The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

TheBear said:
And it begins.........
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it began before that:)

when Mullins drops those words out on Tuesday of Cheltenham week again "we've decided to go for the Ryanair again" reality will kick in.....have a good look at Riccis body language when he gets the trophy again..looks like a man who has just been had up his ass...well..tbh ..he had
 
The revealing bit from Racing Post yesterday was that Vautour lost all form after Kempton and could not work well with anything at WPM's.
They all rode him work to the same effect yet somehow he was lit up by Cheltenham.
Were it up to Ruby the horse would have been left at home; yet he never won a race more easily.
Will they attempt Kempton again ?
Would you if he were yours if you thought he was A Gold Cup horse ?
 
Since Faugheen was sent for the Christmas Hurdle 2 years ago, they always took an extra to keep him company on the road. They'll do the same as Faugheen targets the race again and Vautour could have a much easier task this time with Cue Card lack of last season form and Coneygree&Don missing from it.
 
while the King George seems an obvious race for him it can be tough tough like last year.
a year older and wiser and given he is a spring horse with such solid course form I would avoid Kempton and do the Don Cossack route as per last year (without King George ).

Thus ruling out hard races and slogs on heavy ground, i would bring him as fresh as possible to Festival Gold.!
 
I thought they were too aggressive on him at Kempton last year (took it up too far out) and he only just failed to outlast Cur Card. A slightly different ride will see a different result. The Ryanair was a trial in not having to lead and getting a tow into a race for me.
 
You have a horse who is better left-handed and on decent ground. Why would you run him right-handed on soft?
 
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Valseur Lido looks tempting in the JNwine on Saturday if Henry lets him go.

Remember Cooper speaking very highly of him when he was just still over hurdles.

Convinced he's got a biggun in him.
 
archie said:
You have a horse who is better left-handed and on decent ground. Why would you run him right-handed on soft?
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Technically, his form in last season's King George is better than anything he has produced at Cheltenham to-date, so not sure this theory holds too much water, archie.
 
'Technically'? The whole rationale behind Vautour being able to win a Gold Cup is based on him being better at Cheltenham in March than at Kempton in December. If he can only reproduce KG form he won't win a Gold Cup.
 
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Depends on how you view it, archie.

The Official Handicapper rated the Ryanair win 5lbs higher than the King George win, but Timeform give him a higher rating from Kempton.

The whole rationale about Vautour being able to win a Gold Cup (or not) is about whether he stays the trip. If he doesn't stay, he won't run to a high-rating, because he'll be beaten far enough. If he does stay, then there's no reason why he can't win the Gold Cup, because his Kempton form already demonstrates that he can run to the level required to win the race.
 
Clearly they had doubts at Closutton last year. If he wasn't right as was claimed he wouldn't have run at the Festival at all let alone put in performance rated 5lb's better than his King George run.

I know I've said it before but he so much reminds me of Florida Pearl. If the Ryanair had been around at the time Florida Pearl would have won four, but as it was he ran in the Gold Cup time and again and was a classy non-stayer.

Last season would have been Vautour's best chance. If they do go the Gold Cup route this season he'll have to contend with Coneygree setting a searching pace, and if Thistlecrack is anywhere near as good as he was over hurdles, there's another horse who can sustain a searching gallop. In those circumstances Vautour will get found out, and I suspect Ruby and Willie know it. In fact I suspect Djakadam will beat him and he's a horse I've never really seen as a Gold Cup winner either unless the race fell in his lap.

People point to the likes of War of Attrition being able to win the Gold Cup as a doubtful stayer, but he won the lowest quality Gold Cup Of the last 20 years. Beating Hedgehunter two lengths is like beating Many Clouds two lengths. By comparison Coneygree beat Many Clouds by 25 lengths. Actually, on reflection, I'm being unfair to Many Clouds who's highest winning Mark is 9lb's better than Hedgehunter's. And whilst I think Vautour is better than War of Attrition, there are too many classy stayers around at the moment who both travel and stay for him not to get found out. It's realistic that there are going to be three or four in that mould this time and if Vautour is with them at the last I don't see Vautour as being the one who's likely to be staying on strongest up the hill.

Now I've said all that I'm fairly confident they will go the Gold Cup route. Willie and Ruby have already got three or four bullets aside from Vautour to fire at the Ryanair, and you could almost see them them filling the frame, so if Ricci wants to go the Gold Cup route I don't think either of them will try to talk him out of it this time, and they'll save the bullsh*t excuses for keeping other horses apart.
 
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Vautour was officially rated 176 for his Kempton run, and 173 for his Cheltenham run, I don't know where you got the 5lbs higher figures but its not from the official handicappers. Vautour 176 rating sounds about right to me beating Al Ferof 13 lengths. Silviniaco Conti was rated 177 for beating Al Ferof 14 lengths in 2013. Al Ferof was thereabouts in the last 3 renewals and its a good marker because he was always at his best at the start of season, the rest of the placed horses confirm that view as well.

