The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cheers DH. Speaking from purely selfish reasons, I want soft ground for Champagne West. Whether Henry De Bromhead would run him on Gd-St if there was no significant rain, only time will tell.
 
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Double Handful said:
Going into the race in the last 6 years, only Don Cossack & Long run were higher than 172. Sync & LW as you say, but Coneygree (166 before & 172 after) and Bobs worth (171 before & 180 after). That 180 Bob's worth was too high imo and I think that was subsequently proven.

You know I have the up most respect for your ratings DO, but I'm a big believer in horses for courses. I've no doubt BDM can run to 170+ but on soft ground at places like Haydock with that long finishing straight. Don't think the undulating track at Cheltenham and likely quicker spring ground will see BDM at his best. If it turns up soft, I give him a better chance.
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DO is giving you his version which is not what Rowlands said at all and is only half the story anyway.

I did my own sectional and they are the same as Rowlands but also compared them to the other chases on the day.

IN COMPARISON they set a moderate place to about halfway, NOT the first few fences, that is why it resulted in the slowest time of the day.

Like you said on the second circuit the picked up but where they really made up ground/time was over the last 4 fences which you would expect after a slow pace.

They were 1 second slower that UDS which you would also expect 2 seconds faster than Royal Vacation and 1 second faster than Un Des Sceaux over the last 4 fences.

Was Many Clouds final performance the best of his life? Very hard to evaluate with Smad Place the only real marker.

As I suggested Many Cloud could possibly win the Gold Cup back on page 31 I can hardly argue with the 172, but the thing is, if for example, Djakadam beat Thistlecrack by 12 lengths suddenly they'd be telling us he was a 184 horse.

I think this time round more than ever ratings are just a guide but give very little indication of who will win this complicated Gold Cup.
 
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Euronymous said:
Those prices cannot be right, where's Kylemore Lough?
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KL has an entry in the Irish Gold Cup, and is maybe an intended-runner there (though he looked a total non-stayer at Cheltenham in the Costwold, so no idea why they would persevere with him over staying trips). As you say, he should really be going to Ascot then the Ryanair - he would jump UDS into the deck. :whistle:
 
archie said:
The forgotten horse on here seems to be Outlander who improved a good few pounds when upped in distance for the Lexus - over 2 lengths in front of Djakadam (170) and Valseur Lido (169). 12/1 NRNB seems a decent price to me.
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Agreed Archie. I backed Outlander at a nice price on exactly that basis. I'm happy to have 16's tucked away, and I'm amazed he's still trading at double figure odds, which in a wide open edition seems much too big. At least I know I'm not alone now when the market has been suggesting I am.

I also have Minella Rocco at 40/1 and Native River at 25/1, plus Thistlecrack in a couple of multiples unfortunately at shorter prices than he's currently trading. I'm very happy overall with my ante post position in the Gold Cup though.
 
If the real Cue Card turns up Euro I doubt if the 3f less will make an ounce of difference to him he's always had loads of speed and there's no Nijinsky's in the field

Couldn't agree more about S Conti he should go hunting come back as a hunter Chaser cause all he does these days is hunts
 
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Putting my rose tinted glasses on but I still think Don Poli will out stay them all up the hill. All depends on the ride for me, the one last year from Davy Russell was sickening.

Minella Rocco is another who ran a belter against Many Clouds before crashing at the last, at 40s I've read someone get? Definitely worth a few quid each way for me.
 
Tanlic said:
DO is giving you his version which is not what Rowlands said at all and is only half the story anyway.

I did my own sectional and they are the same as Rowlands but also compared them to the other chases on the day.

IN COMPARISON they set a moderate place to about halfway, NOT the first few fences, that is why it resulted in the slowest time of the day.

Like you said on the second circuit the picked up but where they really made up ground/time was over the last 4 fences which you would expect after a slow pace.
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Simon Rowlands:
[FONT=&quot]There was a good, rather than strong, pace until just before halfway, then an increase which took the leader several lengths ”clear”, a slackening around six out, then another increase in pace going to three out with Many Clouds taking over from long-time leader [/FONT]Smad Place[FONT=&quot], and, eventually, a slow run-in. [/FONT]
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His graphic suggests that 'good rather than strong' pace was as far as the 7th fence, hence my interpretation 'few' (7 of 22, less than a third but that's just my interpretation).

It was a slow run-in, according to Rowlands. Whether that's a 'run-in' from four out or literally the run-in from the last I don't know.

But he does clarify:
[FONT=&quot]The closing sectional of 62.4s in the Cotswold Chase is historically slow, and, more importantly, slower in terms of that finishing speed % (closing speed as a % of overall race speed) than is par for the course. In that stamina-sapping context, the overall time is a good one.[/FONT]
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In terms of possible opponents to Thistlecrack in March he mentions only Cue Card and, interestingly for me, Bristol De Mai.

