The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Black Hercules could even end up in the Queen Mother....god knows which horses will end up where!! Predicting where Mullins horses end up is like playing russian roulette.....with 5 bullets!
 
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FWIW, Timeform reckon the KG was strong on stamina, based on both CC and Vautour slowing markedly late on. I know you view it differently, but just putting it out there.

To be fair, they also state that both horses still have question marks against their ability to stay the GC trip too.
 
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that seems a little contradictory on their behalf to be fair. The KG was a truly run race for sure...it wasn't a pace collapser though. If they are suggesting it was overly strong pace then they shouldn't be questioning stamina in either horse really. If it was a truly run race..then they both should have finished faster than they did. So their view looks confusing really.

If the Don had not fallen..so many questions would have been answered in that race.

The argumant i would put forward is..if Mullins believed the KG ..like TF suggest...was such a real stamina test ...then why would he drop a horse in trip..from what is viewed as a stamina supporting race...for a horse in the stable with a lower rating?

Why would you drop a horse in trip that had just got beat in a race favouring stamina....according to TF..it doesn't make sense..unless you take the view..that the KG wasn't strong on stamina..but was a fairly run contest and no more.

I think the KG was a very fair test..at 3 miles..and as such wouldn't expect them to be slowing as much as they did from 3 out...it didn't scream..massive stamina test to me...and its pretty clear Mullins didn't thinks so either..well..he said as much when we talked on the phone afterwards:)

we not going to get this answer really...two unfortunate falls have deprived us of an answer..and Mullins decision to run Vautour in Ryanair does support my theory

being serious..i do think Vautour will end up in the Ryanair again..because its a gimme G1 for Mullins..horse well-being assumed.... in a year when he has lost good horses..if he was going to throw the dice on Vautour re the Gold Cup..it would have been last time..i don't see him rolling a dice with any horse now..he will have his targets set more than ever and will want them at trips where most £ will be returned more so than ever before.
 
BDunno TF are being entirely contradictory, EC1.

In terms of GC, they're basically saying impossible to tell either way if CC would have got home as well as the Don, and make reference to horses who didn't win the Gold Cup, despite looking likeliest winners from 2-out. In Vautour's case, they make no real judgement, other than to infer they would expect him to run in the race eventually.

I've rationalised the Ryanair run as being due to Mullins looking to win both Trainers titles, and every penny counted. This, imo, was likely the motivation for the switch out of the Gold Cup: moreso than stamina concerns and moreso than Vautour not working like a Gold Cup horse the week leading-up to the Festival.

Mullins almost certainly won't make the same kind of unremitting assualt on the UK title in the new season, and I remain confident that - all being well - Vautour will get his Gold Cup chance in March.
 
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From RP

GORDON ELLIOTT has tentatively suggested that January could be the month stable star Don Cossack returns to the track, which will be his only start before he tries to win back-to-back Cheltenham Gold Cups in March providing his recovery from injury continues without mishap.
A four-and-a-half-length winner from Djakadam in this year's Gold Cup, the nine-year-old sustained a tendon injury while being prepared for a shot at the Punchestown Gold Cup in April after his Cheltenham heroics.
While the initial prognosis did not look positive, his recovery has gone according to plan so far according to his trainer, who is allowing himself to think about a possible return date for the Gigginstown House Stud-owned chaser.
"He's the best horse I've ever trained and he did us proud at Cheltenham when he showed how good he is on good ground," said Elliott, discussing his stable stars as part of the Racing Post Stable Tours series. "It was such a shame what happened to him before Punchestown, but he owes us nothing.
"His scans have come back perfect and he's done lots of road work with Dot Love. It'll be a case of one day at a time with him and we'll see how he is. If there are any hiccups, we'll retire him."


Thurles could be the starting point



Discussing a potential return, he added: "If things do go according to plan and he keeps improving, we might look at the Kinloch Brae at Thurles in the middle of January as a starting point. It'll be one run and then back to the Gold Cup. But, as I said already, it'll be one day at a time and we won't be taking any chances."

Despite his injury woe, Don Cossack is a top-price 10-1 for the Timico Cheltenham Gold Cup, with only Thistlecrack and Vautour shorter in the betting with some bookmakers.
 
EC1 said:
that seems a little contradictory on their behalf to be fair. The KG was a truly run race for sure...it wasn't a pace collapser though. If they are suggesting it was overly strong pace then they shouldn't be questioning stamina in either horse really. If it was a truly run race..then they both should have finished faster than they did. So their view looks confusing really.
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They question the stamina of those 2 for the Gold Cup which makes sense given CC in previous years was always choking at the end of the races then the operation came which didn't gave him more stamina but just the ability to sustain just 3 miles from evidence we have so far. Then secondly Vautour who at the end of a stamina test in the KG was running on fumes. Vautour was also not entered in the GC partially because there was a horse called DON who was favourite and Mullins sometimes relies on odds for where his horses run, especially those that aren't certain to win a race but would definitely win another. Besides, the Ryanair then Gold Cup route has been well establish now with Imperial Commander, Cue Card, Don Cossack. Vautour will follow this as well and is 90% certain to take part. Mullins also has alot of novices coming through the ranks that are Ryanair bound, which of them who knows.
 
