climb to get close to Spirit Son... :cool:
 
Hamm said:
Couldn't agree more about the mountain to climb. And if they manage to get above Hurricane fly, they'll have even further to climb to get close to Spirit Son... :cool:
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Enough of your jibber-jabber........
 
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Grasshopper, I couldn't agree more.

I just think it telling that Nicholls is still very confident that Zarkandar is his best Champion Hurdle prospect, in spite of the exploits of Brampour and Rock On Ruby. That said, if he wasn't Nicholls' best chance then you could safely cross him off the list!

If the Hurricane is there in the same form as last season then he will surely take the world of beating. There is scope for improvement too because he pulled very hard early doors. I suspect a quicker pace, although it might have suited Peddlers Cross, would have suited Hurricane Fly as well. And I say that as a huge fan of Peddlers Cross.
 
EC1 said:
Christmas Hurdle is a shocking pointer towards winning a CH though..another strike off the list for me whatever wins it

since 1988..

xmas hurdle winner/CH place

2011 Binocular/ NR..wouldn't have won though
2009 Go Native/LOST 11/4
2008 Harchibald/LOST 33/1
2007 Straw Bear/LOST 20/1
2006 Jazz Messenger/NR
2004 Harchibald/LOST 7/1
2003 Intersky Falcon/LOST 8/1
2002 Intersky Falcon/LOST 5/1
2001 Landing Light/NR
2000 no CH 2001
1999 Dato Star/LOST 9/1
1998 French Holly/LOST 11/2
1997 Kerawi/LOST 25/1
1994 Absoloms Lady/LOST 33/1
1993 Muse/LOST 13/2
1992 Mighty Mogul/NR
1991 Gran Alba/NR
1990 Fidway/LOST 15/2
1989 Kribensis/WON 9/4
1988 Kribensis/LOST 11/8
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I'm not a stats man, but there have been 3 also runs that have gone onto to win the Champ Hurdle, so maybe it's Xmas Hurdle non-winner/CH Winner...

2001 Hor La Loi/3rd - Won CH
2008 Punjabi/UP (f) - Won CH
2009 Binocular/3rd - Won CH
 
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