The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Euronymous said:
Seriously? That's no sort of argument. It's the form he's achieved not the form figures.

Honestly he should be fav at this point.
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Fav? On what grounds? Coneygree kicked his arse, Cue Card kicked his arse, Don Cossack kicked his arse! I'd love you as my bookie, there is no argument in any world that should make him fav.
The fact that he's never won a chase outside of Ireland is hugely relevant, surely you can see that?
Or will The Gold Cup be a **** race just because you haven't backed the winner, as other threads would suggest?
 
Coneygree beaten him a length, has been injured since and will probably need soft ground

Cue Card has never beaten him at Cheltenham. Cheltenham is what counts, not a ******* dog track like Aintree.

Don Cossack has had a bad injury and who knows if he will be the same.

So Djakadam has the least question marks at this stage. He's healthy, he's made the last two Gold Cup's, and he battled on when lesser chasers would have been demolished by the pace Coneygree set a couple of years back.

If they all line up and consolidate their profiles no I would not make Djakadam fav in that race, but at this stage I would.

And your last line is unwarranted and makes you look like a dick. Less of it.
 
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Tiggers
I have my reservations about Djak actually winning but not without serious chance.

Lets go with the 3 you have mentioned. Coneygree beat him as a 6yr old on testing ground. A bit has happened since then. Throw in the ground.

Cue Card, Long way from home last season. He'll be 11 also.

Now for Don. The lad has been out injured.
 
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Cheltenham is what counts only if we know that the rest don't handle the track, otherwise the form is what counts and Aintree form or end of season form, unlike the myth, matters alot!! Don's form 2 years ago at Aintree and P'town was what made him the highest rated chaser for the last 2 seasons and that proved decisive in winning the GC last year.

Djak looked very ordinary against Sub L and Outlander, you can't make a horse like that fav for the GC. Not when there's two previous champions in the mix, with injury or not they're still possible runners at this moment. When throwing in CC who can't be dismissed given that he ran to his best just LTO. Then we have TC who's a hell of a stayer and if he'll be able to translate his form into chasing then he'll be right up there going at the last. So no, Djak might've been the value bet at 16/1, but its insane making him fav, he has no claims.

Oh and when Coneygree turns around the form at Christmas, he should become fav or 2nd after the unknown TC. If Don returns well in January he should also be made fav or 2nd. That won't happen though.
 
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Aughex said:
Cheltenham is what counts if we know that the rest don't handle the track, otherwise the form is what counts and Aintree form or end of season form, unlike the myth, matters alot!! Don's form 2 years ago at Aintree and P'town was what made him the highest rated chaser for the last 2 seasons and that proved decisive in winning the GC last year.
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What proved decisive is he lucked out in getting a small field. Djakadam is trained to peak at Cheltenham, much like Denman was.
 
the only peak Djak will be doing is peek at their backs. He could only win this if all 3-4 horses will run below par. He'll be a standard GC winner in any other year but sorry he can't be considered for favouritism with his form and known class. If RR wants to win the GC he should send his best horse for that and stop wasting time over 2 miles hurdles. RR only wants a shot and with Djak thats what he gets, nothing more with all the quality stayers that we currently have.
 
Frankel, that argument is rusted mate, I and many other Don fans have argued against it well before he won the GC. Guess who was proved right?
 
I admit that but that was why I backed him at the start of the season.

And I would say 2, not 3 or 4. Cue Card will fall in a whole up the hill, not scared of him at all. That leaves Don C and Coneygree, a couple of very possible sicknotes.
 
I don't have much faith in CC either on that hill after 3m2f+. But as a bookie who would want to lay him after what he did lto? he proved he's in form of his life, or equal to that, so who knows. My argument was only about Djak the right to being fav, not his winning chances or value play given that he may very likely be placed again.
 
It's very harsh to criticise Djakadam for his run at the weekend since it was over 2 and a half miles. If I had backed him for the GC prior to that race I'd be very satisfied with that performance.

I get the arguments put forward about him being value based on the question marks surrounding the others but look at it this way, you're hoping for none of those 4 to turn up in top form. This I believe is very unlikely. If you've got 4/1 a place then fair play, there's no question that is value.
 
You would be very foolish to write off Djak. Everything else has plenty to prove. I still don't think Cue Card will stay, Coneygree is trained by lunatics (and i love the horse), and Thistle has done nothing but a couple of schooling rounds.
 
What is the relevance of Djakadam never having won in England?

Does it mean he underperforms over there? Hardly, because his two highest rated performances have come in the Gold Cup.
 
Euronymous said:
Coneygree beaten him a length, has been injured since and will probably need soft ground Agree

Cue Card has never beaten him at Cheltenham. Cheltenham is what counts, not a ******* dog track like Aintree. They only met once at Cheltenham and Cue Card was cantering all over him when he fell. Unlike Djak Cue Card did win at The Festival

Don Cossack has had a bad injury and who knows if he will be the same. That bad injury you speak of happened around the 22nd of April and sidelined him for not much more than a long summer break (6 months) He has been back in work, according to Elliot doing plenty of it, for the last 2 months. If he keeps going he could probably run in January but as a precaution they are aiming for Feb........It's extremely unusual a horse would lose his ability during a short breaks like that and if he's back working without a worry, as Elliot claims, it's far from serious.

