The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Grasshopper said:
The look on his face and the tone of his voice, when he said that no mare had ever won two Champion Hurdles. They just didn't sound like the words of a man relishing the challenge of upsetting that particular statistic - not to me, at any rate.
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I just took that as him saying that that stat will be broken in march and that was where she was going.
What was depressing if we didn't already know was that they wouldn't both end up in the Champion. I thought maybe Faugheen was the one who would have to make alternative arrangements.
 
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I wouldn't take a blind bit of notice of anything he said, after last season's debacle it's obvious that the man couldn't lie straight in bed.
 
tiggers1972 said:
I wouldn't take a blind bit of notice of anything he said, after last season's debacle it's obvious that the man couldn't lie straight in bed.
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:thumbsup:

This situation with RR is a classic example of punter conditioning imo...even though put away last time..punters still hold store by what he says..and yet.. only a few months ago there were scathing posts about the same guy.

Punters will dismiss angles and methods the first time they fail to be true..the classic..is.."ooh that stat is no good".. the first time its wrong in 20 years.."just shows how good stats are".......but will still hang on the word of a trainer or owner no matter how many times burned or how big the burn is

an interesting study in inconsistency of thinking i find
 
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I refer you to my earlier "gobshite" caveat when it comes to RR, and the wildly different interpretations about plans for his Champion Hurdle horses, EC1.

I take everything he says with a pinch of salt, and hold no store in what he says - I was merely reprising what he said during his interview, for the 'benefit' of anyone who may have missed it.
 
i don't think RR knowingly puts punters away. i think he's very passionate about the game and his stock and when he talks he maybe gets carried away himself and his own musings about what he might envisage happening down the line.

the problem he has is the politics of the yard his horse are in is very delicate. you've got willie who will always have his own ideas about where the horses should be placed and, maybe more importantly, what ruby walsh wants and how he can maximise the number of winners he has. and ricci doesn't want to damage the relationship he has with both.

he probably just needs to be more careful with what he says.
 
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JamesRB said:
i don't think RR knowingly puts punters away. i think he's very passionate about the game and his stock and when he talks he maybe gets carried away himself and his own musings about what he might envisage happening down the line.

the problem he has is the politics of the yard his horse are in is very delicate. you've got willie who will always have his own ideas about where the horses should be placed and, maybe more importantly, what ruby walsh wants and how he can maximise the number of winners he has. and ricci doesn't want to damage the relationship he has with both.

he probably just needs to be more careful with what he says.
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Bang on.
 
Talks of prepping a horse in the KG for a QM is utter nonsense -its a token response of someone who wuuld be better served saying ' all options are now open'

Maybe his racing manager is a mute
 
Grasshopper said:
I refer you to my earlier "gobshite" caveat when it comes to RR, and the wildly different interpretations about plans for his Champion Hurdle horses, EC1.

I take everything he says with a pinch of salt, and hold no store in what he says - I was merely reprising what he said during his interview, for the 'benefit' of anyone who may have missed it.
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not totally sure he is a gobshite..i feel that he and Willie are two very strong minded people..Willie lets RR think he is running the show..until crunch time comes..then Willie just talks him round. I do get the feeling that if there was another trainer like Mullins around..that RR would have moved his horses the day afterl the Ryanir..you could not have looked more fed up after winning a G1 than RR did

Like i mentioned a week or two agao..it wouldn't surprise me to see teh two of them part ways before much longer..obviously there needs to be a strong candidate to do the pulling..but you never know who is going to pop up the trainer league in a season. I'd be tempted to try and get Dan Skelton over there and move every horse to him if i were RR..he is a smart upcoming chap with champion trainer written all over him.
 
We should ban all quotes about plans for their horses from Messrs Rich, Mullins and Walsh until the Monday of festival week.

It's not entirely their fault, they're entitled to keep their options open as long as possible, and people are hanging on every word as if it's part of an immutable plan.
 
