The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Yesterday's race was a disappointing one in every sense bar for anyone who backed Native River.

Le Mercurey had 17lbs to find with Native River on ORs and 10lbs on RPRs (although only 6lbs on my own figures on his best old form) so he really shouldn't have been within sniffing distance of the winner, even if we assume he was right back to his very best yesterday, which I wouldn't necessarily believe.

I don't think NR achieved as much yesterday as at Chepstow or in the Hennessy so any negative remarks directed towards BDM should be directed almost as much towards NR. There's no way the BDM we saw yesterday was the same one we saw at Haydock.

The first thing I'll be doing when I get home on Tuesday will be topping up on BDM at 33/1, concessions permitting. That price is a gross over-reaction.
 
Last edited:
Agree. He needs to lead or follow a decent pace.

If he was mine I would have run him today at Leopardstown. British trainers are too conservative.
 
Aiden Coleman rode him to win exactly the way he did. He sprinted away from them at the last. For a horse that stays so well he's got an impressive turn of foot.

As a trial for Cheltenham that's as easy and as simple as you'll get to be spot on in March.
 
Agree Mr Beck.

Again, trying to weigh up the merits of Native River's chances in the GC by the proximity of Le Mercurey is the wrong way to go about it. NR wasn't asked to go and win the race until very close to home. When Coleman did ask the question he quickened up nicely. He's a thoroughly impressive animal.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yesterday's race was a disappointing one in every sense bar for anyone who backed Native River.

Le Mercurey had 17lbs to find with Native River on ORs and 10lbs on RPRs (although only 6lbs on my own figures on his best old form) so he really shouldn't have been within sniffing distance of the winner, even if we assume he was right back to his very best yesterday, which I wouldn't necessarily believe.

I don't think NR achieved as much yesterday as at Chepstow or in the Hennessy so any negative remarks directed towards BDM should be directed almost as much towards NR. There's no way the BDM we saw yesterday was the same one we saw at Haydock.

The first thing I'll be doing when I get home on Tuesday will be topping up on BDM at 33/1, concessions permitting. That price is a gross over-reaction.
Click to expand...

Lucky for you I know a couple of immigration officers in Spain who are refusing your departure until you come to your senses:lol:

Don't waste your money .....He's a softy like I said before the race

How many times has he been second? It's 7 times....how many times he been beat in a photo ? it's zero. How many times has he had to fight or got into a fight and won that's zero too.

Go back to Aintree 2015 when he was a Juvenile Hurdler......Came there cruising 2 out looking all over the winner but the minute Daryl Jacob ask him to go tackle the eventual 2nd dummy straight out the pram finishing 3rd to a horse of PN's

Leopards don't change their spots, he finds nothing when it comes to a fight and we saw that last year when the Mullins horse kicked him into touch.

I suggest you drink your money and go find a wall
 
Last edited:
Interesting Ruby saying on the Commentary there that nobody set a strong enough pace to suit the stayers and the speed horse came to the fore.
The horse I'd take out of that race is Empire of Dirt. He looks like he'll stay further to me and the stiffer test and extra 2f at Cheltenham will play to EOD strengths. I can see EOD reversing the places with SJ at the festival.
 
Last edited:
More of That was running a far better race and looked like he would have gone close but for slipping on landing at the last there .
 
Ardross said:
More of That was running a far better race and looked like he would have gone close but for slipping on landing at the last there .
Click to expand...

Plenty of big prices still available on MOT for the Gold Cup if that takes your fancy.50/1 NRNB with multiple firms and 66/1 available with Hills with their non runner insurance offer.
 
Tanlic said:
Lucky for you I know a couple of immigration officers in Spain who are refusing your departure until you come to your senses:lol:

Don't waste your money .....He's a softy like I said before the race

How many times has he been second? It's 7 times....how many times he been beat in a photo ? it's zero. How many times has he had to fight or got into a fight and won that's zero too.

Go back to Aintree 2015 when he was a Juvenile Hurdler......Came there cruising 2 out looking all over the winner but the minute Daryl Jacob ask him to go tackle the eventual 2nd dummy straight out the pram finishing 3rd to a horse of PN's

Leopards don't change their spots, he finds nothing when it comes to a fight and we saw that last year when the Mullins horse kicked him into touch.

I suggest you drink your money and go find a wall
Click to expand...

:)

I repeat:

At no time have I said BDM will win the race.

I've been talking about his odds being value. To me he was value at more than twice the price of Native River. RPRs agreed that his form amounted to more. We simply didn't see him run his race yesterday so just put a line through it. That's not to say he might not be soft.

I have three half-point stakes on him (with the NRNB concession). I was hoping on the day he'd be 7/1 and I could lay them off. However, if he's 33/1 NRNB I can back him each-way and recoup all potential losses if he happens to cruise up to the leader but not go by him.

It's about finding the value as much as finding the winner.

(And what if Jacob decides to send him clear two out and let others try to catch him?)
 
Grasshopper said:
Dunno about that, DH - he's maybe been beating-up stayers!
Click to expand...

Geezus what does it take.....he's now 6 from 7 in races Douvan did not whip his ass in.

His trainer hit the nail on the head when she said he's a proper Grade 1 chaser....Guaranteed he could drop back to 2 miles tomorrow and win

This Douvan is one very very special horse maybe the best we have ever seen.
 
Tanlic said:
Geezus what does it take.....he's now 6 from 7 in races Douvan did not whip his ass in.

His trainer hit the nail on the head when she said he's a proper Grade 1 chaser....Guaranteed he could drop back to 2 miles tomorrow and win

This Douvan is one very very special horse maybe the best we have ever seen.
Click to expand...


The point was that SJ winning over 3m hardly franks the Douvan form over a mile shorter. I'm taking nothing away feom either animal - just stating the bleedin' obvious.
 
Gold Cup is one exciting betting race.

My only concern is how strong the form of todays race is. Carlingford Lough never really travelled or jumped, so considering this, he got way to close for comfort at the end, in terms of it being a genuine top-class piece of grade 1 form.
 
Last edited:
Carlingford Lough had won it twice before running much the same way, and Poli ties it into the Lexus form. It's proper G1 form any way I look at it.
 
I wouldn't disagree with it being "proper" Grade 1 form GH, I agree with that, but whether its top class, i.e. 170+, I'm not sure. Sizing John has beaten two horses rated 160 & 161 about a length each. Its nice mid 160's form at best but I wouldn't go much higher than that.

I wish you luck with this Empire Of Dirt GC bet, same to Granger with Sizing John. You've got a nice bit of value now.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top