I reckon and have done for sometime that WPM is mustard keen on stepping Douvan up in trip. It would be great if he went Tingle Creek first and met Sprinter Sacre but trust me if he goes Tingle Creek Nicky Henderson won't send Sprinter as he wouldn't want to be taking Douvan on that early at his age,

I sincerly hope and think Douvan will go King George and win it doing handstands
 
Tanlic said:
I reckon and have done for sometime that WPM is mustard keen on stepping Douvan up in trip. It would be great if he went Tingle Creek first and met Sprinter Sacre but trust me if he goes Tingle Creek Nicky Henderson won't send Sprinter as he wouldn't want to be taking Douvan on that early at his age,

I sincerly hope and think Douvan will go King George and win it doing handstands
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Agree it would be great to see D and SS going head to head in the Tingle Creek but it's not going to happen.
Would love to see Douvan in the King George and step up to the GC afterwards leaving the way clear for SS to bag a 3rd QM [emoji4]


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Douvan would likley not run in either Tingle and KG, he's not even out of the novice company and RR makes that clear in the full interview. He says "We know he has it to prove in Open company yet but it is very hard to contain our excitement about him." http://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/rich-ricci A full campaign needs to happen 'STOP THE HYPE' for the horse to prove he's up to the task so that if he's not his followers won't feel let down for losing just by 1 length. Losing by 1 length the KG should be considered a high class horse, instead his stock will drop massively in his followers eyes so please let the horse do its own talking so that you continue posting on twitter/forums about how great he can become.. you're digging your own graves hyping him up with no facts/form.
 
Aughex said:
Douvan would likley not run in either Tingle and KG, he's not even out of the novice company and RR makes that clear in the full interview. He says "We know he has it to prove in Open company yet but it is very hard to contain our excitement about him." http://www.attheraces.com/stable-tours/rich-ricci A full campaign needs to happen 'STOP THE HYPE' for the horse to prove he's up to the task so that if he's not his followers won't feel let down for losing just by 1 length. Losing by 1 length the KG should be considered a high class horse, instead his stock will drop massively in his followers eyes so please let the horse do its own talking so that you continue posting on twitter/forums about how great he can become.. you're digging your own graves hyping him up with no facts/form.
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Douvan

11 straight wins
7 Grade 1's
Earned £435.965

There are a few who own or part own horses on here..if any of you had a horse with that record..would you say it was being hyped if people got a little bit excited and discussed it on here..with a record like that?

I wonder how many other horses had a similar record at this point in their career..particularly over fences and hurdles..apart from FTO 2nd..an unbeaten horse///and even STS got beat FTO..there aren't many horses on either code got a 2 year record like that

add in the phenominal speed figures he has churned out with machine like consistency

I'm not a fan of hype..but Douvan don't qualify imo..he has more than done in enough to be considered for any G1 in the future..no matter how experienced the oppo are...whoever it is will be looking up his arse all of the race..he won't know if they selling platers or G1 horses..because apart from the parade ring and going to the start..he won't see them in the race.

Way too much is made of this..oooh wait til he meets big lads..with how he runs races..it is irrelevant who is in the field..and it will be up to them to get out of their comfort zone to get to him...the question is..which "big boy" has got the chops to beat him..i can't think of one.
 
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but look at the owner's words @EC, he said "We know he has it to prove in Open company yet" THIS. Now look above my post, people are talking of whether its better to win the KG or Tingle. If you'd be a part/full owner of the rest of the horses participating in those events and hear stuff like if Douvan goes there he wins, with him being a novice who barely encountered a proper animal in his career, what would you say? Again Douvan's owner is full of excitement like anyone would be, but look at what he's saying, he's saying he has to prove it!! How am I wrong when saying lets wait and see if he can handle the older animals before crowning him a champion?? I won't say anything else on the subject but I find it hard to read someone else's posts that are full of hype!! The horse isn't hype, there are some that are hyping him like he's already done it!! Good night!
 
Sometime we spot one early and we like to tell others how good our new racing hero is but no one can claim this about Douvan because virtually from day 1 Mullins was praising him as the best he's ever had.

Considering he's not Aiden it's surprising to me at least that Mullins would make a statement like that.

