The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Tanlic said:
At the end of the day it's all guess work. When you consider Thistlecrack only beat Silviniaco Conti 3 lengths at Kempton where the hell did his rating on 171 come from in the first place?

When Cue Card obviously ran miles below his best surely the OH should eliminate him completely and look at the next horse which was Silviniaco Conti 163 who has finished a sh hd in front of Tea for Two in a shyte time.
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You know I agree with you on this one, Tanlic.

I think I understand where the OH is coming from although I disagree with it. I have that prerogative and the OH should have the prerogative to rate the form for what it is but I believe they have procedures for rating races where the collateral form amounts to little, which has probably been deemed to be the case in the King George. The procedures involve the historical ratings for previous winners of the race. It's a procedure that probably works most of the time, to be honest, but I couldn't go along with it at Kempton, just as I couldn't in that Gold Cup of Best Mate's when he only just held off that old plodding handicapper.

I went low with the King George. I went high with BDM's Haydock win. I end up winning or losing money on those judgments. That's what doing your own analysis amounts to.
 
Now that I have an accurate picture of the distances (the error was mine) I've re-crunched some numbers.

Many Clouds and Thistlecrack both emerge with time ratings of 165. I suspect many people will be happy to accept that as the level of the form.

Going into the race I had Many Clouds on 167?p? (since his 167 was 2lbs higher than my previous rating for him, I was prepared to question that he had improved first time up and was rating the race via Le Mercurey having run to his best, which I also wasn't sure about but the annotations help me keep an open mind until such times as confirmation emerges) and Thistlecrack on 167++ (for the King George via a tenuous line directly with Tea For Two on my highest figure for the latter which I wasn't sure about but TC won easily enough).

So there would be 2lbs between the ratings based on time and on form. I'm usually happy to go with form ratings in these circumstances as I've always found them to be more reliable than time ratings.

(I'm firmly of the belief that a horse cannot run faster than its ability so any time rating that suggests it can must, in my opinion, be flawed. But that's maybe a debate for another day.)

I still haven't checked the replay to see where Vezelay was and how it was going but in the meantime I'm happy with 167 for both Many Clouds and Thistlecrack. It's hard to imagine the latter winning the Gold Cup but that 167 might not be the extent of his ability going forward since he was better than that over hurdles. Then again, so was Big Buck's.
 
Vezelay was mid-div most of the way, but quickly started to come off the bridle after hitting four-out. It was probably a tired fall, and he would probably have been beaten around 20-odd lengths if he'd stood-up, I reckon, which is roughly the distance he was beaten in the Betfair Chase.
 
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Well, I didn't back it but I'm very pleased with that impressive win for Otago Gold as a solid boost for Bristol De Mai in the Gold Cup as he gave it an 18lbs beating at Haydock.
 
I'm very surprised that BDM hasn't shortened significantly across the board for the Gold Cup after that.

Notwithstanding the fact that OT's blunder would have exaggerated BDM's superiority at Haydock, today's form looks pretty strong in its own right and OT probably emerges as a 160+ horse. We'll see what the handicapper does on Wednesday but anything less than a 9lbs rise would surprise me. But let's say it's only a 7lbs rise. BDM was 18lbs better at Haydock and a direct line, tenuous though it may be, would make BDM a 176 horse before you allow for whatever he had in reserve. I think BDM really should be half his current odds at the most.

What they have in reserve is seldom quantifiable but if people are willing to argue that Buveur D'Air had 20lbs in reserve today, are they willing to allow BDM the same leeway?
 
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Hmm, can't see that myself. Loose Chips was an improver on my figures, as was Beg To Differ who was representing the Welsh National form that has Native River quite short for the Gold Cup and who was gambled from 10/1 midweek to 5/2 on the day, and Irish Saint who was OR153 as a novice before his year off and potentially well handicapped. The last-named might not have stayed but BTD was looking booked for a respectable third when he lost his chance.

With these valuable Saturday handicaps I'm always more willing to read them positively than not.
 
Possible that Otago Trail just doesn't like Haydock?

BDM beat him along way in a novice-chase last season too.

If the form Peter Marsh form is legit (I'm still not convinced myself), then BDM must have at least as good a chance as Native River.
 
Irish Saint is for sure well handicapped, but he's a two and a half miler.

I like BDM a lot and think it was a fantastic run at Haydock, but I'm far from convinced good ground at Cheltenham will see him anywhere near his best.
 
It's not the good ground, it's the combination of good ground and a track like Cheltenham. He has that question to answer after a rather average run in the JLT, a race that the other principals have not franked.
 
Grasshopper said:
If the form Peter Marsh form is legit (I'm still not convinced myself), then BDM must have at least as good a chance as Native River.
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Totally agree, though I do think Native River is a bit short in the betting.

Anyroads, I've gone in again on BDM at 14/1 NRNB. In for a penny and all that...
 
Nice NTD feature in Racing Post today.
He seems happy the horse is in Imperial Commander league at the moment and hopes that is confirmed in Denman chase.
If it is I shall wear a duffel coat in his honour at Leopardstown Sunday next .
 
edgt said:
Nice NTD feature in Racing Post today.
He seems happy the horse is in Imperial Commander league at the moment and hopes that is confirmed in Denman chase.
If it is I shall wear a duffel coat in his honour at Leopardstown Sunday next .
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A likeable horse and an improving one but when Imperial Commander won the GC he had a short headed by Kauto in the Betfair and wins in the Paddy Power and Ryanair behind him . The Peter Marsh not quite comparable .
 
Leading Gold Cup hopes Bristol De Mai & Native River among five in the Denman Chase. Le Mercurey, More Of That & O Maonlai also entered.

Irish Gold Cup – Don Poli, Empire of Dirt, Minella Rocco, Carlingford Lough, Sizing John, Zabana, Road to Riches, More of That, Arctic Skipper and Fine Rightly.
 
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JamesRB said:
Leading Gold Cup hopes Bristol De Mai & Native River among five in the Denman Chase. Le Mercurey, More Of That & O Maonlai also entered.

Irish Gold Cup – Don Poli, Empire of Dirt, Minella Rocco, Carlingford Lough, Sizing John, Zabana, Road to Riches, More of That, Arctic Skipper and Fine Rightly.
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Can't remember the penalty structure for the Denman - do NR and BDM meet at level weights?

Refreshingly, given the straightforward nature of the trainers involved, we don't have to worry about any ducking and diving between now and final decs.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I read somewhere he ran with the choke out in the JLT but can't confirm where I read it.
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http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20160317/2582563/15384941 this carries a health warning for anyone who backed L'ami Serge who is def a reincarnation of Harchibald on a bad hair day


I think he always keen in his races but with it come the ability to travel really well. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the JLT anyway he's improved bundles since then if his last run is anything to go by
 
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