The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

**** all that. Has little chance. He's a stonewall chaser.
Imagine if JP and Hendo had been involved in Cue Card.

What a pair of cunts.
 
I'm kind of pig-sick.

I had a look at the CH market this morning, and seeing Boylesports a standout 20/1 about BUV, quickly opened an account with them (never having had occassion to do so before), and loaded it up.

Of course, such was my avarice, I completely overlooked the rather-obvious fact that they were not NRNB on the race. I hesitated, then decided not to bet.

What a gaylord.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I'm kind of pig-sick.

I had a look at the CH market this morning, and seeing Boylesports a standout 20/1 about BUV, quickly opened an account with them (never having had occassion to do so before), and loaded it up.

Of course, such was my avarice, I completely overlooked the rather-obvious fact that they were not NRNB on the race. I hesitated, then decided not to bet.

What a gaylord.
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Don't worry about it. He won't win.
 
Was either going to be Top Notch or him.........him is the better choice

Buveur D'air was ahead of Altior in the pecking list at Seven Barrows early door but Altior was quicker to develop into a proper horse.

He definitely would have been a lot closer in the Supreme if he had been slightly more forward in condition and not been ridden with Aintree in mind.

Can't say I am shocked on this decision as he has speed to burn and 2 miles might be as far as he wants to go.......no idea tbh

I'll be surprised if Brain Power gets the better of Yanworth at Sandown his form simply isn't anywhere near good enough and they can all look great when the opposition is suspect,
They don't come any more suspect that the Betfair entry and fellow inmate Consul de Thaix who possibly not 100% when they met.

Buveur D'Air is definitely the dark horse in the race.

How serious we can take his defeat of Petite Mouchoir is debateable but that was the first time the grey, 40/1 on the day, showed any sort of worthwhile form.

We know Petite Mouchoir has improved no end this season the big question has Buveur D'Air improved as much,

There is absolutely no racecourse evidence although the acceleration he showed in his 1st chase was uncanny so he's certainly not gone backwards.

Great addition to the race but Wilson is right it's a bit of a fooked up run in to the race but it's a damn sight more interesting than last year when Annie stood head and shoulders against the old guard.

We have 5 horses with a realistic chance which will be reduces to 4 after the weekend 6 if you want to include MTOY and the New One and be bored shitless watching them lose yet again.

Buveur D'air price is about right at 12/1 as is Brain Power's 16/1 divided by the NJH factor of 2 makes them 6/1 and 8/1:lol:bookies logic
 
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I hear ya. BUV, Sizing John, Yanworth, Coney Island, Min. My ante-post health was looking very good, now looking a bit fragile.

I can see a scenario where I need Djakadam on the last day to show a profit.
 
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Euronymous said:
I hear ya. BUV, Sizing John, Yanworth, Coney Island, Min. My ante-post health was looking very good, now looking a bit fragile.

I can see a scenario where I need Djakadam on the last day to show a profit.
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Is betting Ante post for the festival not more about value and having a superior position on price?
Surely the hard work and profit is down to what goes on over the four days - handicaps, E/W doubles,trebles etc.
 
Like he keeps winning ?:lol: I find him hard to like Fonz, I think it's a visual thing he has no flair like Thistlecrack, Sprinter or Douvan he just does the job, nothing flash and goes home until next time. He also gets very little media coverage compared to the likes of Thistlecrack who makes headlines if he eats up in the morning
 
fonz said:
Is betting Ante post for the festival not more about value and having a superior position on price?
Surely the hard work and profit is down to what goes on over the four days - handicaps, E/W doubles,trebles etc.
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I don't get involved in jumps handicaps unless I have a tracker in one of them (and I never have that many of them on the jumps) and rarely get involved in multiples.

I have the value in a lot of my bets, I just need them to get there.
 
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Fair enough Euro, I've kind of scaled my h'cap betting back myself.
Cheltenham is different though :)
 
What has Buveur d'Aire done to justify his price in the Champion market.

I thought he looked electric on his debut but his Warwick effort was poor. Cloudy Dream who went step for step with him in Haydock for most of the race was beaten at the weekend.

You can get 5/2 about whether you trust Willie Mullins at the moment in the CH market.
 
HawkWing said:
What has Buveur d'Aire done to justify his price in the Champion market.

I thought he looked electric on his debut but his Warwick effort was poor. Cloudy Dream who went step for step with him in Haydock for most of the race was beaten at the weekend.

You can get 5/2 about whether you trust Willie Mullins at the moment in the CH market.
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The market presumably thinks that with - Faugheen and Annie out - last year's Supreme form is above standard, and any horse getting that close to Altior, might have a chance. It might also tell them something about how McManus views his pecking-order, given he also owns the second-favourite.

BD'A doesn't yet have the hurdles form in the bag to win this Champion Hurdle, but if last season's Supreme is all it's cracked-up to be, he probably has less to find than we might think. Stick Altior in here, and he would probably be clear favourite, so why not switch in BD'A who ran him to 8L?

I wouldn't get involved myself - mainly out of spite because I missed the price - but I think he is an interesting addition to the race. I suspect current prices reflect a degree of bookies not knowing quite what the fu*ck to do with him, and there might be a correction over the next few days. There will almost certainly be one when he runs in his prep anyway.
 
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Grasshopper said:
The market presumably thinks that with - Faugheen and Annie out - last year's Supreme form is above standard, and any horse getting that close to Altior, might have a chance. It might also tell them something about how McManus views his pecking-order, given he also owns the second-favourite.

BD'A doesn't yet have the hurdles form in the bag to win this Champion Hurdle, but if last season's Supreme is all it's cracked-up to be, he probably has less to find back over the small obstacles than we think. Take Faugheen out, and it's a wide-open race, imo. Stick Altior in, and he would probably be clear favourite. Stick BD'A in, so why not switch in a horse who ran him to 8L.

I wouldn't get involved myself - mainly out of spite for missing the price - but I think he is an interesting addition to the race. I think current prices reflect an element of bookies not knowing quite what the fu*ck to do with him, and there might be a correction over the next few days. There will almost certainly be one when he runs in his prep anyway.
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Yes, if Altior was entered he would be favourite. I think its strange that he doesn't go for it. But it doesn't follow that BDA is automatically three points bigger. 5/1!!

He was a long way behind Altior in the Supreme. Outside of the winner, I thought it was pretty average race. What price would Charbel or North Hill Harvey, Tombstone or Mister Miyagi be, if they were entered.
 
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North Hill Harvey hasn't done the form any harm, to be fair.

5/1 a bit cheap, I agree. Like I say, it looks like a panic price, that will be corrected eventually.
 
Most of the money I placed in October AP is now either none existent (Vautour, Annie) or have literally no chance of happening.
BU'D - Arkle
Senewalk - Supreme
Apples Jade - Champ Hurdle
ADO - 8/1 RSA

Might give up this anti post game.
 
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HawkWing said:
What has Buveur d'Aire done to justify his price in the Champion market.

I thought he looked electric on his debut but his Warwick effort was poor. Cloudy Dream who went step for step with him in Haydock for most of the race was beaten at the weekend.

You can get 5/2 about whether you trust Willie Mullins at the moment in the CH market.
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He scares them because he is an unknown who without a doubt is very highly thought of by Nicky Henderson.

The very fact JP was advised to buy him tell you that. Horse has a helluva engine and looks like an out and out 2 miler

I would have thought he should be nearer 10/1 due to the lack of racecourse proof over hurdles but on the other hand I wouldn't lay him at 6/1 which you can do if you think he can't win
 
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