I haven't analysed the times yet myself but I'll be surprised if the overall time can be interpreted as "the slowest time of the day" but I see it was the slowest raw time of the day, which is hardly surprising at it was the longest race on the regulation track on the day and 172y longer than advertised. Had there been a Class 3 handicap on the day over C&D it would probably have been an awful lot slower.
 
Double J said:
Putting my rose tinted glasses on but I still think Don Poli will out stay them all up the hill. All depends on the ride for me, the one last year from Davy Russell was sickening.

Minella Rocco is another who ran a belter against Many Clouds before crashing at the last, at 40s I've read someone get? Definitely worth a few quid each way for me.
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Don Poli simply wasn't quick enough on the ground. If Davy had tried to go with them then he wouldn't have finished as close as he did.
 
Unashamedly I hope Carlingford Lough wins well in Ireland on Sunday, (not entered in the Gold Cup himself), putting an end to a few horses Cheltenham aspirations.

Fair game, imo.
 
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Pending a meaningful reply from Mr Claisse regarding the race distances, a simple comparison using the times given in the form book before allowing for any adjustment for race distances due to rail movement leads to the following:

Of the two chases run over the same trip (those won by Royal Vacation and Foxtail Hill respectively), the latter was faster by about 5lbs and therefore more meaningful as it was a lower-class race. Using a going allowance extrapolated from that race time would put Many Clouds's time rating in the mid-160s. That would be an absolute minimum as his race was over a much-further-increased distance. We're probably looking at a time rating of around 170, possibly more, for him once we get more details. There is no way that can be construed as anything other than a top-drawer time.
 
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Can you rely on ratings produced on that sticky surface though ?
Obviously you can if horses encounter that ground again but in the overall context ratings are related to "ideal racing conditions " are they not ?
So to get hung up on ratings for an extreme distance race is a dangerous enough pursuit, especially a future race where conditions are unknown.
Easier to rate for Champion Chase ,Ryanair Chase where horses run the distance the year around as opposed to Gold Cup which is a unique once a year event over a course and distance not replicated anywhere else.
 
All true, edgt, but the exercise was geared at trying to quantify Saturday's performance. It points to Many Clouds's having perhaps put up a career-defining - as well as career-ending - performance but it also reflects well on Thistlecrack as a novice putting up a top class effort. I'm not particularly bothered about whether it can be repeated in the sense that, as I said, it was about trying to work out just what was achieved on the day.

I do believe the pace in the Gold Cup itself will be stronger from the outset and probably sustained all they way. It will take a high class staying performance to win.

Then again, this game has a habit of providing entirely the opposite of what we might expect.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Pending a meaningful reply from Mr Claisse regarding the race distances, a simple comparison using the times given in the form book before allowing for any adjustment for race distances due to rail movement leads to the following:

Of the two chases run over the same trip (those won by Royal Vacation and Foxtail Hill respectively), the latter was faster by about 5lbs and therefore more meaningful as it was a lower-class race. Using a going allowance extrapolated from that race time would put Many Clouds's time rating in the mid-160s. That would be an absolute minimum as his race was over a much-further-increased distance. We're probably looking at a time rating of around 170, possibly more, for him once we get more details. There is no way that can be construed as anything other than a top-drawer time.
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Where on earth do you get your ideas from DO? Go check the Gold Cup times 3m2f against the Johnny Henderson or Grand Annual times 2m1/2f. ou'll find only Bobsworth and Lord Windermere were slower most of the others were miles faster eg Long Run fully 4 seconds faster

The average time for 3 miles is the average time for 3 miles and the average time for 2 miles is for 2 miles...........my understanding is to compare you simply look at the average as distance has already been taken into consideration or am I the daft one here?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
All true, edgt, but the exercise was geared at trying to quantify Saturday's performance. It points to Many Clouds's having perhaps put up a career-defining - as well as career-ending - performance but it also reflects well on Thistlecrack as a novice putting up a top class effort. I'm not particularly bothered about whether it can be repeated in the sense that, as I said, it was about trying to work out just what was achieved on the day.

I do believe the pace in the Gold Cup itself will be stronger from the outset and probably sustained all they way. It will take a high class staying performance to win.

