The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

@Grass, its not about the horse I made that abundantly clear, I was talking about the guts of some racehorse owners to take on the hype and today Many Cloud's connection succeeded against TC. Imagine if they all ran scared and we were left with TC and some average rated ones like Douvan has been racing his entire career and is about to in the CC. Because without a strong defense like UDS in there, thats what we'll all get. If you're enjoying that then good for you, but look what a great race we got today(before the finish line) when there's some competition. Plus hyping horses up on here and TV is annoying as hell to me personally.
 
Aughex said:
@Grass, its not about the horse I made that abundantly clear, I was talking about the guts of some racehorse owners to take on the hype and today Many Cloud's connection succeeded against TC. Imagine if they all ran scared and we were left with TC and some average rated ones like Douvan has been racing his entire career and is about to in the CC. Because without a strong defense like UDS in there, thats what we'll all get. If you're enjoying that then good for you, but look what a great race we got today(before the finish line) when there's some competition. Plus hyping horses up on here and TV is annoying as hell to me personally.
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You really don't get it Augie honestly you don't. Read and learn man.

Thistlecrack is a racey fireball type of animal who puts in his all even when he's cantering he's racing inside. As I have said before what you see is what you get

You should face facts it is him who has never been tested until today.

Everything about the King George said he was flattered. The proximity of the others to Cue Card suggested he had run a stinker. The fact he covered the last 3/4 mile 2 seconds slower than the novice Might Bite....the evidence was all there.

I am not saying this because he was beaten today you go back a page or two and it's all there.

Douvan is a completely different type. He's totally relaxed does nothing extravagant at his fences yet nothing can lay a glove on him. Despite his size when on the few occasions over fences he's been ask to quicken he has an engine that Arkle himself would be proud of. He has a greyhound type stride and covers and enormous amount of ground and some would be taking two strides to his one.

Unlike others I am not going to say Sizing John is top class..he's no Altior or a Vautour but that with this horse doesn't matter. It him, the way he handles himself and you just know this is one very special horse.

As for Thistlecrack I'm sorry but if Many Clouds (RIP) could do that to him over that trip what will the likes of Djakadam and his own stable companion do to him over 2 furlongs longer?

I reckon the bubble is burst he's not the next coming and he should be twice his current odds in the Gold Cup. If it turns up soft native River will destroy him IMO
 
Minella Rocco might be worth a few quid for this if we form the option that the unfortunate Many Clouds found improvement from his wind op this season. He's still 33/1 with Will Hill who have some bizarre insurance offer. If he misses the festival it's a full refund and if he runs in another race it's money back as a free bet.

Lines through Many Clouds and Native River give him a much bigger chance than 33's.
 
I never liked people thinking Thistle after 4 runs was better than Kauto et al.

Racing needed a superstar and he was accelerated.

Today was an incredible showing from a novice, it really was but Kauto you are not
 
TheBear said:
Minella Rocco might be worth a few quid for this if we form the option that the unfortunate Many Clouds found improvement from his wind op this season. He's still 33/1 with Will Hill who have some bizarre insurance offer. If he misses the festival it's a full refund and if he runs in another race it's money back as a free bet.

Lines through Many Clouds and Native River give him a much bigger chance than 33's.
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Jonjo could turn out Minella Rocco 110% fit and win the race then get stuffed the next week he has a great record of getting them there spot on. You could do worse.

A horse that I would normally give no chance to is Don Poli if only he could find a bit more mid race pace.

It's just not lines through Many Clouds that has me thinking it's just one of these years when there's nothing you can back with a lot of confidence.

Thistlecrack has been caught out at what i suspect is less than Gold Cup pace and nothing has outstanding form
 
Tanlic said:
Jonjo could turn out Minella Rocco 110% fit and win the race then get stuffed the next week he has a great record of getting them there spot on. You could do worse.

A horse that I would normally give no chance to is Don Poli if only he could find a bit more mid race pace.

It's just not lines through Many Clouds that has me thinking it's just one of these years when there's nothing you can back with a lot of confidence.

Thistlecrack has been caught out at what i suspect is less than Gold Cup pace and nothing has outstanding form
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Watching the race live I came away elated at one of the best performances by a true old timer v the young upstart. Obviously the following events makes you take stock.
However Many Clouds went out on his shield and had his imo finest hour today.
Unfortunately in this sport our heros die
Move on and celebrate an amazing horse
 
Its good Tanlic you're willing to admit that you won't replicate the Sizing John champion or top class trolling, that would be too easy.. problem with Douvan was from the start to take on good animals so I can join your side, all I know are 2-3 important facts from his races that tell me he's vulnerable to something with a turn of foot. After UDS won today the ITV were asking why take Douvan on, rather go up in trip, just like the CH4 team after the KG said something similar about TC. I said at the time that the form leaves something to be desired and I didn't think I'd see that proven right until the festival. Sometimes believing in what you're seeing is fooling yourself.
 
I'm totally devastated by the loss of Many Clouds, and with the Gold up and national on the horizon it's unfortunately a case of what if. Which is crazy to say about a National winner.

