The Road to the 2012 King George

rorydelargy said:
I'm of the view that Long Run still has a huge effort in him, but that they won't unlock it until forcing the pace. His style of running no longer suits him stalking the pace - he simply follows superior jumpers, making his idiosyncrasies more costly as a result, and is unable to inject pace when needed. He's fundamentally better than his contemporaries, but would need his "erse skelped" to show it. Or blinkers.
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I actually don't disagree with the supposition that aggressive tactics would see him to better effect, Rory. I think we'd have seen a different outcome to the Betfair Chase if Long Run had been sent-on going out onto the second circuit. However, I'm also of the opinion that a sharp track like Kempton no longer plays to his strengths, and that he really wants a trip now i.e. I don't think conditions are conducive to him running to his best.

LR backers are also stuck with SWC's moderate tactical nous and general lack of race-riding acumen, and the horse has developed a tendency to make errors too. At around 3/1, it seems a skinny-price to be taking that it all just suddenly clicks back into place.
 
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Can't see that Long Run lacks speed; he's already won twice around the track, and 7yo chasers aren't generally noted for being past their prime in that respect. The Waley-Cohens don't live in a cocoon either, so while he might not be the best jockey in the world, SWC would hardly lack for tactical advice, given those involved with the horse's training.
The horse's real problem is jumping (both clearing a fence, and getting away from it) and to lead the field would mean being taken on from the outset. His fencing just isn't up to the aggressive ride he would need to serve it up at this level. Not sure blinkers would do the trick either, as his problems are with technique, rather than concentration.
He must be a pig of a horse to train, as he really does have a massive engine, but he's frustrated every attempt to get him to fence quickly and accurately, and until that particular problem is sorted, no amount of messing with rider, tactics or equipment, will compensate.
Or maybe this forum could train him?:lol:
 
reet hard said:
Can't see that Long Run lacks speed; he's already won twice around the track, and 7yo chasers aren't generally noted for being past their prime in that respect. The Waley-Cohens don't live in a cocoon either, so while he might not be the best jockey in the world, SWC would hardly lack for tactical advice, given those involved with the horse's training.
The horse's real problem is jumping (both clearing a fence, and getting away from it) and to lead the field would mean being taken on from the outset. His fencing just isn't up to the aggressive ride he would need to serve it up at this level. Not sure blinkers would do the trick either, as his problems are with technique, rather than concentration.
He must be a pig of a horse to train, as he really does have a massive engine, but he's frustrated every attempt to get him to fence quickly and accurately, and until that particular problem is sorted, no amount of messing with rider, tactics or equipment, will compensate.
Or maybe this forum could train him?:lol:
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The simple truth is to put a professional jockey on his back. Unless he makes all he is unlikely to win as the pro jocks are wise to SWC and will mess him about in the race. Something has happened to the fitness of SWC imo compared to 2 years ago as he just does not look the same jockey anymore and this must have a negative affect on the horse. I stood up for SWC a couple of years back but cannot bring myself to back a horse he's riding anymore, although I truly wish him the best of luck.
 
reet hard said:
Can't see that Long Run lacks speed; he's already won twice around the track, and 7yo chasers aren't generally noted for being past their prime in that respect. The Waley-Cohens don't live in a cocoon either, so while he might not be the best jockey in the world, SWC would hardly lack for tactical advice, given those involved with the horse's training.
The horse's real problem is jumping (both clearing a fence, and getting away from it) and to lead the field would mean being taken on from the outset. His fencing just isn't up to the aggressive ride he would need to serve it up at this level. Not sure blinkers would do the trick either, as his problems are with technique, rather than concentration.
He must be a pig of a horse to train, as he really does have a massive engine, but he's frustrated every attempt to get him to fence quickly and accurately, and until that particular problem is sorted, no amount of messing with rider, tactics or equipment, will compensate.
Or maybe this forum could train him?:lol:
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I am not having this bit in red at all. If you take your point to its logical conclusion, skill means very little so long as you are surrounded by the right people.

He is a shite jockey, when set against his opponents in the races Long Run contests. Not average, not poor, but shite.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'm not disputing that the comparative differences would be the same, Steve. But if they're both 10lbs too high, it hardly bleedin' matters, does it!? :lol:
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I'm not fixated on what the number is. But you get the point that on his best performances (four of which have come in his last seven runs) he has 10lb to play with. On the worst of these runs it would be closer, but I still fancy him on that basis.

