The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

I actually think if you want to use "marker" form...then Sign Of A Victory may be a better line

SOAV was beaten 23 lengths by AP at Cheltenham..but Faugheen beat him 37 lengths easily at Kempton..SOAV was eased a bit there but that is counteracted by the ease of win for Faugheen.

SOAV gave 7lb to AP so is 16-18lbs inferior to AP..but is nearly double that inferior to Faugheen...even allowing for the fact that AP wasn't a full stretch at Cheltenham..she may be say 20-25 better than SOAV if fully extended..which still gives Faugheen a decent edge on her

even though that is probably not a real in exact terms difference..it shows that Faugheen has a few lbs to play with over AP..if marker form is what is being used as the measure

my own opinion based on what they have achieved is that Faugheen is more than the allowance better than AP..so would beat her
 
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granger said:
Thanks DO - what fancy prices did you take
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33/1(which is still available in places) to smallish stakes.

It's not so much that I think he's up to winning - he has a long way to go - but I have gone high with my rating for him and I'm hoping he can improve another half-stone through the season. I'm really hoping to lay off at less than half the price to give me a bet to no risk. If he were mine I'd put him away for the Schweppes ahead of the Champion. I think he'd be very hard to beat at Newbury off 149.

Then again, I may be reading the form all wrong!
 
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you say "giving weight"..but in reality Faugheen isn't giving Annie weight..its the sex allowance

if we talkin what "weight" Faugheen could give and still win..about 12lbs imo..maybe more///of which 7 or whatever would be the allowance

if you got any evidence to show that AP could beat him..post it up..just saying AP will beat F..isn't really proving much..we can all do that really you know

what is behind your thinking?
 
Horse/OR/Best RPR

Faugheen/176/177
Annie Power/166/170

Whatever way you look at it, with the mare's allowance those ratings show it to be a good or bad jump either way. All academic anyway. It won't happen.
 
Assuming you agree with the ORs and/or the RPRs, archie, then yes - it is close. In real terms, I don't think it's anywhere near close, because the rating for AP suggests that MTOY has basically run to a near career-best, after 2 years off the track, and I simply cannot have that. She is very good......but it was basically not all that great of a Champion Hurdle, in Faugheen's absence, and took a lot less winning than a 'normal' edition (imho).

I also think Faugheen's OR and RPR are both undercooked a little. As I said following the ICH, I thought it was punching around 180 performance myself, and if it helps add context, I have it rated higher than anything Hurricane Fly produced in his career.......and you can imagine how much it sticks in my craw to admit that. :cool:

Agreed though - a race between the two just won't happen.
 
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EC1 said:
you say "giving weight"..but in reality Faugheen isn't giving Annie weight..its the sex allowance

if we talkin what "weight" Faugheen could give and still win..about 12lbs imo..maybe more///of which 7 or whatever would be the allowance

if you got any evidence to show that AP could beat him..post it up..just saying AP will beat F..isn't really proving much..we can all do that really you know

what is behind your thinking?
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Weight, sex allowance, birthday present, gift from above, call it what you wish :D it brings them closer together.

It's an opinion which we all have. No crystal ball in this game whichever way you analyse it. Like most I use my own judgement which I'm more than happy with. Some you win and some you lose.
 
sex allowance and wfa are no "adavntage"..they = a level playing...and on a level playing field the figures clearly point to F being better

if you post something that shows me otherwise..then all i am discusiing is ....you saying..AP will beat F...there is no logic in that statement without backing it up
 
I go by what I see. You analyse differently, no problem.

I'm more than happy with my logic EC cheers.
 
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what is it though that makes you think the allowance will swing it?

i go by numbers..you are going by "feel"..or "see"..and i respect see ers....i like going by "feel" mesen sometimes..but usually that is backed up by something.

if you just think AP would win..fair enough..but there must be something that is telling you

don't get me wrong here..i don't think Faugheen is of Night Nurse level..but i certainly believe he is better than AP level

to me last years CH was a watered down affair
 
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Based on that Irish Champion Hurdle performance, I would have Faugheen at Istabraq's level myself - I think he is/was that good.