Then again, this game has a habit of providing entirely the opposite of what we might expect.
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"Career defining" needs quantifying: either he did it on form - nobody really knows how good the 2nd horse is in such circumstances, or time - finishing speed on an uphill finish on heavy ground off an uneven pace would hardly be the most accurate measure. Many Clouds (visually) probably ran as well as he ever has, but to suggest improvement - in a 10yo having his 18th Steeplechase - smacks of making figures fit preconceptions rather than clinical analysis of the likely truth.
 
granger said:
Am surprised BDM is out again so soon after and close to Cheltenham but Twisty knows more than me and in many ways it is refreshing to see horses campaigned like they used to and not special attractions in sub par races
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Very much a case of strike while the iron is hot and while he has his ground.
He did the same last season after he won at Haydock he went to Sandown but then lost in the JLT on good ground

Personally I don't get it. He won a race that fell apart on bad ground at the seems off 154 and suddenly he's a Gold Cup horse in the betting at 12/1.
The Peter Marsh has been contested by rags for the last 20 years and winners normally have no place in Gold Cups

Cloudy Too hacked up last year winning by 15 lengths that could have been 25 lengths but he never went to Cheltenham he jumped straight into listed class and was trounced by Many Clouds at Kelso.

Bristol De Mai has a bit more going for him than Cloudy Too but he won his novice last year in similar fashion by a distance but made fav he failed to win the JLT.

Hard to give any chance to and more likely to end up in the Ryanair IMO
 
reet hard said:
"Career defining" needs quantifying: either he did it on form - nobody really knows how good the 2nd horse is in such circumstances, or time - finishing speed on an uphill finish on heavy ground off an uneven pace would hardly be the most accurate measure. Many Clouds (visually) probably ran as well as he ever has, but to suggest improvement - in a 10yo having his 18th Steeplechase - smacks of making figures fit preconceptions rather than clinical analysis of the likely truth.
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I was among those quick to belittle the King George form for very similar reasons. I have no agenda - why should I? What would it serve me trying to make some money out of this game to make figures fit perceptions? That would be stupid to the nth degree.
 
No offence, DO, but you're at least the 3rd Poster on here to use 'times' to elevate the performance of the 2 principals, and not one has justified the apparent improvement claimed for Many Clouds to make the figures fit their theory. Tbh, they're all a bit thin on considering how the horses jumped the fences, too. which ought to be a fundament of any appraisal of individual performance.
 
At the end of the day it's all guess work. When you consider Thistlecrack only beat Silviniaco Conti 3 lengths at Kempton where the hell did his rating on 171 come from in the first place?

When Cue Card obviously ran miles below his best surely the OH should eliminate him completely and look at the next horse which was Silviniaco Conti 163 who has finished a sh hd in front of Tea for Two
in a shyte time.

How can beating a 163 horse who barely beats a 153 horse equate to 171???? It simply defies all logic. What is logical is he won by 3 lengths so give him the benefit of the doubt forget the 153 horse and he gets a 166

Then by coincidence he meets a 166 horse and loses by a head but wait this can't be right thinks the OH........ Many Clouds must have suddenly improved on everything he has ever done and ran to 170 not to his mark of 166.

Thistlecrack has a lot to prove if he is to win the Gold Cup and his form simply isn't good enough so far even if he might be

There is of course a possibility that Tizzard has done a PN and left a little bit too much to work on, as the great man did with Kauto.

If that was the case then he certainly would have a great chance in what looks a mediocre but competitive Gold Cup
 
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That was certainly Many Clouds best ever run. He met a rival who unfortunately made him pull out everything he had.

TC rates better than the bare form in the KG, he was eased well before the line and SC's proximity massively flatters him, he was ridden to place.
 
reet hard said:
No offence, DO, but you're at least the 3rd Poster on here to use 'times' to elevate the performance of the 2 principals, and not one has justified the apparent improvement claimed for Many Clouds to make the figures fit their theory. Tbh, they're all a bit thin on considering how the horses jumped the fences, too. which ought to be a fundament of any appraisal of individual performance.
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I'm not really, reet. All I'm doing is offering possible interpretations of what happened, in this case using times. We're all looking at last Saturday's race and wondering what it all amounts to. I'm just offering a possibility based on certain evidence which I've admitted is inconclusive so far.

I wouldn't rush, though, to be sceptical about possible improvement from Many Clouds. He was always such an honest type and the improvement would only amount to a few pounds and I have witnesses that I had 'p?' next to my rating for him going into Saturday's race as I felt there was evidence that he might still be improving despite his age. It isn't impossible. Mullins & Walsh had a '+p' 12yo in a big race last week (Rolly Baby).

There's another angle I've still to investigate and it involves bringing the form of the race down. It's the one with the French apparent no-hoper Vezelay not all that far behind when he came down. I haven't watched the replay yet this week but plan to do so before the weekend. I need to see where Vezelay was relative to Smad Place when he departed, which from memory was out of TV shot. He was "disputing close third when hit 4 out" and I was aware of him still there after that.
 
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