I set out to find out just how good he was by comparing him to the best. I'm a great believer in comparing speed from different points in a race at Cheltenham and have found it particularly helpful at Cheltenham Douvan Supreme V Faugheen Champion Hurdle I looked at from 3 out. Douvan had hardly moved 3 out but that's where Ruby kicked on in the Champion Hurdle and was well in front of where Douvan was in his race by the 2nd last but at the line there wasn't an inch between them. I'd say that's a decent pointer to say Douvan has more than a fair engine in him something that was backed up big time by the overall time..Douvan had covered the trip 3.4seconds faster than Faugheen.


After Sprinter Sacre's demolition job of Cue Card and Co in his Arkle when he took off at the 4th last and simply left them all for dead i didn't think for 1 minute Douvan had matched that in his Arkle.

Anyway Douvan was racing in much slower conditions but I downloaded the 2 races anyway.

4 out Sprinter has gone for home while Douvan is just doddling away by 3 out Sprinter is about 4 lengths further ahead than the point Douvan has got to. Douvan then starts to race and between the 2nd last and the he's actually got there quicker than Sprinter Scare and by the line he's 3 or 4 lengths in front of him.

Sprinter Sacre 7.3 Good To Soft .90sec fast

Douvan 7.0 Good to Soft.... soft in places 3.4second Fast

It's one thing a horse being called a monster and another thing him backing it up by performance.

There's no trickery here this horse has out performed a Champion Hurdler and arguably the best chaser to grace the turf since Arkle.

The big question is will he stay. Kauto was very fast as was Dessie and they stayed the Gold Cup trip so it doesn't always apply that if they are exceptionally fast over 2 miles they won't get 3 miles plus.

Aughex makes the point he Hyped and yet to do it.

Sprinter managed 10 consecutive wins Kauto I think about 8? Thistlecrack Gold Cup fav 1+5 over hurdles Coneygree who won the Gold Cup had 4 consecutive under his belt Denman strung 9 wins together
Long Run 4ish

Douvan has strung together 13 consecutive wins without a blemish and the word "hype" is an insult to the horse
 
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He's no Sprinter mate in his novice years, I don't know what you're doing with those times .. its ridiculous. Simple question for you, has Douvan ever raced an 155 horse over hurdles or 165 horse over fences ? Simple as. You know he would've meet over hurdles horses rated above 170+ and over fences he'll meet horses above 180+? Thats a stone caliber above what he's been meeting. I have no problems anyone saying he can do IT, I have problems reading some posts that say he has already DONE THAT and he's already above those top class horses. I think they deserve more than to be compared with a horse with a 10 wins in a row against average novice opposition. Next simple question, has he ever won a G1 in open company?

Look up Simonsig, a high class quality novice horse in his day, Nicky saying he's the only horse to give a race to Sprinter in his pomp, similar novice performance with a Neptune and Arkle at the festival, and people on here calling me out for saying he would stand a chance when he made his belated comeback from injury 2 years later. Sure he failed but still was 3 lengths in behind Gods Own at P'town after a not so perfect season start. He will return again this season, what form he will return in I don't know but when telling me that Douvan is unique I'd tell you look back only a year ago Vautour, look back couple of years ago Simonsig, and so on. Horses that had a perfect start in novices and when going against older horses failed for some reason.

As for trusting Mullins words, listen to the latest Final Furlong Podcast, there's an argument in there for believing anything that AOB says and discarding anything that Mullins says cause its rubbish until you see it happen. AOB says his horse is not ready or he'll run there, thats the truth, Mullins says a horse is the next thing or he's in great form, it gets beat for lack of fitness or he doesn't run against real competition and dodges for a easier race.

Later Edit: And how does Mullins know what his horses are compared with each other? Anyone will tell you he doesn't race his horses against each other, at least novices against older horses etc. When he said he was the best horse he was referring of how docile he is and he does good pieces of work, he wasn't racing horses against each other in private mate. He rarely puts them in gallops against 1-2 good of his good ones so he can gather their class and regarding Douvan he said that he can stay up with his best ones, but for how long and how fast they were going no one knows.. Sure he's a high quality horse, you'd expect that otherwise you wouldn't hear him saying he works so well but there's a world apart from beating some of his stellar ones on a racetrack.
 
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Sometimes Aughex you don't wait to find out something, you have to predict it yourself.

This takes a mix of ability, cunning and common sense.

Roll on the Douvan express.

Choo Choo.
 
Sometimes you don't wait to find out something, you have to predict it yourself. This takes a mix of ability, cunning and common sense.

Genius work Granger..those should be the first two sentences of every gambling book..a brilliant summation of what every punter needs in general...if they want an edge.

When trying to predict the future..you will get it wrong sometimes..but if you get it right often enough you are ahead of the crowd.

It doesn't really apply in this case as it was clear from early days what we had here with Douvan. But the above sentences weigh up what anyone that wants to win has to take on board.

great stuff Granger..and in such few words
 
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