The Road to the 2012 King George

Grasshopper said:
He is, Steve - if you're prepared to believe he'll recapture a level of form that is almost two years old.

I can understand why people would want to back him, but the more I think about it, the more I think that 2010 form was the exception, rather than the rule. As I said earlier in the thread, LR has had a lot of racing in a short space of time. His KG/GC wins came in his 9th and 10th starts over fences; which would be getting in the window for a good second-season novice to be at or near his peak - especially one with a further eight starts in hurdles to his name.

We're now two years, five starts, and no wins further down the line, and LR hasn't reached anywhere near the heights of that Gold Cup win in any of those outings.

Given his overall profile, a degree of regression - whilst not exactly everyday - isn't entirely extraordinary. And the regression, for what it is, isn't exactly calamitous anyway, as he's clearly still capable of top-class form. What he doesn't have (or more accurately, what there's no recent evidence to support) is a half-stone in hand of his contemporaries. He is one of several in with a chance, but with less scope to improve.

He is very-much vulnerable at Kempton, imo.
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Didnt he win the Gold Cup AFTER the KG 2 years ago? And the Denman chase last season? And run very consistently in every race?

I honestly cannot think of a worse place lay bet all over Xmas. He is practically the only horse who will stay, even if you feel he is regressing.
 
Hamm said:
Didnt he win the Gold Cup AFTER the KG 2 years ago? And the Denman chase last season? And run very consistently in every race?

I honestly cannot think of a worse place lay bet all over Xmas. He is practically the only horse who will stay, even if you feel he is regressing.
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i think its a good bet CC will stay Hamm..could see LR plodding on for 3rd at best though
 
Hamm said:
Didnt he win the Gold Cup AFTER the KG 2 years ago? And the Denman chase last season? And run very consistently in every race?

I honestly cannot think of a worse place lay bet all over Xmas. He is practically the only horse who will stay, even if you feel he is regressing.
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Beg your pardon, Hamm - he did indeed win at Newbury last season. And he did win the Gold Cup after the King George. Ifyou can tell me where I said otherwise, I'll be happy to correct myself a second time.

Everything else I said still stands. Time will tell if I've been foolish enough to strike the "worst place lay bet all over Xmas".....though I can think of worse prices to lay than 1.7 - especially when I know he'll get zero assistance from the saddle.
 
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You said we are now 2 years down the line, so even if you are forgetting his Denman Chase mighty win, I assumed you were going from the base position of his KG win (2 years).

He will stay, and some of the others will not. Unless SDC, SE and others come over, he is near guaranteed to be in the top 3, imho.

Ps, I am just trying to make sure there is bread for the little grasshoppers on the 27th ;)
 
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Having adopted my position and committed my cash, I'm naturally predisposed to viewing this as minor nit-picking of limited relevance, Hamm. :)

I am quite happy for you to Lord it over me if LR wins, or scrambles home a nose in third. Just be aware that I will not hesitate to swing the Howitzer in your direction, should he be chinned out of the places. :D

Edit: The little Grasshopper's will dine on Dodo-stuffed Unicorn this Christmas, as they do ever year. :cool: :D
 
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Long Run has run to 181 twice from four runs within the past year. This is actually a bit more than half a stone better than the best of his likely opponents and about 10lb better than most of them. His last run was about the same as the best of them, but for me he was clearly limbering up in that. I don’t see a worry with him. He should be able to hit something in the high 170s, which means he wins the races.
 
Steve, much as I'm delighted to see you round the parish again, I reserve the right not to get into another 'the rating is fact/fiction' discussion.

In fact, I thought your absence may have been due to you disappearing up your own rear-end, from the last time we crossed-swords on this particular topic! :D

Please...you, Hamm and anyone else who fancies Long Run; fill your boots, and good luck with your bets. :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
Steve, much as I'm delighted to see you round the parish again, I reserve the right not to get into another 'the rating is fact/fiction' discussion.

In fact, I thought your absence may have been due to you disappearing up your own rear-end, from the last time we crossed-swords on this particular topic! :D

Please...you, Hamm and anyone else who fancies Long Run; fill your boots, and good luck with your bets. :cool:
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Thanks for that... I’m not using the ratings for anything other than a sanity check. Put simply the horse is showing no signs of terminal decline and has run to a level the others won’t get near. He is also remarkably consistent in hitting his high marks in his main targets. So try as they might the others will be struggling to stay with him over the last.