Absouetly no doubt in my mind, Many Clouds would have been there jumping the last at the festival. Overjoyed when I heard the news he beat TC, followed by the brutal news on 5Live (at work) that he died after the race.
 
interesting reading from the excellent https://twitter.com/StopwatchRacing

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I am always highly sceptical of these how fast they were over the last two fences / three furlongs examples . Horses can be just as much out on their feet after 2 miles at a very fast pace than 3 miles .

The question is for me whether Thistlecrack was indeed outstayed over 3m1f when he will have long to travel in the GC albeit the rail positions apparently made it a long Cotswold Chase yesterday almost up to GC trip .

If so , then the risk is that the GC will be run at just as if not a stronger gallop throughout . Furthermore, Thistlecack's jumping seemed to suffer at the downhill fences in particular at speed . Not a good portent for a novice in the GC .

His engine may see him through but anyone who took a short price after the King George must be feeling rather daft.
 
If there was one good thing to come out of yesterday's race it was that it blew the Gold Cup wide open again.

Thistlecrack is beatable.

Cue Card might be in decline (I don't think so).

Which of the Irish will run (maybe a few more now)?

No shortage of improvers and dark horses.
 
Agreed, DO - it's a very interesting betting heat now.

I figure the market will oppose Thistlecrack on the day, and current prices are for giving a wide berth, if anyone still fancies him. I can see him being a 3/1 shot (maybe bigger) on the day.
 
Ardross said:
I am always highly sceptical of these how fast they were over the last two fences / three furlongs examples . Horses can be just as much out on their feet after 2 miles at a very fast pace than 3 miles .

The question is for me whether Thistlecrack was indeed outstayed over 3m1f when he will have long to travel in the GC albeit the rail positions apparently made it a long Cotswold Chase yesterday almost up to GC trip .

If so , then the risk is that the GC will be run at just as if not a stronger gallop throughout . Furthermore, Thistlecack's jumping seemed to suffer at the downhill fences in particular at speed . Not a good portent for a novice in the GC .

His engine may see him through but anyone who took a short price after the King George must be feeling rather daft.
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Veiwing NH Races via a stop watch is a pretty pointless exercise as - by definition - it takes llttle account of the speed individual obstacles were negotiated or how quickly horses got away from them.
Imo, it's as plain as the nose on my face that Thistlecrack is lacking in both departments (and has been since his first chase) and won't be winning any CGC until he either learns to fence or meets mediocre opposition.
That he's considered to have run the race of his life
 yesterday speaks volumes for the calibre of the tests he has faced previously.
 
What's come to light is The King George, many would now say, was a joke and in his very first real test he lost.

He's a lovely horse got a good chance in the Gold Cup but on a line through Many Clouds and Djakadam or Many Clouds and Cue card in reality he has a stone to find.

Now that was perhaps the best performance of his life yesterday and he could improve on it and still be a factor but 2/1? That is definitely a joke
 
Despite the very very sad end, thought yesterdays race was spellbinding. One of the very best jump races. Its pointless being poetic or anything but twas the best of NH racing.
Credit has to go to Tizzard's. How novel is it to see a horse campaigned to run and see clashes like this throughout the winter. Many Clouds, the archtype staying chaser, could not see him making a mistake, and brave.

Think Thistlecrack is about as likely to win the Gold Cup as before. Think those who were worrying about his jumping can stop now, what will get him beat is the way he tanks through his races. The turn of foot to get back in touch down the inside was something that sets him apart from the likes of Native Ruler and Djakadam. In the ground, against a stayer (and fantastic jumper) it took enough out of him to cause his to falter. His tank gets him 2m6f at full tilt around Kempton. If he can be settled, I think he wins the Gold Cup easily, and has become a price now.
 
Cracking race.
Thistlecrack lost three to four lengths to the leaders after the fourth last and just could not peg the winner back.
Remember the frost covers were down and rain feel after so tough tough going especially against Many Clouds who did not stop.
The lesson is hold bets until you see going on the day as even in March less than half inch of rain can completely change the going as it did in 2015.
Any horse rated 164 plus can win the Gold Cup this year.
 
Haven't been on for a while. Nice to find a discussion that doesn't appear to be suffering with Thistlecrack mania.

The King George was a shocking renewal. Had Cue Card been able to run close to his best he would have won ten lengths. Thistlecrack actually ran to a rating in the low 160's yet those trying to find flagship thought it was a good idea to pretend he was a stone better. He freewheeled away from the opposition over hurdles but that didn't happen at Kempton. Scudamore eased him down to conceal the fact he was running out of petrol. That seemed to fool 99% of people.

Although they wouldn't admit it connections knew there was stamina issue yesterday. That is why they dropped him in. His jumping wasn't a complete disaster but he isn't fluent and he uses up too much energy. Those who gave Thistlecrack the massive figures are no doubt trying to suggest Many Clouds managed a career best. I doubt that very much and it was far more likely another low 160's performance.

Unless something goes drastically wrong with the opposition then Thistlecrack will not win a Gold Cup. He hasn't got stamina and his jumping isn't good enough. He might jump better if sent forward but Scudamore cannot do that because of the stamina issue. Good ground isn't going to help that much because a faster pace is likely to create even more of a stamina test.

Sadly, Thistlecrack will be remembered as a much better staying hurdler than chaser and the winner of a very poor King George. In hindsight it was a masterstroke targeting that race.
 
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