I've blogged it here: http://horseracingstrategyanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/
 
swedish chef said:
Something has happened to the fitness of SWC imo compared to 2 years ago as he just does not look the same jockey anymore and this must have a negative affect on the horse.
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He has very few rides under Rules; his main opportunity to get race-fit comes from point-to-pointing and the p-to-p season, while starting earlier these days, doesn't really get going properly until January and starts to tail off again end April/early May before ending altogether in early summer. So he's likely to be lacking even more race fitness and sharpness than usual in the Betfair-to-King George portion of the season.
 
Bar the Bull said:
He is a shite jockey, when set against his opponents in the races Long Run contests. Not average, not poor, but shite.
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He's won a Gold Cup and a King George and has a record in the National most senior professionals could only dream of. He's competent enough but he's maybe not the ideal jockey for Long Run.
 
I disagree that he is competent when compared to Walsh, McCoy, Tizzard, Geraghty, Johnson, Russell, Lynch...the jockeys he is likely to be up against this day week.

It is like saying that Noel Hunt is a competent striker. Sure he is a good striker compared to you and I, but he is not nearly as good as van Persie, Rooney, Aguero, Adebayor, etc.

If Chelsea were to sign him to replace Torres, I would see it as a big negative.
 
Long Run may very well relish heavy ground, based on previous races in France.

If it were good ground I'd be looking at horses like Grands Crus and The Giant The Bolster to run well, but on the heavy there is only one horse I'd want to be on and that would the jolly.

I think he could win by ten lengths.
 
HDB ..... "Just to confirm we've definitely ruled out the King George for Sizing Europe due to the ground. The Dial A Bet chase and Lexus chase are now his two options."
 
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Kauto Stone also has form on heavy in France, First Lieutenant has since franked the form of the Grade 1 at Down Royal, by finishing third in the Hennessey. a good each way bet i believe.
 
Marble said:
Long Run may very well relish heavy ground, based on previous races in France.

If it were good ground I'd be looking at horses like Grands Crus and The Giant The Bolster to run well, but on the heavy there is only one horse I'd want to be on and that would the jolly.

I think he could win by ten lengths.
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I fear you, and indeed Hamm, may be right. The weather has certainly turned against my place-lay bet, and conditions would appear to he heading in Long Run's favour.

Still, at least I have his jockey running for me.

:whistle:
 
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Probably they plan to sit out the back and pick up the stragglers like they did with Madison Du Berlais Aragorn. Those beaten tend to finish very tired at Kempton as they tend not to hang about in the King George, even when the ground isn't soft.
 
Judging by the betting it looks as though Sir Des Champs is coming over for this. With the likely bottomless ground I suspect this may be a straight shoot out between Long Run and Sir Des Champs, I've already pinned my colours to the mast but if I hadn't then I'd be relieving Boylesports of some of their 5/1 NRNB about the Irish horse.
 
DukeofMarmalade said:
Judging by the betting it looks as though Sir Des Champs is coming over for this. With the likely bottomless ground I suspect this may be a straight shoot out between Long Run and Sir Des Champs, I've already pinned my colours to the mast but if I hadn't then I'd be relieving Boylesports of some of their 5/1 NRNB about the Irish horse.
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Scrap the above, runs in the Lexus according to RP story just put up. Money must have been speculative.
 
I think Cue Card has no chance in these conditions. Long Run looks nailed on, even at 2s, but Riverside Theatre is a huge e/w bet at 11/2. Near impossible to see him out of the front 3. I'll add forecasts on the day.
 
Hamm said:
I think Cue Card has no chance in these conditions. Long Run looks nailed on, even at 2s, but Riverside Theatre is a huge e/w bet at 11/2. Near impossible to see him out of the front 3. I'll add forecasts on the day.
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Cue Card has won on soft and is going to be a stranger to very deep ground as are a number of others..RT is no heavy ground slogger at this trip either..so not sure why you think CC has no chance but RT has a place chance. Neither has won in a slog before.
 
Cue Card has for me a much more obvious stamina doubt.

No need to repeat your thoughts on RT and stamina.
 
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