The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Double Handful said:
But SJ has plenty of pace as he has been a 2 miler past few seasons, finishing 2nd only to Douvan all those times. Kevin Blake commented yesterday that he thought it astonishing that SJ had the stamina to win as he was pulling too hard because they didn't go quick enough for him. If he's right, then the faster pace in the GC will suit him even more.....
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Didn't he say Don Poli would win the Gold Cup last season.
 
I'm surprised that people are ignoring or not taking seriously enough what Champagne West did at Gowran.

I'd have him in a match bet over Sizing John that's for sure.

No disrespect to people like Desert Orchid, who I've a great deal of time for, but if you have been taken by horses-weight carrying displays in handicaps, such as Bristol Da Mai, you surely have to be looking at Champagne West.

There's no point going into the merits of the performance at Gowran again, but in any event, he's still a bet at 20's NRNB.

If some soft ground did appear in the going I'd be even more content. That might just tip the scales in his favour.

So don't write off Henry De Bromhead to upset the apple art on Gold Day.
 
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Frankel said:
Didn't he say Don Poli would win the Gold Cup last season.
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[emoji23] Fair response. No doubt Blake has a soft/blind spot for Don Poli. But in general he's a better judge than any of us! However, Blake didn't say SJ would win the GC. He said SJ pulled hard yesterday throughout the early part of the race and he was surprised he got home on account of this. I added that if that is correct, then a stronger pace in the GC would logically suit SJ even more. Regarding pulling hard, I'd need to watch yesterday's race again, as I wasn't predominantly focused on SJ at the time.
 
Double Handful said:
[emoji23] Fair response. No doubt Blake has a soft/blind spot for Don Poli. But in general he's a better judge than any of us! However, Blake didn't say SJ would win the GC. He said SJ pulled hard yesterday throughout the early part of the race and he was surprised he got home on account of this. I added that if that is correct, then a stronger pace in the GC would logically suit SJ even more. Regarding pulling hard, I'd need to watch yesterday's race again, as I wasn't predominantly focused on SJ at the time.
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SJ pulled no harder than EoD, to be fair. They were both running well within themselves, and both could have done with things happening a little bit quicker.

For me, SJ didn't conclusively prove his stamina for a GC yesterday. EoD was reeling him in with each stride on the run-in, and it might (stress might) have been a different story, if EoD hadn't run short of room, going to the last. Regardless, I know which one was seeing-out the race better, and which I'd fancy more in a Gold Cup..........which makes the relative decisions of connections, all the more bizarre.
 
Fair enough, Euro, personally I'd argue he got is own way because he absolutely bossed the field.

The only two I fear are Thistlecrack and Native River.

Even these two may have peaked too early in the season, in The KG and Welsh Nash. They could underperform in the Blue Ribband imo, or go off the boil. as Thistecrack's last showing may have indicated.

Champagne West has come right just at the right time, 6-7 weeks before the race, with a career best. He only needs to find another 7-14 pounds on ratings to be bang there jumping the last.

I reckon (touch wood) we'll see a huge performance. He's won over shorter before, he got loads of natural speed, so he won't be taken off his feet, imho. Its a question of whether he'll keep going the same gallop right to the line for the full 3M 2F.

Regardless of my few shillings on him, my main is hope is for Henry De Bromhead. Hopefully he can show yet again what a top trainer he is. I wish him all the best, it must be an exciting time to be in his yard right now.
 
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Champagne West would be closely-matched with EoD on a line through Bonny Kate, though I think that EoD has improved again, and is at a better level now.

The worry with CW is that he has been beaten every time he has run in Graded company over fences. Can't see him having the class to win a Gold Cup myself - it would need to be bottomless to see him troubling the places, imo.
 
Champagne West has improved again under the handling of Henry De Bromhead, imho, but each to their own GH.

I was hoping Bonny Kate might be entered for Saturday but she's defected at the latest declaration stage.

I've another strong tracker in this Haydock race but I'll leave that for the other threads nearer to Saturday.
 