If they step Douvan up in trip and he wins the KG surely no chance they would step back down . They would have to go for the Gold Cup - if Sprinter Sacre is in the same form as last year he is as big if not more of a threat than the GC field ( remember Moscow Flyer won the TG at 10 and CC at 11.
 
douvan winning the KG is not even in the minds of the logical..3m2f?...only dreamers are in that one...get real...needs to go the 2m route...owt else is daftness imo
 
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Narrowing The Field's verdict on Valseur Lido's chances of winning the CGC ( or not :whistle:)


There’s always been talent in that big lean frame of Valseur Lido’s and boy did it shine through at Down Royal on Saturday. He put in an exquisite round of jumping and an all round professional and polished performance to land the G1 JNWine Chase and stamp himself down as potentially a serious Cheltenham Gold Cup performer.
It was easily a career best effort from the 7yo on the figures, pulling in an RPR of 171 for his victory, the first time he has breached the 170 mark on that scale. It was still a bit away from the 178 figure Don Cossack fired in when winning the race last term but The Don already had a pipe-opener in the bank before landing the 2015 JNWine Chase, Valseur Lido, on the other hand, was making his seasonal debut and there’s every reason to believe he will improve for the run.
This was only his 4th start over 3m+ and he now has figures of 1FU1 over staying trips, figures that could arguably be 1F11 had he not thrown away a race winning chance by un-shipping Ruby Walsh at the last when in full control of the Irish Hennessy.
There’s one major factor that I like to consider for the Gold Cup and that’s a horse’s Dosage figures. If there is one race on the jumping calendar that holds up on that angle year upon year then it’s the Gold Cup. You need a Dosage rating that firmly sits in the stamina side to take chasing’s blue ribbon event and year upon year the winners fit in within the same constraints.
Without going into too much detail I want the Gold Cup contenders to fit the following parameters…


DP 15 of last 15 had 8 points or more in DP

DI 13 of last 15 had a DI of 0.90 or below


CD 13 of last 15 had a CD of 0.08 or below



Valseur Lido holds the following Dosage figures…


DP = 2-1-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.83



Only 6 points in his DP is a big negative for a race such as the Gold Cup.
That almost instantly puts me off him for the race.
Add in the fact that I’m inclined to think he’s marginally better on Right-Handed tracks (he’s now 6/11 RH compared to 1/6 LH – over fences he is 4/8 RH – 0/4 LH) and I’m lukewarm at best on his Cheltenham Gold Cup chances.
He’ll surely win more races this term, I’ve no doubt about that, but I’d be surprised should he cap his season with the Gold Cup crown.


Valseur Lido is a damn fine beast but I have my reservations over him for the Gold Cup…
 
Of the two races that didn't fit the DI and CD I'm pretty sure it was Kauto Star's two wins.

Would anyone have discounted him from winning because of this?
 
I think most elements of form study - be it time, stats, trends, dosage, lb-per-length handicapping, yardstick handicapping, whatever - are going to put you on a lot more losers, than they are winners, if you view them in isolation.

The game is far too subtle for such a black-and-white view, as the one expressed above, imo.
 
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Grasshopper said:
I think most elements of form study - be it time, stats, trends, dosage, lb-per-length handicapping, yardstick handicapping, whatever - are going to put you on a lot more losers, than they are winners, if you view them in isolation.
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Punters (including myself) often believe in something though (or some form method), as that's part of our fun.

One mans logic is another mans form of mental illness I guess.
 
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Despite my previous comment I do believe in dosage as part of an approach in specific circumstances.

Before the conditions changed, it regularly put me onto big priced winners and placed horses in the NH Chase. You could genuinely discount eighty percent of the field and back the value, including perceived no hopers.

These days the NH Chase is won by horses that have significantly more class, and the out and out stayers are just blown away.

In terms of the Gold Cup and Kauto Star's dosage not fitting the normal profile, he was an absolute freak, but you also have to look at dosage in the overall profile of the race.

In the case of Valseur Lido, he's beginning to prove his dosage may be misleading. However, I still suspect there will be two or three that'll line up on the day and out stay him. But as I said, you have to look at the context of the race. If there's no Coneygree, Thistlecrack, Djakadam, etc, he can still win. Putting dosage up in November to say he cant win in March is pretty worthless.
 
The Dosage Index (DI) and the Centre of Distribution (CD) are the best guides; these can be identical in several Horses, yet arrived at in a myriad of ways.
Valseur Lido has identical DI and CD's as Desert Orchid.
Forgive N Forget only had 4 points in his DP.
Regards Max
 
i think the LH/RH issue is more relevant than dosage on this one..but rather than just using "wins" its worth looking at the oppo beaten IV..above 1.00 shows runs better than odds suggest..below 1.00 shows an underperformance against odds

Valseur Lido

Left Handed 0.66
Right Handed 1.18

I'd be more swayed by that than dosage tbh..it doesn't mean it can't win LH..but it does say RH is the favoured way round
 
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