The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

I've just spent the last half-hour watching re-runs of Bristol De Mai's Haydock win. The more I see it the more impressed I am.

He strikes me as a very, very serious tool.
 
Judging by his recent selection in the Ante-Post competition, I suspect Tout Seul agrees with you, DO.

I remain a bit of a sceptic myself. The French horse (co-fave) didn't run his race, next in the betting Definitely Red has sucked more money out of Northern wallets over the years, than a JJD sports hyper-market, and the rest were all largely-exposed handicappers prepping for the Nash, rather than the Gold Cup.

That said, whilst I question whether he has the class, I don't question his stamina, and in a race that doesn't look big on really thorough-stayers, he can perhaps make his presence felt, somewhere near the business-end. I think he'd need a few to under-form to get in the places - which isn't entirely impossible, I suppose.
 
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I'm of the opinion that the beaten horses weren't largely exposed handicappers preparing for the National. I'm of the opinion they were off for their lives here but were not only simply unable to go with Bristol De Mai up the straight they were unable to get him off the bit.

The form in behind stacks up, in my opinion, and I've actually up-rated the winner by another 2lbs to account for his being eased down on the run-in (was ten lengths in front of the riderless Sausalito Sunrise, eased to four).
 
Each to their own, DO, but I can't have it myself.

The five horses who followed him home had almost 50 chase runs between them beforehand, and only one of them was under 9yo. Whilst their win-ratios are perfectly-reasonable, you would be hard-pushed to suggest any of them were progressive, and they strike me more as those types who win on their day, rather than being plotted-up to land a gamble.

Bristol De Mai is undoubtedly better than that, but it looks a freakish result to me, and I'd be disinclined myself, to adopt too strong a position on the back of it.

Yer on much safer-ground wi Brain Power, though! :lol:
 
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On the contrary, GH, I have each of them as progressive to varying degrees.

I admit I tend to 'award' the 'p' and '+' symbols much more readily than the likes of Timeform but I'd argue that I don't do it lightly. I would not have a problem with rating a horse with figures of 140, 143, 130, 143, 125, 145 (for example) as progressive.

In that race I had a majority of the field as progressive, which wouldn't be unusual in a big Saturday handicap. I learned years ago from expensive experience that progression in NH horses is much more prevalent than generally perceived.

I've argued more than once on the forum along the lines of 'take the winner out and...' to see how things stack up. (It wouldn't have to be the winner.) I find it gives me another angle from which to view the form. Sometimes I go with it, sometimes I reject it. Then again, the better the race the more inclined I am to take a positive view, which is the case here.

I don't have any doubt that the likes of Otago Trail, Bishops Road, Definitely Red and Vintage Clouds were seriously trying. I reckon the last three would have finished in a heap for the minor places and their relative form wold have made a lot of sense. Vintage Clouds, I thought, had the steepest curve but also had the most improvement to make but represented the stable that landed a gamble in the race last season. Otago Trail looked for all the world to me like a Williams staying-handicap-in-soft-ground job and would have been a convincing winner even with that mistake two out.

They went very fast early and the pace didn't really relent too much at any stage. There were eight or nine within about eight lengths of each other turning for home, most of them just being asked for their efforts. What happened up the straight sorted the wheat from the chaff. And Bristol De Mai never came out of second gear.

While the bare figure I have doesn't scream 'Gold Cup Winner', it was probably the second-best chasing performance of the season after Cue Card's Aintree win but I have to wonder what BDM had in reserve. It's impossible to quantify but I'm saying every two lengths would be about 1lb in those conditions at that stage of the race. After that I just have to let my imagination rip. He was definitely eased a few lengths. The riderless horse was running on instinct and wouldn't have been easing itself off and BDM was still cruising before he was eased. I have to think what would have happened if Jacob had kicked him on after the last. What about after the second-last? There's no way of knowing, obviously, but the situation is a lot different from one where something is cruising on the steel two out and falls.

Anyway, it's all down to individual interpretation and I'm in horrible form this season so the chances are you're right and I'm wrong but what kind of punter would I be if I didn't have the courage of my convictions? :)
 
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Can't say you're not a trier DO always looking for an angle for apparent no hopers,

Bristol De Mai's performance was either very good or made to look very good I am not sure which....but replace him with Thsitlecrack and that lot wouldn't even have turned up.....same could be said about Djakadam Native River etc etc etc.

