The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Valseur Lido has finished 2nd in two consecutive 21/2 mile Festival chases, both times to VAUTOUR.
Both times he got slightly outpaced, then rallied to finish very strongly; suggesting the further he goes the better he is going to be.
Using a stat to decide whether he prefers L/H or R/H and omitting the Vautour factor is dangerous in my opinion.
 
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Maxbet said:
Valseur Lido has finished 2nd in two consecutive 21/2 mile Festival chases, both times to VAUTOUR.
Both times he got slightly outpaced, then rallied to finish very strongly; suggesting the further he goes the better he is going to be.
Using a stat to decide whether he prefers L/H or R/H and omitting the Vautour factor is dangerous in my opinion.
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depends if you call how a horse has actually performed against odds expectancy a stat..i'd be more tempted to call it looking at what a horse has actually achieved ..or reading its form....which the figures show me personally

Its just form expressed in a clearer way than using wins or losses to try and assess preference. In comparison to using dosage..what a horse has done wins for me when trying to untangle the puzzles these horses set for us..just a choice thing really.

Re the form you mentioned..

VL finished 3rd in 2015 to Vautour..in second was Apache Stronghold..a horse that a few weeks later..at RH Punchestown then finished behind VL..that supports a little that RH suits more than LH..if we want to look at where horses finished as a marker.

Last year..yes..VL ran well at Cheltenham behind Vautour..but thats one run out of all its form you are hanging your hat on..i'd rather take a % view of whole of a horses record..its all about opinion really..my view based on overall record is if i want to win when backing this one..i'd be supporting more when it runs RH than left.

Thats not saying VL can't win LH or run well..its a % call...i go on % call..whilst other people will go on one or two bits of form...there are no ultimate can or can'ts to me...its not that sort of a game really
 
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Another aspect with Valseur Lido is that winning in November is the norm with him..his form in November is 11111 with an IV of 1.73..so clearly this is a good time of year for him
 
He would have won the Irish Hennessy comfortably going left-handed if he hadn't come down. That performance if completed would have been a significant step up on his previous left handed form.

I'm saying this because it's worth considering that he had more improvement to make going left handed and he may well have made sufficient to make him a contender in left handed Grade 1 chases now.


His LH/RH stats as an improving horse I'd be wary about taking at face value.
 
The Irish Hennessy is also run in February, so that evidence would rule out a November specialist too.
 
EC1 said:
Another aspect with Valseur Lido is that winning in November is the norm with him..his form in November is 11111 with an IV of 1.73..so clearly this is a good time of year for him
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Some of it is out of the horses hands (so to speak) and how he has been campaigned - stable 3rd/4th string running in races where he likely can't demonstrate his full ability
 
Maxbet said:
The Irish Hennessy is also run in February, so that evidence would rule out a November specialist too.
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no..i wasn't suggesting he's a November one trick pony at all..the thinking was that anyone seeing him in November might get carried away and think it somehow affects Cheltenham...imo it don't encourage me to fancy a horse like this next year..as he always wins in November was the message

Like i said..and keep saying...it doesn't mean he can't win left handed..this is what i find all the time..everything is black and white with so many punters

the game is a % play..its not a ..can...can't ...game...is this hard too understand or does it have to get mentioned every five minutes:)

we are all aiming at the same goal here...i personally don't want folk getting carried away with this or that..so try to put it in context

but if folk really fancy the horse in the GC..then my attitude..is get on
 
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He would have won the Irish Hennessy comfortably going left-handed if he hadn't come down.

i disagree tbh..that race collapsed at the front end..and the winner wasn't sighted at the last shows you to what extent it collapsed..it don't matter how easy a horse looks to be going off that type of pace..its a long run in..and as the winner showed..being away from that pace was beneficial to a large degree..there is nothing cut and dried imo in a race like that with such a good way to go

i'll wager if you looked at that race at the last fence..and you didn't know what won..CL would have been a very large price to win at that point..even after VL fell
 
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I don't want to take anything away from Carlingford Lough Alan, but Valseur Lido was the only one still travelling. Everything else was done for. If VL had stayed upright CL would have been a fast-closing but well beaten second. The fact that VL was appearing to stay on well enough off such a fast pace is why I'm not certain I'd take a dosage stat into consideration, and why I brought Kauto Star in to the debate in an earlier post.

I'm not knocking your stats by the way. I'm very much a stats man myself. I'm just offering a reason why I might choose to ignore them in this case. I produce my own stats as you know, but I always look to find reasons why I should ignore them and make exceptions. If I can't, I go with the stats and bet accordingly. My response to you isn't a challenge to your stats or how you use them, it's simply borne out out of my own habit of challenging them more than anything else.
 
