The Road to the 2012 King George

Hamm said:
Cue Card has for me a much more obvious stamina doubt.

No need to repeat your thoughts on RT and stamina.
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what are you basing the stamina doubts on for CC Hamm?..RT is an easy one to dismiss imo

CC he has always looked one paced at 2m..even at Cheltenham..as would a horse a horse that needs 3m+..have you looked at his breeding?...ought to get the national trip;)
 
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i think long run will win this and as a result of a lot of good horses not having the stamina for a gold cup trip or the quality to trouble sprinter sacre we'll see a hugely competitive ryanair chase at the festival.
 
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granger said:
Finian's out now aswell
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Backed him for the race ante-post but pleased he's not running as two runs on heavy might have spoiled him, at least for this season. At 10/1 he's a good price for the Ryanair.

Expect Long Run will win but the Lexus looks the more interesting race now.
 
Hard to believe Long Run has only run once in soft going in the UK and that was 1st time up this season.. If it's really soft it may swing things totally in his favour.

I have a love hate relationship with Cue card used to hate him now I love him but why Tizzerd never gave him a run over a longer trip before sending him here is beyond me. If he doesn't stay it's a total waste as he could have gone somewhere else and picked up a decent prize. I really don't know if he will stay but Tizzard seems confident.

Riverside Theatre I can't have at all. He has finished a lucky second but there's nothing to even make me begin to think he can beat Long Run.

Kauto Staone wouldn't win if he set off now. Would be 40/1 if he were trained in sunny Scotland.

Captain Chris. I still think he will get the trip, he'll go on the ground and is the main danger to Long Run. Drifting in the market the bigger the price the happier I'll be.

Champion Court. I couldn't for the life of me understand why Martin Keighly was sending him here but it's been the plan since day 1. It could be down to the owner but it could also be he's improved drastically since last year. He certainly doesn't seem to mind over-facing the horse as he's ran well against some big names. He might just be worth betting in the place market.
 
Im on CC ante post and to be honest in resigned to losing my dough.I just can't see him being ridden conservatively enough.but who knows.
 
Tanlic said:
Hard to believe Long Run has only run once in soft going in the UK and that was 1st time up this season.. If it's really soft it may swing things totally in his favour.
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Someone said that a few days ago on here.:blink:

For a man with Henderson contacts it seems to me like you're looking for every way possible the jolly can get beat mate?!!:)
 
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well the ground will be not far off..ok..lets say very soft..verging heavy...they are saying the meeting is in question so it ain't gonna be much faster..and it seems that people think that will suit LR...has no form on it since coming here from what i can see
 
JamesRB said:
not really that. more that heavy will make this a stamina test against horses who's better form have come on races under 3 miles.
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fair comment

.but there are horses in here who have stamina proven..and such as CC who's breeding suggests 4 miles

it seems that because its now a stamina test proper only LR will be suited...not sure about that...should be odds on then with his 180+ ratings?
 
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I think the point is that he will be less inconvenienced by it.

I fancied Sir Des Champs for this so in his absence I'm struggling with this race. It's difficult to be dogmatic.

Long Run will be in the mix but he's looking more and more one paced and at current odds I couldn't back him; I wouldn't want to place lay him though!

I'm not sure Cue Card will see out the trip, his breeding doesn't give me the confidence others seem to be gathering. I do like him though and if he does get the trip he will be tough to beat.

Not a fan of Captain Chris or Riverside theatre; the latter is an admirable horse but is a specialist 2 1/2 miler and similar comments would apply to Captain Chris with regards to trip.

Kauto Stone looks to have improved this year and his breeding certainly gives hope he might take to Kempton! With Walsh up he has to be a player, my only concern would be is he quite good enough. He ticks every other box.

Champion Court and Hunt Ball look just short of top class. I think there's more to come from the Giant Bolster but I think it will come at Cheltenham.

Grand Crus and For Non Stop are both interesting and I think the winner will come from one of those two, Cue Card, Kauto Stone or possibly Long Run.

If pushed I would narrow it down to Cue Card or Kauto Stone but any bet I have in this is going to be small. Should a very informative race.
 
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EC1 said:
where is the idea that LR wants heavy ground coming from?
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It's not that he wants heavy its the fact he handles it really well while some of the others don't. He ran on nothing but soft and heavy ground in France and he goes through it like a knife through butter.

If what Nicky says is true (That'll be the day) Then he will make this a real test of stamina and force the pace from the outset unless some nutter goes off at a million miles an hour which SWC will ignore.

I'll be surprised if there are more than 4 finishers if the rain keeps coming and Long Run looks certain to be at least one of them.
 
Marble said:
Someone said that a few days ago on here.:blink:

For a man with Henderson contacts it seems to me like you're looking for every way possible the jolly can get beat mate?!!:)
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The fact is I have never been a huge fan of Long Run and always considered him as being a bit overrated.

I thought both his King George and Gold Cup wins were very much a case of a horse being in the right place at the right time.

Kauto certainly wasn't himself in the King George that year and Denman was 2 years past his sell by date.

The proof of the pudding came when an ageing Kauto Star beat him twice in a row. Had they both been at the height of their careers I honestly believe Long Run wouldn't have got within 10 lengths of Kauto round Kempton.

The way I see it this race could go one of two ways.........Long Run will win by a a long way because others like Cue Card and Captain Chris don't see out the trip or he'll be run out of it by one of those two in the closing stages.

As far as I remember n the entire history of the race only Edredon Bleu has taken the jump from 2 mile plus races to win the King George and he won the Peterborough running away from them so it wasn't entirely a surprise when he proved he stayed 3 miles.

So the odds are stacked in Long Run's favour and he'll probably win but I couldn't back a horse who hasn't run to his best in a year at such skimpy odds..........but wouldn't go daft on anything to beat him either;)
 
he had everything in his favour last time though...after reading this thread..if he don't bolt up i wonder if LR fans will accept he isn't what they think...or will it be excuses?

if ever a horse had everything in its favour..its this race for LR

i hope he is backed real short on the day to give value elsewhere
 
Ground's drying out nicely outside, and though it's a fair way from London, much the same winds were forecast for that area. Kempton drys quickly anyway, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the ground no worse than soft.
That would bring RT and CC right back into it,and I'd sooner back both at around 13/8 than LR at only slightly longer.
 
Ten go to post, McCoy on The Giant Bolster. It wouldn't surprise me to see him place, he ran away with a good 2 mile 5 hc at Cheltenham before finishing second in the Gold Cup. the stable also had a big winner at Ascot yesterday.
 
EC1. You're a great poster on here, and many a time proven sound judge, but sometimes I feel you're taking it too seriously. Lets just keep it light mate, and friendly. What da ya reckon?
 
me - too serious?..shurely you jest;)

in the context of people who post on here generally..don't think i am really

i were only asking DG about the article that was going to appear..of which he was sure were going to make people look daft re Nicholls afffair..well..make me look daft as he highlighted my post when making the point

so if anyone was taking that seriously..it was DG not I
 
I know I know, i feel DG felt passionately about the Nicholls issue, made a statement about a statement, and we'll never hear the end of it lol, even of the kg thread.
 
Marble said:
I know I know, i feel DG felt passionately about the Nicholls issue, made a statement about a statement, and we'll never hear the end of it lol, even of the kg thread.
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i've no problem with passionate..but he did try to belittle with some future knowledge..which doesn't seem to have materialised

so i think it fair to ask why its not appeared..seeing as how he seems so well informed

happy christmas anyway..to all of you :)
 
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And you Ec1. Knowing you were probably right should be more comforting that proving you're right:)
 
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