I'd want to see him run again over 3 miles and not necessarily in a top class event before passing judgement on him to find out if he really is a 166 + horse or was he flattered due to others running like drains
 
Desert Orchid said:
....what kind of punter would I be if I didn't have the courage of my convictions? :)
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Spot on. We all have to find a way that works for us, and how one assimilates and interprets form, and then applies the results to a betting strategy, is ultimately a very personal thing.......which probably explains how half the barneys we get on here, spin-up in the first place. Call my wife a fat old harpy and I'll be mildly upset, but don't ever dare question how I have rated this Plating hurdle from Ludlow! :lol:

At the very least, BDM adds an extra dimension of interest to the Gold Cup, but I remain sceptical. He has reversed form with Otago Trail, to the tune of not-a-kick-in-the-arse-off two-stone in a handful of weeks, which would have the alarm-bells ringing for me. I generally favour caution anyway, and will only generally award a high-mark if I think the form is genuinely strong....and the Peter Marsh, in my view, doesn't meet that criteria, for the reasons given above.

Good luck with the bet. It now looks like BDM goes to Newbury for the Denman, so at least you will get an opportunity to test your confidence in the form, ahead of the main event. :cool:
 
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Tanlic said:
....but replace him with Thsitlecrack and that lot wouldn't even have turned up.....same could be said about Djakadam Native River etc etc etc.
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Yes, and I think this might actually back up my point. Those horses off 154 would have been handicap certs, something Native River has already proved.

If the others had known beforehand that BDM was going to do that to them they wouldn't have turned up. If I'd known beforehand that BDM was going to do that to them I'd be out investing in another property this week!!
 
Grasshopper said:
Call my wife a fat old harpy and I'll be mildly upset, but don't ever dare question how I have rated this Plating hurdle from Ludlow! :lol:

Good luck with the bet. It now looks like BDM goes to Newbury for the Denman, so at least you will get an opportunity to test your confidence in the form, ahead of the main event. :cool:
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You're married??? :)

I'm actually concerned about the Denman being mooted for BDM. I wanted to see him go straight to Cheltenham. I wouldn't want him over-raced. He could also bounce if he's brought out too soon but maybe he didn't take much out of himself at Haydock. I imagine the Denman will be a sterner test.
 
Ground will probably dictate the chances of Thistlecrack. On decent ground he clearly will have a decent chance.
There will be tons of pace in the race so his stamina will be stretched regardless. Will be fascinating to see how it pans out.
Something held out back could knob the lot of them.
 
Frankel said:
Ground will probably dictate the chances of Thistlecrack. On decent ground he clearly will have a decent chance.
There will be tons of pace in the race so his stamina will be stretched regardless. Will be fascinating to see how it pans out.
Something held out back could knob the lot of them.
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I certainly wouldn't recommend anyone having their lot on Thistlecrack as I have always questioned his ability to handle other chasers at Gold Cup pace.

I worry even more now because the race he lost to Many Clouds was not run at the pace you would expect in a Gold Cup and was actually the slowest run chase of the day.

Can't agree with you Frankel or anyone who suggests good ground will help his cause,he has excellent form on soft and on heavy.

Most of those taking him on don't so good ground certainly won't increase his chance.

Won't help him get the trip either if that is a problem which I don't believe for one minute it is. Good ground faster pace is still one tough stamina test.
 
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Noticed Tom Scu and Colin Tizzard had boarded this particular bandwagon, and were rationalising his defeat away on account of the ground.
He'll still have fences to jump, and - in any normal GC - he'd have to jump them with much more alacrity, and speed, than he showed Saturday
 
Tanlic said:
I certainly wouldn't recommend anyone having their lot on Thistlecrack as I have always questioned his ability to handle other chasers at Gold Cup pace.

I worry even more now because the race he lost to Many Clouds was not run at the pace you would expect in a Gold Cup and was actually the slowest run chase of the day.

Can't agree with you Frankel or anyone who suggests good ground will help his cause,he has excellent form on soft and on heavy.

Most of those taking him on don't so good ground certainly won't increase his chance.

Won't help him get the trip either if that is a problem which I don't believe for one minute it is. Good ground faster pace is still one tough stamina test.
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I have said there will be lots of pace in the race regardless of ground. He will have a better chance of seeing it out on better ground. Whether he will is a different question.
I didn't question his form on softer ground. It was a simple case of this was the furthest he had been and the slower ground just took its toll.
 
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I don't think Thistlecrack will jump well enough or stay well enough to win this. I'd be surprised if Djakadam had improved enough to win it, and Cue Card is getting on a bit nowadays. Which leaves the potential improvers BdM and NR. They'll do for me.
 
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I do like Native River but I have to question is he really a 168 horse ?.

He was 155 before he won the Welsh National beating a 139 horse by only 1 3/4 lengths and he has run to almost exactly to that mark

Back in 3rd we have professional loser Houblon Des Obeaux who has managed only 1/18 and that was in the Denman beating everything by miles the Giant Bolster who was retired shortly afterwards finished 2nd.

I simply can't accept that NR deserved a 13lbs rise of which the OH pulled out his a$$ once again.

The horses that do have proven Gold Cup form are Djakadam Don Poli and to a lesser extent Cue Card haven fallen.

