The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Spoken like a true value seeker, Euro - particularly considering he posted a new pb on his last return from a long absence. :)
Tbf, I love Coneygree to bits, and there are sound reasons to believe he may even surpass his GC win this season. Cue Card has questions to answer from both his last 2 runs, Silviniaco similarly, and the rest aren't near enough in the same ball park to warrant consideration. The only slight doubt I see is the lack of a proper stamina test, and I'd be sure connections are fully alive to that possibility.
 
I plan to look at the race in more depth today but having had concerns about Coneygree's fitness after his layoff I'm warming to the idea that this is a very serious target for him.

I fully expect Cue Card to leave his Charlie Hall form as far behind as he did last year.

I see Paul Kealy tips Silviniaco Conti on the basis that he travelled much better the other week than last season thereby offering grounds for optimism that he is as good as ever.

It could be quite a race.
 
I have long suspected the RP office gets 'special' word from certain sources (hence the success of some unfathomable selections for Segal and Kealy among others) so I can't help thinking Nicholls has said more to them than he has in public about SC.

My own gut tells me the same as you, though, Euronymous.
 
granger said:
If you believed in the Bounce theory, tomorrow could be fine but Kempton the worry
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Yes, that would be my worry too, unless he's already had the equivalent of a proper race in private.

The theory suggests six weeks is required fully to recover from a peak effort on return to action. The gap to the King George is only 37 days so it could be touch and go unless, as I say, he's done more at home or on his racecourse visits than the likes of Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti did at Wetherby and Down Royal respectively.

I do hope the ground doesn't spoil the weekend.
 
It's hard not to be a big fan of Coneygree considering the problems he's faced, his attitude to the game, the small-time connections and of course the fact that he won the Gold Cup as a novice.

but even if he was 100% back to the form of two seasons ago surely that wouldn't be good enough to beat Cue Card. During the 14/15 season he beat Dell' Arca a little over a length on his fences debut, Warden Hill (who ?) in the Kauto Star (when admittedly his aggressive front running style forced errors from the likes of Saphir Du Rheu and Sausalito Sunrise), Houblon Des Obeaux and Unioniste (in receipt of weight) in the Denman chase and then culminating in the defeat of then 6 year old Djakadam, Road To Riches, Holywell and On His Own in the Gold Cup.

I'm not in any way crabbing him because he was a joy to behold that year but put last year's Cue Card up against any of those horses over 3m round Haydock and you'd have to think they wouldn't see which way he went.

The only slight concern with Cue Card is how much the three big festivals took it out of him at the back end of last season. Even Hendo said in the Sprinter Sacre interview last weekend that he'll never know whether it was winning all three in 2013 that contributed to the great horse's problems the following season.

Cue Card had clearly had enough by Punchestown (even Sprinter didn't exactly sparkle there) and I'm not paying too much attention to his defeat in the Charlie Hall as the tactics went wrong and he looked to me to blow up, so I'd be pretty sure he'd come on significantly for the run.

It's just whether Tizzard has him back to the form of last season. If he has he wins tomorrow, regardless of whether a 100% Coneygree turns up and at decent odds against I'm prepared to pay to find out.
 
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Pretty much how I view the race, Lee.

When the word 'Soft' doesn't appear anywhere in the going description, Cue Card generally runs below par, and I'm quite happy to forgive both Punchestown and Wetherby efforts.

I think he will come on a ton from the Charlie Hall, and the only thing that has me mildly concerned, is that the one time he has run with the word 'Heavy' in the description (2012 King George), it was also a below-par effort......though that could be explained by the fact that it was before Tizzard sorted-out his wind. I do hope Coneygree runs well and comes through the race unscathed, but I reckon he has a job on to win, if Cue Card runs within a handful of lbs of his best.
 
Grasshopper said:
Pretty much how I view the race, Lee.

When the word 'Soft' doesn't appear anywhere in the going description, Cue Card generally runs below par, and I'm quite happy to forgive both Punchestown and Wetherby efforts.

I think he will come on a ton from the Charlie Hall, and the only thing that has me mildly concerned, is that the one time he has run with the word 'Heavy' in the description (2012 King George), it was also a below-par effort......though that could be explained by the fact that it was before Tizzard sorted-out his wind. I do hope Coneygree runs well and comes through the race unscathed, but I reckon he has a job on to win, if Cue Card runs within a handful of lbs of his best.
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I heard ruby saying that he would be concerned about CC's head carriage in the Charlie hall, suggesting he could have breathing trouble again like when he threw away that king George.

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The messing with Aidan Coleman is pathetic for Coneygree's connections. If Dickie had other horses he was loyal to then they shouldn't had let him ride Coneygree in that race regardless. Then he would've learned some respect and next time when he's asked to ride the GC winner he wouldn't have found excuses. Whats the point of involving another jockey in this?! If he would've got injured or couldn't make it to the course then sure, but when he's choosing another horse in the same ******* race, its insulting to be asked back riding yours! I want Coneygree to win so badly but if he gets beat then I'll feel some satisfaction for the horrible way his connections treated Aidan.
 
What a load of cobblers, Aughex. Johnson wouldn't have been near the ride himself, if NdB wasn't injured, and Coleman will see this as nothing more than a possibility, that has quickly evaporated.

Jockey's take each others rides all the time when injury intervenes. It's part of the game, and they very rarely get upset when they are jocked-off a horse....and almost never when they're jocked-off a horse they should never have been on in the first place. For all you know, Coleman might have been told that he would be stood-down again, if Jonners came available.
 
Grasshopper said:
Pretty much how I view the race, Lee.

When the word 'Soft' doesn't appear anywhere in the going description, Cue Card generally runs below par, and I'm quite happy to forgive both Punchestown and Wetherby efforts.

I think he will come on a ton from the Charlie Hall, and the only thing that has me mildly concerned, is that the one time he has run with the word 'Heavy' in the description (2012 King George), it was also a below-par effort......though that could be explained by the fact that it was before Tizzard sorted-out his wind. I do hope Coneygree runs well and comes through the race unscathed, but I reckon he has a job on to win, if Cue Card runs within a handful of lbs of his best.
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Methinks today's ground's a serious concern for Cue Card. Watching back his only run on hvy, he belted the first 2 before breathing was ever likely to be an issue. and didn't jump with his customary elan throughout.
Genuinely hope I'm wrong as it would detract from what promises to be a real thriller.
 
Yep.

Watched a bit of Haydock yesterday, and there was a lot of standing water on the course, and it seems to have taken more overnight. I would be kidding myself on if I said I wasn't concerned about the ground. I suspect I'll know my fate early on - one way or the other.
 
I'm pretty surprised Coneygree isn't favourite. If he was trained by Nicholls he would be odds on. Track and absence would be the concerns but his first time out record is undefeated and Kempton is pretty tight and he destroyed the Feltham field there. Biggest bet of the NH season so far for me.
 
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