The Road to the 2017 Champion Hurdle

its all about opinions based on some kind of benchmark or results pattern Frankel.....just throwing shapes out there based on nowt bar.."well i think this or that"..to me isn't much good..it does for some folk..but i need butter on it Frankel to be swayed..and we all post to try and sway..or whats the point?

i can say owt i like without any basis of fact..but at end of day..that view would be judged on results of past judgement

if you can say what your judgement is like with past results..and they look impressive..i'd personally change my mind..as i would know you have good judgement

its a bit like a brain surgeon who has killed his last 50 patients saying to me..well i think i can operate and you will live..i'm not really going to be too confident..but if that surgeon has a good record of patients actually breathing after the op..i'd be taking his "feel" and opinion more seriously

i tend to judge peoples "feel" by how often they succeed or are correct..i know it sounds churlish..but that is my benchmark for taking someone's view re racing.....just based on "feel"..if they can back up a view..then its a different ball game.

I take that view about everyone tbh..nothing personal..because i like your views generally..and often i agree..but i need butter on it to be swayed:D
 
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EC1 said:
don't you use your own ratings Aughex?..ffs..having to call on TF makes you look an amateur tbh..come on lad..step up to the plate and be a real individual ..chap?
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:lol: Aren't all amateurs that get into racing starting to develop their own ratings? :) When I got into it I also started to do some ratings based on weights but in my world with a full time job, all I ended up with was an amateur guess work that lacked a team of handicappers that watches racing non-stop to bring in ideas in regards to certain unsolvable races. I think thats when I decided to follow those that make up these ratings for decades, like TF, so I could then criticize them when I felt they're wrong. I have developed full algos based on their ratings so that I know in which races I can get involved and not and its basically more of a small matter of constantly fixing the algo to serve and reach a good profit level. Its all programmed, and when I manually have strong opinions I express them on forums regardless of what my algos or the ratings tell me.
 
Grasshopper said:
Faugheen beat Arctic Fire 8L on better ground at Punchestown without breaking sweat, Frankel. In fact, that ICH apart, all of Faugheen's best efforts have come on better ground.

It isn't an excuse for how he pulverised both NC and AF in the Irish Champion. That was down to one thing alone, imo - Faugheen's undisputed superiority. If it was down to a single factor like the ground, then Faugheen surely wouldn't have been beaten by NC in the Morgiana.

IMHO, of course.
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I fully expected Faugheen to win easily in the IC.
As for the Morgiana, he clearly just needed the run. I certainly wasn't one who thought NC was a Champion Hurdle winner on the back of it.

Tis a tad pointless this debate as they are highly unlikely to square up at Cheltenham.
I'm a fan of Faugheen like the next person. Annie would be a stern opponent in my view however. We'll never know me thinks :ninja:
 
lol..what a load of old bullshit Aughex..algo's...ffs..like spangles are they?..spouting supposed algorithms don't impress me Aughex..i just think the person using that jargon is a bit of a tool tbh,,i thought better of you tbh

I could lose you when i'm nodding off re this game...this is my living now..i don't have or need a "job" to fall back on like you do..i stand or fall on judgement..and these few big races ain't where its at where eating is concerned..they an aside..just another race to me re money back...they don't register above halfway in my world where making a living is concerned

i'd lose you with day to day backing..you ain't in the same league me owld..and never will be from what i've seen on here...you a lightweight in my world..you make me laugh though..so thats a start,,,keep posting..i like you:)

if you want to talk to me about racing..talk as though you are talking to someone with at least half a brain...the "algo" bollox just does not cut it with me..sorry.
 
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EC1 said:
lol..what a load of old bullshit Aughex..algo's...ffs..like spangles are they?..spouting supposed algorithms don't impress me Aughex..i just think the person using that jargon is a bit of a tool tbh,,i thought better of you tbh

I could lose you when i'm nodding off re this game...this is my living now..i don't have or need a "job" to fall back on like you do..i stand or fall on judgement..and these few big races ain't where its at where eating is concerned..they an aside..just another race to me re money back...they don't register above halfway in my world where making a living is concerned

i'd lose you with day to day backing..you ain't in the same league me owld..and never will be from what i've seen on here...you a lightweight in my world..you make me laugh though..so thats a start,,,keep posting..i like you:)
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:lol: algos spangles, thats really funny I like you too, I used to post my selections a couple of years ago on SBC forum with profit around 15% ROI, only big races and weekends. I have no interest in doing that again because I can't follow the prices these days with all my accounts closed and living in another country, I can only do betfair and betting with crypto bookies but not all races are available on there and the odds are lower most of the times than I'll get at BSP. Its not about competition, its about making profit so I congratulate anyone who can do it, especially with their own ratings, not relying on either Official or other private orgs ratings but for myself I can't do without.
 
fair play Aughex..its sink or swim for me literally now...these big races are fun..and i love the banter,,but i couldn't make a living off these....bread and butter is day to day for me...we will chat more i'm sure during the season
 
EC1 said:
why?..he was meeting two good opponents..would you really have expected the extent of the spanking he gave them?
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NC was coming off that brutal race with Identity Thief. AF is a better horse on better ground. Also had reservations how he would have come out of his previous race over 3m.

