The Road To The 2012 Champion Hurdle

Zarkandar's reappearance must be of interest given the way the Triumph form has been boosted, due out in February according to Nicholls.
 
I agree Reet and believe he has little or no chance this year. Even Hurricane Fly at his best is going to find it tougher if the entire brigade turn up fit and well.

The very way Binocular will be ridden will mean a much earlier dash to the line. They learned from the year that Punjabi won it's sensless holding Binocular up and his best chance is to try and skip clear at the top of the hill because if there's one thing he does it's stay.

Then you have Grandouet who seems to have no limit at how fast he cruises through a race and of course Spirit Son who with normal improvement is a huge danger to all.

The Henderon team is so stong the horse's sevices who finished in front of Thousand Stars in no longer required.

I've always had niggling doubts about how good a race it actually was last year. Menorah victory over Cue Card turned out to be grossly overrated by the media and punters alike and with Binocular gone the race lacked real substance. Peddler's Cross of course finished 2nd but recent events put a quaetion mark over how good he really was at 2 miles. The fact his trainer had sent him for the Neptune as a youngster raises the question what is his best trip.

Over and above the Henderson trio we have Paul Nichols who believes he has his best chance ever of winning the race with Zakander backed up by Rock on Ruby.

I thought Unacompanied showed yesterday she has the clear beating of Thousand Stars. Loved the way Townsend used her superior speed at just the right time. You can be sure he quipped "not your day is it?" as he ensured Ruby was going nowhere.

She seemed to tire in the soft ground and Thousand Stars was gaining but on better ground I'd fancy her to confirm that form being a very good x flat horse. She's shown she can handle Cheltenham I could think of worse ew bets for the small punter, Thousand Stars being one of them.
 
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I would expect TS to be running on for a place in the CH. Can someone help me and point out the horses that are going to give HF a hard time?
 
For the hundreth time, Spirit Son. His Aintree win, after only 5 starts, is incredible form and already good enough to win.
 
Tanlic said:
I've always had niggling doubts about how good a race it actually was last year. Menorah victory over Cue Card turned out to be grossly overrated by the media and punters alike and with Binocular gone the race lacked real substance.
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On a line through Cue Card, Spirit Son would be of similar merit to Menorah, which would leave him with about a stone to find to get to Hurricane Fly. On your own reading of the form, Spirit Son has a mountain to climb to before he could be considered "a danger to all".

If you want to drag down the form of the Champion Hurdle by using the Bula, you better be prepared to downgrade the Supreme, because the form of the latter race is largely upheld by the Bula run fue Card, which was by far and away the most relevant trial (insofar as a form-marker is concerned) going into the Festival. :cool:
 
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Hamm said:
For the hundreth time, Spirit Son. His Aintree win, after only 5 starts, is incredible form and already good enough to win.
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:lol:

So, in your view, Spirit Son's form over 20f at Aintree is better form than Hurricane Fly's Champion Hurdle?

:lol::lol::lol:
 
Hamm said:
For the hundreth time, Spirit Son. His Aintree win, after only 5 starts, is incredible form and already good enough to win.
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I'm on the Henderson trio, as I've said, but I'm surprised (only slightly worried) that Spirit Son is currently the biggest priced of the three. I'd agree he probably is already almost good enough and is also the one likely to improve the most. He's currently at the top of my list.
 
SteveM said:
This assumes HF will turn up... I'd be more than a little concerned about that.
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The question was "What will trouble HF?", Steve, so it does indeed assume HF runs.

The suggestion that Sprit Son's Aintree novice form is already good enough to win a Champion Hurdle is a nonsense - let alone one that HF will run in. Grandouet and Binocular both have better form in the book already this season, and in vastly more relevant races too.
 
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Grasshopper said:
The question was "What will trouble HF?", Steve, so it does indeed assume HF runs.