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Gold Cup is wide open if you believe Thistlecrack is a mid to high 160s horse.
A 165 performance could easily win the Gold Cup this year so any horse with 160+ to his name has a very realistic chance of winning.
That makes the race wide open but Tizzard has more arrows to throw than anyone so has the best chance.
Heart says Cue Card after his unlucky fall last year, has the class and it is surely his last chance realistically.
Sizing John would be my second heart choice.
 
I know you're on at a decent price mate so you have every reason to be happy but my worry about Champagne West is with regards the ground. He clearly likes it soft, as you'd sort of expect being by Westerner and he was horribly outpaced on decent ground in the Ryanair last year.

He appears to have improved for the switch to HDB and the extra 6f of the Gold Cup trip should help on that respect but he doesn't interest me at his current price because there's a big difference in the jumping tests offered by hacking round Tramore and Gowran, compared to a Gold Cup sure to be run at a decent gallop with the likes of Native River in it.
 
SJ is a horse who could improve for good ground at the festival, which would help him get the trip. If it did happen to come up soft, I'd certainly stick to the Ryanair but on better ground in a wide-open year, I'd take my chance in the GC. I've also backed him for the Ryanair so pretty sore about it myself.
 
His jumping was foot perfect the last day, apart from just that one error, where he took off too soon trying to over-jump it, (there was a fairly sharp bend approaching which I think he could see in the corner of his eye).

That bad jump was partly because he was accelerating away from his opponents, and partly because he saw a sharp turn coming, imho. If anyone watches the video they'll see what I mean.

My point here is, after the last day jumping wouldn't be my main concern, it really wouldn't.

The going is the biggest conundrum.
 
I'm not saying his jumping is entirely an issue, as there's been no real problems so far this season, but Champagne West can still make the odd mistake, and he will be asked to go an awful-lot faster a clip in the Gold Cup, than he is used to. He has essentially been dominating inferior animals this season, making-all in his two wins, and he won't be able to do that in the Gold Cup.

On balance, I'd have to think he is hard up against it.
 
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As for The Ryanair last year Lee, I wouldn't see its relevance to him in The GC. He was in poor form in the run-up, as his prior runs showed.

Looking at his overall career, a fair assessment might say, he was a 150 rated chaser with Hobbs, that did win at Cheltenham in novice chases. He went wrong for a while, has gone to a new trainer in De Bromhead, then improved a stone at Gowran (or thereabouts), to a new mark of 166.
 
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Grasshopper said:
making-all in his two wins, and he won't be able to do that in the Gold Cup.
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This could work out to be a positive. I'd rather have a horse that knows how to be up with that pace, than a hold up horse, that just can't quicken.

How many hold up horses have we seen in Gold Cups that can't pick up, a lot..

I wouldn't hold his running style against him.
 
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He won't be able to go a red-hot pace...........he isn't good enough to sustain that kind of gallop, and would be taken right out of his comfort-zone, imo.
 
I wish I didn't love Don Poli, I can't bring myself to back anything else.

Sticking to what I have for the Gold Cup.
Don Poli at 33s and 25s. (Each way)
Thistlecrack at 5s
And Sizing John at 33s.

Have another punt on the day as well.
 
Grasshopper said:
National is hopefully Poli's race. I have him and EoD for that.
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As have I. Will probably be carrying top weight, and a hard race here may do him no favours.

I've got a fair amount on 'Vieux Lion Rouge' for the national at 66s, now 20/1. Might sell the bet closer to time, especially if it wins the national trial on Saturday.
 
It gets worse by the day this Gold Cup which may be trying to tell us we are in for a real shock and who better?

More of That who Jonjo has said before things went wrong was a Gold Cup winning in waiting ran his best race in a like a xillion years.

He has that special Jonjo form going into the race that has produced so many winner for the wee man P30U...absolutely perfect :lol:

Mark Walsh gave him a bit of a gee up on the final bend for a few strides then sat quiet until Barry Geraghty came upsides him

Whether he'd have found much is besides the point he's run a very good race his best since 2015.

He's never been quite right since then but at least this was encouraging. We got one WH winner 15/8 and one at 50/1 I will have a tiny few quid ew on the latter if he turns up on the day.
 
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