Faugheen devours Ground. Buveur D’Air translated literally means “Air Drinker”
Those lungs never burn! Ever. He doesn’t feel the pain other horses do.
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The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle
- Thread starter Diamond Geezer
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Faugheen devours Ground. Buveur D’Air translated literally means “Air Drinker”
Those lungs never burn! Ever. He doesn’t feel the pain other horses do.
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I never said he was fat....i said he was big, but nowhere near as big as in the past. I also explained this was because he was last out and first in this season. He's been on the walker for months. He has a massive arse on him. Faugheen by the way.
Ruby or Townend?!
granger
Senior Jockey
The doubters will soon feel the burn
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Seems to me there's plenty on here doubting Buvi....bring it on I say this horse is different garvy to anything Faugheen ever had to face (the Fly was way past his best)
Willie Mullins > "He's back as good as ever again now"
Tanlic, who do you think it refers to? Its the morning of an important race. Clue: http://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12040/9751362/champion-hurdle-preview-faugheen-vies-for-rich-pickings .. Thats right, Hurricane Fly who was coming on back of defeating Jezki 3 times in the winter after he was pulverized by him at the end of previous season. These 2 horses at the time were rated 1-3 pounds more than Buv in winning his CH.
Be lucky Buv has won a CH, Faugheen would've chased his 4th one without being injured.
Tanlic, who do you think it refers to? Its the morning of an important race. Clue: http://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12040/9751362/champion-hurdle-preview-faugheen-vies-for-rich-pickings .. Thats right, Hurricane Fly who was coming on back of defeating Jezki 3 times in the winter after he was pulverized by him at the end of previous season. These 2 horses at the time were rated 1-3 pounds more than Buv in winning his CH.
Be lucky Buv has won a CH, Faugheen would've chased his 4th one without being injured.
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
A good win by Defi over them in the Coral would give Hobbs's Champion Hurdle hopes a huge boost.
Winning is definetly possible but impressively? that could be much tougher
With LR likely to set a testing gallop and Defi L'ami and MTOY all likely to be held up cruising a tactical affair followed by a sprint ending looks certain. If Nicky also runs Top Notch that just complicates things further
I was expecting him to be odds on but the bookies know that one mistake late on could cost any of them the race
Still that price is probably worth grabbing..I reckon a good bet is 25pts Defi 11/10 12pts Sizing John 3/1 and 10pts double
Then if either one wins you are covered
Winning is definetly possible but impressively? that could be much tougher
With LR likely to set a testing gallop and Defi L'ami and MTOY all likely to be held up cruising a tactical affair followed by a sprint ending looks certain. If Nicky also runs Top Notch that just complicates things further
I was expecting him to be odds on but the bookies know that one mistake late on could cost any of them the race
Still that price is probably worth grabbing..I reckon a good bet is 25pts Defi 11/10 12pts Sizing John 3/1 and 10pts double
Then if either one wins you are covered
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
You can twist and turn thing with numbers to suit any case. Neither Jezki nor Hurricane Fly chased him home Arctic Fire rated 157 at the time did.
Your old pal the mega consistent TNO finished 8 1/2 lengths behind Faugheen, He finished 8 3/4 lengths behind Annie Power he finished 10 1/2 lengths behind Buveur D'air having won the Stan James Trial Hurdle on all 3 occasions prior to the big one.
This clearly indicates that there is nothing between any the 3 unless you think all the praise you have been putting on TNO was garbage?????
We have to be realistic here.Jezki was in good form against early season half fit horses but he is still a shadow of his old self. he gave Faugheen no sort of challenge at all and that's a zillion miles from winning a Champion Hurdle
I haven't twisted any numbers, in fact I haven't used any. I simply gave you the trainer's thoughts on the morning of the race. He looked pretty happy that Hurricane Fly was in the best form of his life.. You're the one that used a rating of AF going into the race 157 which its around the same all champions have come into it at their first attempt, bar Faugheen who came the highest rated in history 1st time around on 169 mark, given a 173 performance figure for his demolition job with no prep and jump mistakes that would've taken out of contention any other horse.
Here, relax and take a look at a performance that you're fourth great-grandchild will still talk about:
Here, relax and take a look at a performance that you're fourth great-grandchild will still talk about:
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
No different than you thinking the horse you've backed is a good thing...it's called being biased
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Do you actually agree with the 169 the handicapper gave Faugheen?
If so tell me how you get to that figure? I get a 161 on my abacus
If so tell me how you get to that figure? I get a 161 on my abacus
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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Despite Jezki winning last time out, it's a hard race to weight-up.
I reckon the OH has taken a view that the Morgiana form is possibly questionable, but that if you take Jezki's runs this season at face value, it can credibly be argued high.......and he doesn't want to look like a complete plum, if he takes a pessimistic view, goes low, and Faugheen bolts-up again next time out.