The suggestion that Sprit Son's Aintree novice form is already good enough to win a Champion Hurdle is a nonsense - let alone one that HF will run in. Grandouet and Binocular both have better form in the book already this season, and in vastly more relevant races too.
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The way I’m looking at it is that Binocular and HF are almost identically rated on their Champion Hurdle wins. If they both returned to their best they’d virtually dead-heat. While I think that Binocular on balance is less likely to return to his best I’m still not ruling it out. On the other hand I believe we are more likely to see Binocular line up than HF.

I also believe that SS has the scope to be as good if not better than the pair of them. He oozes Champion class.
 
HF is obviously not having the ideal preperation for a repeat win come next March even if he turns up its a hard task to win a Ch on a debut run not many have done it

on a form matter he did beat 2 horses that would be far better over 20f hes wins in ireland again were consisting of beating the same horse that was also better over 20f

so with a doubt over his preperation, whether he will turn up and his form whilst being good can be crabbed he is not unbeatable.

binocular is not as good as he was dosnt run 2 races alike owes much of his promince in the betting due to the connections that own him and the fact McCoy is riding him

Grandout whilst he did win last time at cheltenham wasnt pulling away at the end of the race you would have to wonder what he would find at the end of a strong race and still appears to some at least being better suited to flat tracks

Barampour is good but not the best in his stable

the 2 to concentrate on in my opinion is zarakander good triumph winner will have rw as jockey and is a flat bred and Spirit son

unnaccompanied has a chance but i dont think she can beat these 2
 
This all makes zero sense....so HF cant be trusted as he's not run yet. How many outings have Spirit Son and Zarkandar had? HF's form is rock solid, he's an improving horse. Mullins could have ran him this week but chose to take his time. Good man. Get the horse right, a nice wee prep in Jan, then business as usual come March.
 
its not the hasnt run that is such a concern its that Mullins himself has commented he has not been happy with him and also withdrawn him from races in which he had planned to run him the december hurdle not being the first.

there has clearly been something worrying his trainer

i would say if any trainer can get a horse to win a ch on his seasonal debut it would be Mullins but its a big ask

his form was good last year and he has improvement in him the horses behind him wont be troubling him thats for sure but its not outstanding just beating horses that are better over further


Sprit son and zarakander are also probably improving horses as well and whilst they havnt run there has been no negative vibes from the stable so its probably for both of them part of the trainers plan admitidy plans which the weather could scupper.
 
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Yet another win today by a horse beaten last season by Zarkandar. I'm hoping that his reappearance - whenever that is - proves he has made even normal improvement, because I think given a good fast pace he is the horse with the best chance of serving it up to The Fly at Cheltenham (assuming the latter is even there to serve it up to).
 
SteveM said:
The way I’m looking at it is that Binocular and HF are almost identically rated on their Champion Hurdle wins. If they both returned to their best they’d virtually dead-heat.
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Couldn't disagree more. Binocular was an average champion hurdler and beat a poor field when he won. McCoy and Hendersons claims to the contrary ("he's never been the same blah blah") are bobbins imo. He's just had to face better rivals since. I don't think Binocular has ever deserved a rating in the 170's. He simply isn;t that good.
 
Aragorn said:
Couldn't disagree more. Binocular was an average champion hurdler and beat a poor field when he won. McCoy and Hendersons claims to the contrary ("he's never been the same blah blah") are bobbins imo. He's just had to face better rivals since. I don't think Binocular has ever deserved a rating in the 170's. He simply isn;t that good.
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He was good the day he won the Champion (and at times before)... on ratings slightly better than HF last time. While I think it more likely HF would come out best with Binocular this time, I'm not at all confident we'll see HF appear. At respective prices I'm happy to be on Henderson's trio (double-digit averages on all three, weighted toward SS) than going near a drifting HF.

I'd want something like 4/1 or 5/1 on HF with a run to change my position.
 
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henderson reports sprit son is to be on schedule he will reappear either ay haydock or sandown

binocular will trevel to leopardstown

granduit to wincanton
 
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