He'll never win 5x ICH's though. ;)
 
that IC hhurdle performance was something for sure..but using NC could be a mistake..its races like that ..that time comes into play..yes i know its scorned upon..but it really is important with a race like that..and it was a good time..but the time also told you that those behind hadn't run to those lofty ratings they held..the time of it told me though..that such as AP would not beat a match fit Faugheen..based on it
 
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They way they campaign him with 3-4 races a season, he might get to 12 yo and still be top shape. But no he already missed a ICH because Mullins love affair with HF and he'll miss 3 more as now RR thinks he got injured because he ran in it. Apparently getting injured 3 weeks after a race means that race was the culprit. Faugheen proved time and time again that he gets better with more racing, not with less. He made a mess in the Neptune, had an unconvincing CH win, made 2 modest seasonal appearances in one of them got beat in other beat Blue Fashion by only 4 lengths. He needs as many races as possible to get his level at the top, proved that in the P'town Novice in 2014, proved that in P'town CH 2015 and proved it in ICH. He improves along in the season with more racing, keeping him 3 months on the bench and then asking a top effort in a championship race is plain stupid.
 
EC1 said:
that IC hhurdle performance was something for sure..but using NC could be a mistake..its races like that ..that time comes into play..yes i know its scorned upon..but it really is important with a race like that..and it was a good time..but the time also told you that those behind hadn't run to those lofty ratings they held..the time of it told me though..that such as AP would not beat a match fit Faugheen..based on it
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It's not just NC, EC1.......it's Arctic Fire too. He was an ultra-consistent mid-160's performer over his half-dozen previous races, and Faugheen beat him twice as far as he had in the previous season's Punchestown Champion Hurdle.......in a common canter. I've absolutely no doubt that that ICH performance is right up there with the best hurling form we've seen in the last 20 years. It was a breathtaking effort.
 
the time put up by Faugheen there is about 175 on my calcs Grass,,if you go off NC its over 185...it was very good...but assuming NC ran to best is stretching it imo

i'm being realistic with what was actually produced..AP would not have lived with hm that day imo
 
If you use Arctic Fire as a marker, you get 181, so split the difference. :cool:

I think part of the reason both NC and AF ran below their best, was because they were trying to keep tabs with Faugheen, and left their finishing-effort somewhere down the back-straight.......but it still throws-out a superlative performance, any way I look at it.
 
Timeform has AF running a stone below his best(168+) and NC 2 stones below his best(165+). Still rated 176 for that run, and remember this is over hurdles. Thats like a horse over fences putting up a 185+ performance. I think only Sprinter and Kauto did it in last 20 years, only once in their career. I think Faugheen, can put more of these, over 2 or 3 miles. Depends what takes him on.
 
don't you use your own ratings Aughex?..ffs..having to call on TF makes you look an amateur tbh..come on lad..step up to the plate and be a real individual ..chap?

you won't get rich following TF ratings you know..no edge there:)

when your bread and butter comes from making decisions based on your own judgement...i tend to take a person more seriously:)
 
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AF is/was a much better horse at Cheltenham on better ground. He showed that when 2nd to him in the Champion. Given stronger fractions it possibly could have been even closer.
Would that performance have been good enough to have beaten Annie?
You can argue he displayed an improved performance in the ICH. Would he have produced that at Cheltenham on better ground?
That along with taking on a stronger opposition in Annie who has won her races without fuss.
I certainly don't think he would have waltzed away from her at Cheltenham like some/many believe.

Still, all about opinions in this game.
 
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Faugheen beat Arctic Fire 8L on better ground at Punchestown without breaking sweat, Frankel. In fact, that ICH apart, all of Faugheen's best efforts have come on better ground.

It isn't an excuse for how he pulverised both NC and AF in the Irish Champion. That was down to one thing alone, imo - Faugheen's undisputed superiority. If it was down to a single factor like the ground, then Faugheen surely wouldn't have been beaten by NC in the Morgiana.

IMHO, of course.
 
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