So Djakadam has the least question marks at this stage. He's healthy, he's made the last two Gold Cup's, and he battled on when lesser chasers would have been demolished by the pace Coneygree set a couple of years back. There are 4 horses capable of beating him with ease Coneygree Thistlecrack Cue Card and Don Cossack plus a few others that if close enough would probably outrun him to the line. If you think all 4 won't turn up I suggest you back the horse but that is a huge if and it could be ust as easy him that doesn't turn up

If they all line up and consolidate their profiles no I would not make Djakadam fav in that race, but at this stage I would.

And your last line is unwarranted and makes you look like a dick. Less of it.
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Best outsider....I could see the race fall to something like Carlingford Lough if he could only keep tabs on them
 
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Impossible to write-off Djakadam, given there are question marks against the other principals, but there is no way he should be favourite for the Gold Cup.

For me, too much is being made of Cue Card's stamina. Granted, there is a question to be answered about the trip, but that is a different thing to there being a doubt about the trip.

The way CC finished the last King George suggests that he wants every yard of 3m+ these days, and to dismiss him as a Ryanair type that just happens to get a bit further is a mistake, in my view. In all likelihood, he is now a thorough stayer, who could probably drop back down to the Ryanair trip, and still put the shi*tters up them.

For my money, he should really be clear favourite for the Gold Cup, and it's an utter farce that Thistlecrack is less than half the price in some places. I'm quite confident that we will look back on the 11/4 currently on offer about Cue Card's stablemate, and recall it as possibly the worst value-for-money price in the history of ante-post betting.
 
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I agree Cue Card should be favourite as I still have severe doubts about Thistlecrack running in the Gold Cup and even if he does he'll find it a ton tougher than what he is used to. Not every novice can step up like Coneygree did..........very few can.

Thistlecrack 10/1 RSA tempts me...as low as 3/1 for the race elsewhere.I wonder if that will still be available if Cue Card hacks up in the King George in the same fashion as he won the Betfair?
 
Has Tizzard emphatically ruled-out the RSA?

If so, he'd be better investing it on Valseur Lido at similar prices for the big one. :D
 
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Digger said:
Why wont he go RSA ?
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He was sent chasing for one purpose only - if he puts in a performance that means he won't be aimed at the GC, it will have meant that he bombed somewhere in-between and likely wouldn't win an RSA either

World Hurdle becomes his race again then, but am pretty sure he'll line up in the GC at this stage
 
Thistlecrack would be the first WH winner ever to win a Gold Cup.

Last one that was aimed in that direction was My Way De Solzen

Unlike Thistlecrack he had proved himself a worthy challenger over fences having won the Arkle

The following season they decided to go for the Betfair Chase and take on Kauto Star and Exotic Dance before taking in the King George,

Kauto Star went off at 4/5 and MWDS who had a huge fan base talking Gold Cup went ff at 11/4.

Beaten 42 lengths then PU in the King George he went back to contest the WH again but was never the same horse again...He did win again after he left Alan King in P2P.

Thistlecrack may look a better horse might even be a better horse but his lack of experience must be a huge worry.

Thistlecrack and Douvan are the most talked about horses in training at the moment but they are like chalk and cheese

For me it is Douvan who will prove the better and if Willie Mullins had his way he'd be heading for the Gold Cup and not the QMCC

I say that because he hinted as much in an interview but said the choice would be Ricci.

Douvan is a beautifully relaxed horse with an engine like Sprinter Sacre but if Sprinter had 3 gears Douvan has 4 he really could be that good.

Thistlecrack is different and is far from relaxed, he is a fireball who gives the impression he just wants to get on with it and eat everything in front of him, horses and fences alike. When he takes off, so far nothing has been able to stay with him. Personally I find him very hard to judge because his form is so damn ordinary even if he is not.

With Douvan it's easy and IMO the class is unmistakable and indisputable. He is to me the best horse in training and maybe the best I have ever seen

With Thistlecrack it's harder because of his foot to the pedal style of running. Alpha Des Obeaux and Shanehill have done absolutely nothing to frank his hurdle form they are very ordinary horse and thinking about him going head to head with stable companion Cue Card worries the hell out of me. I have used the phrase often but I think Thistlecrack would think he'd gone into Orbit and would have no chance round Kempton.

As for the Gold Cup the trip has never been a problem with Cue Card. Cue Card has a chink in his armour that has always been there. For some reason he empties sometimes and stops like shot but he's been doing it for years at all trips. Cast your mind back to the International Hurdle when he took it up 2 out cruising... Punters counting their cash....jump the last and Boom! Nothing went flat as a pancake. He did the same thing in the King George when galloping all over S Conti then stopped like he had hit a brick wall.........answer doesn't stay!! I put up the same argument then that it is a glitch in his make up nothing to do with him staying and I think it's fair to say he proved it to be correct when looking like he needed 4 miles when catching Vautour on the line.

As for the Hill? Look back at the Ryanair if he does stay the hill holds no fears.

Again like Grassy I think he should be clear fav at least until we see how the King george goes and whether Don Cossack returns or not. If the latter returns I would again be supporting him.
 
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Tanlic said:
As for the Hill? Look back at the Ryanair if he does stay the hill holds no fears.
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The hill held no fears for One Man when he went for the QM, and if the Ryanair had been around for longer no doubt Florida Pearl would have ate that race up. It's the combination of hill and trip that will find Cue Card out.

And comparing MWDS to Thistlecrack is like comparing Rock on Ruby to Moscow Flyer because they had a season or two in open company over hurdles before going chasing.
 
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