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Maruco said:
I don't want to take anything away from Carlingford Lough Alan, but Valseur Lido was the only one still travelling. Everything else was done for. If VL had stayed upright CL would have been a fast-closing but well beaten second. The fact that VL was appearing to stay on well enough off such a fast pace is why I'm not certain I'd take a dosage stat into consideration, and why I brought Kauto Star in to the debate in an earlier post.

I'm not knocking your stats by the way. I'm very much a stats man myself. I'm just offering a reason why I might choose to ignore them in this case. I produce my own stats as you know, but I always look to find reasons why I should ignore them and make exceptions. If I can't, I go with the stats and bet accordingly. My response to you isn't a challenge to your stats or how you use them, it's simply borne out out of my own habit of challenging them more than anything else.
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no prob...we all have our own views based on what we believe in...i like challenging stuff mesen:lol:
 
Nico De Boinville says Coneygree came out of his working / schooling session at Haydock "swimmingly". Betfair Chase run is expected
 
From The Guardian

Connections of Coneygree appeared thoroughly pleased with their morning’s work after last year’s Gold Cup winner had a spin around Haydock in preparation for his return to action. A hock injury has kept the nine-year-old from public view for just over a year but there was nothing in Wednesday’s racecourse gallop to dissuade his handlers from sending him back to the Merseyside track a week on Saturday for the Betfair Chase.
“He went very well,” said Sara Bradstock, wife of Mark, Coneygree’s trainer. “He galloped for a couple of miles and was perfect. He went a mile and a half with a nice bumper horse and then Carruthers [the 2011 Hennessy winner] jumped in and Coneygree quickened again.
“We’re delighted with him but I think we’re even more delighted that he’s just come off the box as well as he has,” said Bradstock, newly returned to the yard at Letcombe Bassett, near Lambourn. “He ran off the box, feeling very happy with himself.”
Nico de Boinville, Coneygree’s regular rider, made a significant sacrifice to partner him in the workout, as he became stuck in traffic on the M6 afterwards and missed a winning ride in the opening race here. “I was tearing out what little hair I’ve got left,” he said, having arrived in time to ride the winner of the third.
Of Coneygree, De Boinville added: “He came out of that piece of work swimmingly. Very, very good, all positive. Galloped lovely. It’s all systems go.”
Bradstock, who had been anxious for confirmation of Coneygree’s fitness, expressed no lingering concerns on that score and expects that the horse will now run in the Betfair. However, she added one caveat: “We are always ground dependent and we’ll have to see what the weather does.
“They had a good bit of rain last night, so it was beautiful, perfect wet ground today. We should know by Monday whether we’ll be running or not. We just want safe jumping ground, preferably soft, because three miles around a track like that would be sharp enough for him.”
Coneygree remains 3-1 second favourite for the Betfair, behind only last year’s winner, Cue Card. If he were to miss the Haydock race for any reason, the following week’s Hennessy would be another obvious target, though the Bradstocks would rather not ask him to carry top weight in a big-field handicap for his return from a year off.
 
I think Coney is actually underrated for what he achieved

He won a GC as a novice with a brilliant display - amazing jumper and such a nice horse

Really really have so much time for him and his story
 
Common sense prevails. The Gold Cup is one thing but after Newbury, the Feltham and back to Cheltenham on trials days he'd go there fairly well prepared.

The King George would be a step too far too soon though IMHO.
 
Agree wilsonl, I said the same thing after his first run when I saw Tizzard post-race interview in which he got so blind as to suggest that a KG is possible after a single run over fences. Glad they're giving him more experience for the big day instead of rushing his preparations.
 
Just looking at prices for the betfair, cue card looks crazy short after his comeback. Given that the ground is currently soft, I thought seeyouatmidnight was overpriced at 10s. Is he a likely runner? Irish cavalier looked a bit big at 12s also, although I'm not sure if he'd want soft ground.

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Took that price on Seeyou this morning. Can't have Irish Cavalier though, they'll go a decent pace in this and I don't think he'll finish his race. May back Outlander on the day if he runs. Very good betting race.
 
littlelad said:
Just looking at prices for the betfair, cue card looks crazy short after his comeback. Given that the ground is currently soft,
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i'm not saying Cue Card will win..but why is soft ground a negative for him do you think?..he won last years Betfair Chase on soft ground head in chest..in fact he has won most of his races on soft ground. From his last 9 wins...5 have come on soft ground
 
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