The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Everyone is entitled to decide for themselves whether Cue Card stays or not, Euro, but why are you so hot on Djak's?

He's beaten twice in the race, and one-paced at the business-end both times. Have you considered that he doesn't stay well enough to win a Gold Cup? For me, I'd rather take my chances with Cue Card's proven class and outstanding question around trip, than cross my fingers and hope that it's this time for Djakadam.
 
I've had 2 antepost bets for this, one after the festival this year and one in early November. As It stands now, in my own mind I'm still happy with these selections.

The first is Thistlecrack at 7/1. It will all be down to the jumping really & what type of experience he has either in the KG or the new year! If he can live with that he will take some stopping.

The second is Valseur Lido ew at 25/1 obviously representing a lot more value. After VL won at a hack around Down Royal he got cut to 12s. He beat nothing there, the only others of note were SC who's past it & DP who didn't want to know but he won it like a horse with a touch of class. I think after Leopardstown on the 28th Dec that will be cut further as he holds a favourites chance of winning what looks like a good Lexus. He was aimed at the wrong race last year & now it's quite he needs at least 3m. He would've absolutely pissed the Irish Hennessey but for unseating Ruby at the last still hard on the bridle! Carlingford Lough went on to run a very creditable 4th in the GC so that run alone puts him right in the mix.

Of the others I don't think CC will stay up the hill. Plenty have come to the last tanking and tackled that hill only to get very weary. One man, Florida Pearl, SIlvinaco Conti to name just a few have all cried mercy on that hill!! I still laugh when Paddy Brennan in interviews even now speaks about how unlucky they were last year not to win a GC....they still had 2 to jump and that hill to climb!! It wasn't like the horse slipped up in the shadow of the post!!

Don Cossack is trying to win 2 on the trot which seems near impossible these days. Not since Best Mate has this been achieved and not even the brilliant Kauto Star could manage it. Add into the mix he's also coming back from a career threatening injury which makes it twice as hard so that rules him out.

Coneygree will be trying to do what only Kauto Star has done in regaining the crown again after losing it!! Factor in his injury and the Bradstocks comments and concerns about ground conditions and I don't believe we're talking about the horse of 2014/2015. Haydock was to soft, Kempton could be too good so he could soend xmas in his box!! Sarah Bradstock basically said he now needs good/soft ground. That tells me his legs are dodgy and with his style of running that can't be good. That rules another one out.

Djakadam is a horse I've a lot of respect for but really he's been there and bought the T-Shirt, twice, but still come up short. I think he'll find at least one too good again this year. I think they may well have the winner in similar colours in their yard but alas we'll have to wait until next year.




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How odd I don't recall you even mentioning the horse let alone backing him 8 months ago at the best price he ever was...........Be careful no one accuses you of aftertiming, lying or BS.I of course couldn't possible comment on that but some might :cool:
 
RP description of Cue Card in 2016 GC: 'travelling well and fell 3 out'.
RP description of Silviniaco Conti in 2013 GC: 'travelling well and fell 3 out'. The next year he came up the hill like a drunk and it's easy to see Cue Card doing the same but there are so many doubts about the other market leaders that he should probably be favourite.
All about opinions but, as it stands:
Thistlecrack - smashing horse but only even money to run so 7/2 is crazy.
Coneygree - they never come back.
Don Cossack - they never come back.
Djakadam - likely to run his race but also, like many French imports, likely to have already reached his peak so place at best.
Douvan - would win easily if allowed to take his chance but may have to wait a year.

That leaves Valseur Lido the ew value if you must have a bet 3 months ahead.
 
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I'm not sure how much of this Cue Card non stayer rubbish I can listen to (or read for the pedants). Are we just calling it coincidence that ever since his breathing op he's never shown any evidence of lacking for stamina? Age is a doubt admittedly but stamina...no.

I'd struggle to back The Don this time around. The best we can hope for is to see him once prior to March and I don't think there's anything he could do in that prep to convince me to back him unless he sprouts wings.
 
I'm no sectionals expert but isn't the idea to stop faster than everything else? It could be argued Don Cossack was getting there but it was a very tired fall.
 
It was but he was staying on and like Vautour the course didn't suit him. Over 2f further I just can't see Cue Card holding them all off.
 
TheBear said:
I'm not sure how much of this Cue Card non stayer rubbish I can listen to (or read for the pedants). Are we just calling it coincidence that ever since his breathing op he's never shown any evidence of lacking for stamina? Age is a doubt admittedly but stamina...no.

I'd struggle to back The Don this time around. The best we can hope for is to see him once prior to March and I don't think there's anything he could do in that prep to convince me to back him unless he sprouts wings.
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Agreed
 
Grasshopper said:
Everyone is entitled to decide for themselves whether Cue Card stays or not, Euro, but why are you so hot on Djak's?
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The biggest reason is price. He was massive overs when I got the odds I did on Betfair.