Cue Card is improving and a really sweet horse, but in comparative terms he has run to a best of 170 and may not fully get the trip. So unless he improves another half a stone at the trip he won't get near LR.

The ratings are a secondary thing for me though. I can tell he'll win by watching him. ;-)
 
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Euronymous said:
When? He never got anywhere near 180 in his Gold Cup nevermind since.
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You are incorrect. He ran to 181 when beating Riverside Theatre in the KG. He ran to the same mark when beating Denman in the Gold Cup. He then reproduced the same mark when runner up to Kauto Star in this last year and hit the same mark again at Newbury in February (that’s four 181s). His last two races have been in the low 170s, which is as good as anything he’ll face this year. In other words his opponents need to improve to beat Long Run’s worst performance of his past seven.
 
if LR was ever a 181 horse then KS and Denman must have been 200+

fill yer boots on him if you really believe the 181 stuff..good luck ...he must be an absolute cert mind you with those figures
 
hang on..a 180 when giving 10 to Burton port???..who would have beat him if had been ridden harder to do so..in reality he is about 8 better than BP on that run

BP is a 160/163 horse at best and LR was all out..how does that equate to a 180 Steve?
 
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Burton Port (in receipt of 10lb) was deemed to have run to a best ever mark of 171 at Newbury (about the same mark as the best of LR's opponants in this year's KG, to put it in perspective).
 
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Grasshopper said:
Deemed by who, Steve?

Professor Whacko from the University of Ding-a-Ling-a-Dong?

:blink:
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No not by him. By the Racing Post.

To pre-empt your probable next point that RPRs are not worth the paper they're written on, use another set of ratings if you so desire in which the comparative differences will no doubt be about the same. (I'm only using RPRs as I have them to hand for all of the races in question.)

Like I say the ratings are not what convince me, it's by actually watching the horse perform... I commend that to the rest of you.;)
 
SteveM said:
No not by him. By the Racing Post.

To pre-empt your probable next point that RPRs are not worth the paper they're written on, use another set of ratings if you so desire in which the comparative differences will no doubt be about the same. (I'm only using RPRs as I have them to hand for all of the races in question.)

Like I say the ratings are not what convince me, it's by actually watching the horse perform... I commend that to the rest of you.;)
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i've watched him last twice..not for me Steve..over the cliff job imo..then there is the jumping...dodgy as usually..and yet not bad last time..but even without the mistakes it was one pace stuff for me
 
SteveM said:
No not by him. By the Racing Post.

To pre-empt your probable next point that RPRs are not worth the paper they're written on, use another set of ratings if you so desire in which the comparative differences will no doubt be about the same. (I'm only using RPRs as I have them to hand for all of the races in question.)

Like I say the ratings are not what convince me, it's by actually watching the horse perform... I commend that to the rest of you.;)
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I'm not disputing that the comparative differences would be the same, Steve. But if they're both 10lbs too high, it hardly bleedin' matters, does it!? :lol:

171 is the stamp of a really top-class horse, not a journeyman handicapper. Burton Port holds the Newbury form down; Long Run doesn't lift it up.

Putting his rating aside, the only thing that can really be deduced from Long Run's recent performances, is that he is a lot closer to the pack than his rating suggests. Unless, of course, one is prepared to focus soley on the Newbury run, and ignore the other four since his Gold Cup win. :cool:
 
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I'm of the view that Long Run still has a huge effort in him, but that they won't unlock it until forcing the pace. His style of running no longer suits him stalking the pace - he simply follows superior jumpers, making his idiosyncrasies more costly as a result, and is unable to inject pace when needed. He's fundamentally better than his contemporaries, but would need his "erse skelped" to show it. Or blinkers.
 
SteveM said:
Long Run has run to 181 twice from four runs within the past year. This is actually a bit more than half a stone better than the best of his likely opponents and about 10lb better than most of them. His last run was about the same as the best of them, but for me he was clearly limbering up in that. I don’t see a worry with him. He should be able to hit something in the high 170s, which means he wins the races.
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You could've made an even better case for him going into last season's KG (and the Gold Cup, and this year's Betfair). :)
 
rorydelargy said:
I'm of the view that Long Run still has a huge effort in him, but that they won't unlock it until forcing the pace. His style of running no longer suits him stalking the pace - he simply follows superior jumpers, making his idiosyncrasies more costly as a result, and is unable to inject pace when needed. He's fundamentally better than his contemporaries, but would need his "erse skelped" to show it. Or blinkers.
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Or Barry Geraghty.
 
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