The thing about Vautour's Cheltenham was that he was twice taking on inferior animals and even though he beat them well, he didn't take part in a championship race. This season will be his moment of glory if he has one in him, but if Don comes back to his best its going to be hard for anything in the race anyways. Thistlecrack will be wasted by going KG first and will simply be a lost novice when he gets to the big day, connections will regret their decision to go Kempton so then they might choose the safest option in the RSA or potentially reverse over hurdles. If Coneygree comes back to his best, he'll make it a stamina test which won't suit Vautour who was backpedaling in a 3 mile race on a flat course. Djak 2nd twice, still has this on the target so maybe 3rd time lucky. Of the outsiders I have Seeyouatmidnight, More of That and Irish Cavalier on my radar. Douvan is a joke at the prices, the hype will cost some Mullins lovers plenty money especially backing him for this and the KG. Killultagh Vic would be a viable contender but Mullins will cover the Ryanair with him, probably same with Black Hercules. Don Poli has been exposed, now with different trainer he might get into places as he's a classic runner for a GC with loads of stamina but no class but might win it simply thanks to a good ride. If the classier horses turn up on the day he's got no chances. Zabana & Road to Riches could also fit that category. Cue Card sadly appears to have lost his form from last season but he could recover and maybe put up a great display, at least for the first 3 miles.

Just hope to see a no-excuses Vautour turn up, see what he can do, Coneygree and Don back to their best, and CC to recover his form and we'll be in for a real treat. If Thistlecrack connections find some sense and gradually ramp him up instead of killing him in the KG, then even better as the race will have a classic look to it. At the moment thats a big IF because Don might even be retired if he's not showing signs of being '120%', Coneygree might not be the force from 2 years ago and CC might not recover his form so who knows what we'll end up with but thats why I'll keep an eye on the aforementioned outsiders.
 
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Think we need to just clear up the Coneygree position. If ground like this year then he won't even run.
 
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Its generally GS, last year was Good. If its Slow then Vautour and Don won't run or have much chances. I assume we are talking about the general situation with a Good-Soft where everyone will take part and have no excuses. Sure Coneygree will prefer Soft but if its GS on the soft side he'll still hold big chances if he comes back to his best.
 
I think people boosting for Coneygree are kidding themselves on. How many horses have won - let alone regained - a Gold Cup, after more than a full season off through injury? I can't have him at all.
 
Grasshopper said:
I think people boosting for Coneygree are kidding themselves on. How many horses have won - let alone regained - a Gold Cup, after more than a full season off through injury? I can't have him at all.
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He did run last season prior to injury but your general point is a sound one.

I'm applying broadly similar arguments to Faugheen's prospects in the Champion Hurdle.
 
Grasshopper said:
I think people boosting for Coneygree are kidding themselves on. How many horses have won - let alone regained - a Gold Cup, after more than a full season off through injury? I can't have him at all.
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The horse had major leg issues even before the Gold Cup, it was the main reason they went that route as a novice. They know he will have limited opportunity due to his fragility. Now a year off may have actually done him a lot of good and given his old issues further time to heal and strengthen. But you wouldn't want to be getting involved until you seen him out on the track again, and more importantly coming out after fit and 100% sound.
 
Aughex said:
Vautour was officially rated 176 for his Kempton run, and 173 for his Cheltenham run, I don't know where you got the 5lbs higher figures but its not from the official handicappers.
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I was going by the relative ORs in the Racing Post database. Probably not the most scientific method, I agree, as it will only show the master rating, I expect.

I obviously disagree with the notion that Vautour was back-pedalling in the KG. Smad Place never closed the gap after two-out, and you would certainly have expected him to do so, if Vautour was treading-water after the last.
 
Grasshopper said:
I think people boosting for Coneygree are kidding themselves on. How many horses have won - let alone regained - a Gold Cup, after more than a full season off through injury? I can't have him at all.
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Got to agree Grassy the problem I have with him is not only winning it again is him attempting to repeat that front running win. It was a long grind from a long way out and what helped him bundles was Djakadam being a bit of a plodder. Granted Don Cossack beat the same animal but there different styles of racing leads me to believe he'd be a sitting duck for a horse of Don Cossack's calibre.

Wouldn't write him off to be placed but winning again will be very tough
 
What Ruby had to say about Djakadam was that the horse would have been a poor third had Cue Card stood up in Gold Cup.
Ruby rates Don Cossack as being on a different level to the rest and Cue card of 2015/16 as the only horse to worry him.
Would Vautour win a Hennessey/Thyestes off top weight from the front ?
If so he is the real deal.
 
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Another point about Djakadam is that he's still a young horse, 7 going on 8, and might be able to produce a bit more this season.
 
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