I think he ran a gigantic race two years ago and don't think he was onepaced. Coneygree set a Denman type test that day and Djakadam did not crack. He was three lengths back at the last and got beat less than two, he put a couple of lengths into Road to Riches in the last 100 yards. I think the standard of that race was very good and the only reason it hasn't been franked since as much as it warranted is because Holywell is trained by a jackass and R2R was given a horrible campaign in 2015/16

Last year he wasn't quite as good but had far from an ideal prep.
 
Tanlic said:
How odd I don't recall you even mentioning the horse let alone backing him 8 months ago at the best price he ever was...........Be careful no one accuses you of aftertiming, lying or BS.I of course couldn't possible comment on that but some might :cool:
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7/1 isn't the best price Thistlecrack has been for the Gold Cup. I'm on at 14/1.
 
Exactly. And I hardly think a relatively tame bet (it was antepost) at the time warranted coming on here shouting about it!! Actually I don't think I posted here after the festival in March until recently!!

From a financial point of view in would be much more in my interest to see VL win.


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archie said:
RP description of Cue Card in 2016 GC: 'travelling well and fell 3 out'.
RP description of Silviniaco Conti in 2013 GC: 'travelling well and fell 3 out'. The next year he came up the hill like a drunk and it's easy to see Cue Card doing the same but there are so many doubts about the other market leaders that he should probably be favourite.
All about opinions but, as it stands:
Thistlecrack - smashing horse but only even money to run so 7/2 is crazy.
Coneygree - they never come back.
Don Cossack - they never come back.
Djakadam - likely to run his race but also, like many French imports, likely to have already reached his peak so place at best.
Douvan - would win easily if allowed to take his chance but may have to wait a year.

That leaves Valseur Lido the ew value if you must have a bet 3 months ahead.
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Lotta things worth debating ....You got Douvan right, no debate required Archie:) Just because you don't read about it on the front pages doesn't mean horses don't come back. Many do and some like Denman and Sprinter hit the headlines. The former you can argue he wasn't at his best in the Gold Cup when 2nd to Kauto but the form book in it's purest form through Neptune Collonges who he finished 7 lengths in front off says he was exactly the same horse. Should have won the Bowl and did win the Hennessy with 11stone12lbs before old age caught up on him. Sprinter's comeback completed with one of his best ever performance at Sandown when he looked as good as ever.

Can't really say anything new about Don Coassack time will tell but Coneygree is already back and ran a cracker the other day. The question with him has got to be is he good enough even at his best? Neither has been off long enough for it to be of huge concern if the legs stand up they could easily be as good as ever.

The comparison between SC and CC is a bit silly.....no it's nuts!!!!!!!!

As for Valseur Lido fir the best part he's raced over 2m4f and there's absolutely no evidence he will stay 3m2f round Cheltenham. So far his form doesn't look anywhere near good enough. 2nd to Vautour who Cue Card beat and 2nd to Menorah??? Now he's heading for the Lexus for what should be a walkover again and we will be none the wiser if De Bromhead has improved him or not.......I'd rather take the 2/1 for the Lexus and have 250 quid on than have 20 quid on at 25/1...more chance of a payout imo
 
Ricko said:
7/1 isn't the best price Thistlecrack has been for the Gold Cup. I'm on at 14/1.
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Of course you are and I took 20/1 :0)

However I find it odd that on the very day you said he would be beaten in the World Hurdle and I said he was my best bet of the day you backed him to win the Gold Cup. Fair play to you but really mentioning prices after the fact 9 months down the line does not impress me unless you mentioned it at the time.

Happy Punting
 
Calm yersail doon, Tanlic.

I know a few boys who took early prices about Thistlecrack for the Gold Cup*. Those that have done so realise it's a speculative punt, and hardly something they are going to 'tip' on a racing forum. There's no need to be giving KA (or anyone else) a hard time, just for mentioning the fact they rolled the dice.

* I am not one of them. I think they're certifiable myself. :lol:
 
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Grasshopper said:
Calm yersail doon, Tanlic.

I know a few boys who took early prices about Thistlecrack for the Gold Cup*. Those that have done so realise it's a speculative punt, and hardly something they are going to 'tip' on a racing forum. There's no need to be giving KA (or anyone else) a hard time, just for mentioning the fact they rolled the dice.

* I am not one of them. I think they're certifiable myself. :lol:
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I backed him in March....
 
Tanlic said:
Of course you are and I took 20/1 :0)

However I find it odd that on the very day you said he would be beaten in the World Hurdle and I said he was my best bet of the day you backed him to win the Gold Cup. Fair play to you but really mentioning prices after the fact 9 months down the line does not impress me unless you mentioned it at the time.

Happy Punting
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Tanlic said:
Ricko said:
2qxc6l0.jpg
[/QUO

I'l give you what you have in your head for it lol

Looks like Bet365 colours???

WIN AND EACHWAY???? 100 to return 1500.

Enlighten me ?
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Bet365, yes.

It's a £100 win bet, that's just what the receipt says, bizarrely. I'm sure you can work out what 100 multiplied by 14, plus the stake adds up to.

Still, I accept your forthcoming apology.
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It seems all Antepost Win bets on Bet365 say "win and each way" under them. Here's the Candy Boy bet I placed yesterday with my odd £6.67 :D

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