The Road To The 2018 Champion Chase

TheBear said:
2m4 - Has a Ryanair entry - owner already has one for the CC. Could they?


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7/1 nrnb. wins well on sat and goes for that race he goes off much shorter.

obviously the most likely scenario is a void bet but worth the investment.
 
I think so. None of the three protagonists declared for that race are running over their usual trip. If they all stand their ground it’ll be interesting.


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All the 7/1 NRNB for the Ryanair been gobbled up. Most places 4/1 now but just got on with Coral at 6/1. I agree it looks a risk feee investment. If he lines he'll be a lot shorter.
 
shortened for the queen mum too

as an aside mullins has some other weird entries for the weekend. vvm who was rumoured to be retiring has an entry at navan, also abbyssial & bellshill who've not been sighted for ages.

he's probably pissing himself with laughter while he makes them :lol:
 
Start of the season RR was quoted as saying where Douvan goes will depend on Min, which raised a few eyebrows. Min looked pretty good LTO so will go QMCC and therefore I wouldn't be surprised to see Douvan in the Ryanair if he does make the festival, plus it means avoiding Altior, who if Douvan is to meet may be better off waiting until he's had a run or two first.
 
Agree with Euro’s position, though was never “confident” as Altior only had a deferred start rather than a genuine problem. The concern was Altior came back and did the kind of number he did at Newbury. He’ll be hard beaten.
 
Was there ever any explanation for Altior's below par effort in the Arkle? If that's what he does over fences at the Festival, he is at the least vulnerable.
 
Nothing formal I don’t think, but (whatever Tanlic says) it was a mighty performance in the Game Spirit in his prep, and may have taken more out of him than they realised.

Bears repeating too, that Altior never looked in any danger of being beaten in the Arkle either.
 
I'm not sure he was below par in the Arkle. I went very high with my figures for it. I don't think they went that fast through the race and the closing sectional was lightning fast. Off a stronger pace he would have, as Para Handy used to say, annanalated them.
 
Douvan entered over 2m4f this weekend and price crumbling for the Ryanair.
I called this in September, just guess not under these circumstances.
 
If EC1 was still around I'm fairly sure he would have a couple of very high speed figure for Min over fences. To add to that he is a natural chaser so it's no surprise that he's improved again since he went chasing. What we don't know is how much relative to Altior, and the line we have on them through the Supreme.

If it's to be believed an injury had an impact on Min's run. Whether that's the case or not none of us really know. What we do kn ow is that it was a seriously high class Supreme and Min barring one flat run against Simply Ned has looked the part over fences.

The flip side is Altior has had an easy time of it after his breathing op, but his Rolls Royce engine looked as good as ever at the weekend. What possibly counts against him is that he hasn't been extended at any point this season, so is Min in a better place if they get in to a battle up the hill?

Ultimately it'll come down to the jumping and if they're both clean Altior wins, but I don't think the race will be a reflection of the current odds, and Min will go very close, and can win if Altior makes mistakes.

As I said previously I will likely cover some multiples by backing Min or laying Altior on the day. I have one very nice multiple with Might Bite from the King George running on to Buveur D'air and Altior that's paying c2.5k, plus a host of others that include the same two and three horses for the Festival, plus the three of them in combination with others. So maybe I'm being overly cautious about their relative chances and playing Min up because of what looks on paper to be a very good position if they all stay fit and healthy.
 
Just an additional thought with regards Douvan. Even if Douvan takes up his entry, after such a long layoff is it not more likely they'll wait for Aintree and Punchestown giving more time to recover? Min deserves to take his chance anyway, and on my figures is capable of serving it up to Altior. Douvan may not at this stage be able to produce his best which would make the decision a relatively easy one however tempted they may be.
 
At the prices I’d be keen on Min and take my chance Altior won’t produce his very best.

The fact that Min didn’t run again that season after the Supreme gives some credence to the injury story. That said it’s hard to see anything beating Altior that day. The way he finishes races is something to behold and tailor made for Cheltenham.


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Anyone who has seen Min in the flesh will know that he's a totally different animal now to the one who ran in the Supreme. That day he could best be described as very narrow and unfurnished but he has now filled out and looks much more like a proper racehorse. It also seemed to me that the physical maturing was matched by the mental side and he seemed full of himself on the stable visits. However, I think we have to allow that Altior has matured as well and it's impossible to know how the relative progress will work out. If pushed, I'd suggest that Min would get a lot closer than 7 lengths but maybe not enough to beat Altior if he's at the top of his game (another imponderable).
At the start of the season I had it from the horse's (trainer's) mouth that they thought that both Min and Douvan were capable of going up in trip but Douvan had more basic speed and the thinking at that time was CC for Douvan and Ryanair for Min if everything went smoothly. Of course, it hasn't and my belief is that it's now very much a 50/50 call if they both get there.
 
I’ve got MIn in a nice trixie but in the Ryanair so I’m praying for a Lazarus like job with Douvan!


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