With Cue Card running like a drain I have no idea what to do about him. If he hacked up you'd kick yourself and if he's pulled up at half way you'd kick yourself for backing him.

Don Poli looked less slower than normal in the Lexus but that's a huge worry that he might not be able to keep up again.

That leaves the boat himself Djakadam who I dislike but he has got to have a great chance the way things are truning out.

Long way to go but right now Djakadam (I could choke saying this) looks the best bet
 
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Am surprised BDM is out again so soon after and close to Cheltenham but Twisty knows more than me and in many ways it is refreshing to see horses campaigned like they used to and not special attractions in sub par races
 
Tanlic said:
I certainly wouldn't recommend anyone having their lot on Thistlecrack as I have always questioned his ability to handle other chasers at Gold Cup pace.

I worry even more now because the race he lost to Many Clouds was not run at the pace you would expect in a Gold Cup and was actually the slowest run chase of the day.
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I'm surprised to hear it was slowest chase of the day. I watched it again last night and thought there was a notable injection of pace on the 2nd circuit. I'd be interested to see the splits.

There was a Story in the racing post yesterday saying 'they learned' that many Clouds would have been given new OR of 172 for the performance on Saturday. With Thistlecrack staying on 171. That's good enough to have won many recent editions of the CGC. Not saying Thistlecrack is a cert, but I'm not convinced about what else can run above 172 on good spring ground at Cheltenham.
 
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Double Handful said:
I'm surprised to hear it was slowest chase of the day. I watched it again last night and thought there was a notable injection of pace on the 2nd circuit. I'd be interested to see the splits.

There was a Story in the racing post yesterday saying 'they learned' that many Clouds would have been given new OR of 172 for the performance on Saturday. With Thistlecrack staying on 171. That's good enough to have won many recent editions of the CGC. Not saying Thistlecrack is a cert, but I'm not convinced about what else can run above 172 on good spring ground at Cheltenham.
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Simon Rowlands's analysis (link provided by DG earlier) suggests they went fast after a moderate pace over the first few.

I'd be very surprised if 172 was good enough to win "many recent editions" of the Gold Cup. Maybe Lord Windermere's and Synchronised's but how many others?

Paul Kealy says in his Weekender column BDM's RPR of 173 for Saturday...

...puts him in exalted company.

In the last ten years only six horses have bettered that figure in the first three months of the calendar year - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre, Long Run, Vautour, Douvan and Djakadam. Furthermore, he is improving with every race.
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He tips BDM ew for the Gold Cup at 16/1 (but I don't believe that included the NRNB concession).
 
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Double Handful said:
but I'm not convinced about what else can run above 172 on good spring ground at Cheltenham.
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Doesn't the ground get softer as Friday approaches? What percentage chance do we think it will be soft going? 50/50 maybe?
 
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The forgotten horse on here seems to be Outlander who improved a good few pounds when upped in distance for the Lexus - over 2 lengths in front of Djakadam (170) and Valseur Lido (169). 12/1 NRNB seems a decent price to me.
 
I think the tendency is for the ground to dry out during the week unless, obviously, rain arrives.

They tend to water to maintain some give (not as much as at Aintree) for the start of the meeting and then water selectively if necessary.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Simon Rowlands's analysis (link provided by DG earlier) suggests they went fast after a moderate pace over the first few.

I'd be very surprised if 172 was good enough to win "many recent editions" of the Gold Cup. Maybe Lord Windermere's and Synchronised's but how many others?

Paul Kealy says in his Weekender column BDM's RPR of 173 for Saturday...



He tips BDM ew for the Gold Cup at 16/1 (but I don't believe that included the NRNB concession).
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Going into the race in the last 6 years, only Don Cossack & Long run were higher than 172. Sync & LW as you say, but Coneygree (166 before & 172 after) and Bobs worth (171 before & 180 after). That 180 Bob's worth was too high imo and I think that was subsequently proven.

You know I have the up most respect for your ratings DO, but I'm a big believer in horses for courses. I've no doubt BDM can run to 170+ but on soft ground at places like Haydock with that long finishing straight. Don't think the undulating track at Cheltenham and likely quicker spring ground will see BDM at his best. If it turns up soft, I give him a better chance.
 
Marble said:
Doesn't the ground get softer as Friday approaches? What percentage chance do we think it will be soft going? 50/50 maybe?
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Gold cup going:
07-09 - Good to Soft
10-12 - Good
2013 - Soft
2014 - Good
2015 - Soft
2016 - Good

Only twice in 10 years has it been soft. With the ridiculously mild winter we've had this year, I'm expecting a backlash in Feb/Mar. Wouldn't surprise me if this year's festival is the most Winter-like in a long time. But heh, all speculation. Forecast could do anything!
 
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