No doubt it was a cracking performance from Faugheen mind.
 
its hard to quantify Frankel..until the old stopwatch gets involved in proceedings:)..if only punters would come out of the dark ages..they might see the light:)

there is no kiddin the clock..and the kind of race the ICH was..defies AvB sorting..it doesn't add up using that method..but it does when time is involved

the trouble with time analysis..is it takes time to do it..so its probably best to ignore it rather than take the effort to employ it,,thats why its so under used and ignored imo

untangling that race without it is a massive guessing game
 
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My figures for them

Faugheen. 179? In the irish champion, previously had posted 170 twice


about the mare
i think she is better over 2 1/2 miles than at 2m

she was last year at her best
posting 166? At Aintree
and 161? In the champion hurdle
previously she had been running to 156
 
Aughex said:
:lol: Aren't all amateurs that get into racing starting to develop their own ratings? :) When I got into it I also started to do some ratings based on weights but in my world with a full time job, all I ended up with was an amateur guess work that lacked a team of handicappers that watches racing non-stop to bring in ideas in regards to certain unsolvable races. I think thats when I decided to follow those that make up these ratings for decades, like TF, so I could then criticize them when I felt they're wrong. I have developed full algos based on their ratings so that I know in which races I can get involved and not and its basically more of a small matter of constantly fixing the algo to serve and reach a good profit level. Its all programmed, and when I manually have strong opinions I express them on forums regardless of what my algos or the ratings tell me.
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There might be an error in your Douvan algorithm.

:ninja:
 
EC1 said:
......untangling that race without it is a massive guessing game
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We might quibble about a lb on a rating here or there, but just as you don't need "franking" to tell you how good a performance was, some of us don't need the clock either. As far as I'm concerned, there is zero guesswork needed to figure-out that race - Faugheen demolished them: it's that simple.

Good to hear that it's going so well. I'll put the Baked Beans order on hold. :lol:
 
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franking and timing are two different things though..hence there is a thread on here where people adore the timester..but no thread re franking..thats the difference:)

knowing a performance is "bloody good" don't equate in my world..i want to know how good..again..the frankster will be guessing a whole lot more than the timester

the diss against time ratings by punters generally imo is based on punter laziness..its all too much effort..so diss it and hopefully a few other lazy types will agree and confirm how poor a method is..just to confirm a communal idleness..makes people believe their laziness is actually shrewdness

funny old game..filled with funny old ideas..and communal lazy backslapping based on dyed in the wool chestnuts that are near impossible to eradicate from the punter mindset

very little changes re general punter..i heard a lot in the 70's in betting shops ... i still hear now on forums...the game as moved on..most punters are static though....even with the internet they seem unable to view the game in a modern light..even though hundreds of avenues have opened up to them..still same old mindset developed in first 6 months they spent following the game.

its odd..because footy punters seem to embrace the interent and the analysis and stats etc..even managers are using stats now..but old racing punter is still saying..well A beat B and b won again..so A must be really good..i wonder how football punters would view that thinking..well Crystal Palace beat Man u last week...and Liverpool lost to Man U week before..so palace look good against Liverpool..don't they?...or do they?:)
 
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Fair enough......but if the clock really was the oracle, you can rest assured that everone would be using it.

No point reprising old arguments here. It's what works for the individual that counts.
 
nothing is the oracle Grass..you know that..i know that..but it doesn't deserve the dissing it gets..yes its more important on the flat..but even the official handicapper used time when assessing the Betfair Chase last season..its on here on the thread for the official view..funny..coz a few days before i posted virtually identical analysis..does he read the forum?:D

untangling a race like that ICH is very difficult...i know some punters who would take a look at that and say..its not worth paper its printed on..just because it looks to hard to entangle:)

if i were to pick a race to test someone on about racing..that race is in the top 5 for sure

at the end of the day..my mindset is..i want to extract the maximum information from the minimum amount thats on offer..and the time of the race is part of that minimum info we get

i won't have time to do that so much this year re timings..but when a conundrum like that pops up..its worth a delve into

its a cracking race is that ICH..its one of those..is he that good?..is it a fluke?..type of race...a beaut for analysis..loved it
 
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if your next meal depended on it..you'd view it differently

a hobbyist will have that view obviously..its not real life though when you ain't got the safety and security of someone paying you for "work"

hopefully you won't experienece that..if you do..that high horse you riding will have turned into a donkey
 
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If I did it professionally you mean? The only way that would happen is if I had a six figure bankroll - and even then I wouldn't change my approach.
 
So......can we conclusively say that the clock is bollocks if you go skint, EC1?

Relax, pal.....I'm only pulling yer leg. :cool:
 
if you need a 6 figure bankroll..then you ain't much good tbh..i don't buy that sort of talk..because i've lived reality,,not fantasy land

i am 60 now..worked since i was 16..made more money this last 2 years since taking redundancy...than i did 10 years in "employment"..and i can absolutely guarantee you i didn't start with six figures..i wish
 
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