I reckon the OH has taken a view that the Morgiana form is possibly questionable, but that if you take Jezki's runs this season at face value, it can credibly be argued high.......and he doesn't want to look like a complete plum, if he takes a pessimistic view, goes low, and Faugheen bolts-up again next time out.
We're all biased, the difference makes it the knowledge you posses about a particular subject and when it comes to WPM he knew the best of all how H. Fly was going. Ruby also said this "when you see what Hurricane Fly was doing at home, it was a big call to get off him". He was beating the current champion Jezki vs the previous years when he almost got beat by 140 horses so what WPM said is backed by form.
Its long established you're not very skilled on handicapping or judging anything related to horses form, better leave that to the professionals and their handicapping scale on which they work daily. If you want facts outside of his form so you can see how he was rated so highly before the CH, well.. he put up the fastest or 2nd fastest Baring Bingham. His Christmas Hurdle overall time was also 1st or 2nd fastest. In those 2 races the pacemakers were crucial. They were Cole Harden who next year won the Stayers and Blue Heron who next time out won the Kingwell. It'd help him alot nowadays if he had a quality pacemaker as it'd allow him to fully blow the field apart more so than when having to do all the hard work himself.
Take Jezki out, Swamp Fox who came with race fitness and is a 90 flat rated animal, his jockey was pushing along with a mile to go. Campeador who's 152 rated over hurdles was legless after 2 out.
Take all of them out, the time figure posted was 169. To give you an idea thats the 2nd best timefigure since timeform started doing these over jumps. That on soft-heavy ground, not good ground like Buveur Dair had in the CH and only managed 167. The best 175 was also his in the Irish CH 2016.
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Grasshopper
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Faugheen's time-figure will presumably be adjusted for the prevailing ground.
I'm already on record as stating it was a mighty performance from Faugheen, and have no real quibble with a rating of 169 myself. However, I would not rate a G1 through horses like Campeador and Swamp Fox myself.
I'm already on record as stating it was a mighty performance from Faugheen, and have no real quibble with a rating of 169 myself. However, I would not rate a G1 through horses like Campeador and Swamp Fox myself.
they afforded him a 168+ rating, 169 is the timefigure. Here's how they judge the ground : https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/timefigures/timeform_computer_timefigures_explained They basically take it into account but I've looked around at all of their top time figures and none other than Faugheen's came in soft or worse ground, most of them came during the spring festivals.
As for rating horses through other horses, thats handicapping and I was making more or less the same point Barry Geraghty made yesterday regarding Swamp Fox who's a decent flat horse, came in top form on back of a big win, a neck from winning the Galaway and his jockey was pushing along at the 4th last while the other Campeador, a 152 rated hurdler was out of breath 2 out. The point was taking Jezki out of it. Its a monstrous performance any way you look at it but I think I agree with you its v. hard to put a concrete figure on it.
As for rating horses through other horses, thats handicapping and I was making more or less the same point Barry Geraghty made yesterday regarding Swamp Fox who's a decent flat horse, came in top form on back of a big win, a neck from winning the Galaway and his jockey was pushing along at the 4th last while the other Campeador, a 152 rated hurdler was out of breath 2 out. The point was taking Jezki out of it. Its a monstrous performance any way you look at it but I think I agree with you its v. hard to put a concrete figure on it.
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Grasshopper
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Like I say, I don't necessarily dispute the figure awarded to Faugheen - I just don't think it's as concrete as you are making out........or at least, there are some reasons for mild caution.
Jezki isn't necessarily guaranteed to give his running these days, and the form of the Istabraq Hurdle is likely not so strong as it seemed at the time. He received a half-stone from a horse that needed at least a half-mile further, and his handicap-mark coming out of that race (155) might have been too generous (or punitive, depending on how you look at it).
Campeador was probably undone to an extent by the ground, and is almost-certainly badly handicapped, after being raised 7lbs for winning a race full of chasers getting sighters in. Hard to know what else supports his OR of 152, other than when he was comfortably-beaten by Apples Jade, on his first run for Elliot. Any way I look at it, there are question-marks about just how good he is.
Much the same applies to Swamp Fox, who got bounced-up 15lbs for not winning two good handicaps - the second of which came on Heavy; a surface where he has routinely disappointed. I do not give a tinker's cuss about his Flat form, which is wholly-irrelevant, as far as I'm concerned.
I say none of this to run Faugheen down. It's intended to demonstrate that the value of the form is open to interpretation - the quality of the performance is almost certainly not.
Jezki isn't necessarily guaranteed to give his running these days, and the form of the Istabraq Hurdle is likely not so strong as it seemed at the time. He received a half-stone from a horse that needed at least a half-mile further, and his handicap-mark coming out of that race (155) might have been too generous (or punitive, depending on how you look at it).
Campeador was probably undone to an extent by the ground, and is almost-certainly badly handicapped, after being raised 7lbs for winning a race full of chasers getting sighters in. Hard to know what else supports his OR of 152, other than when he was comfortably-beaten by Apples Jade, on his first run for Elliot. Any way I look at it, there are question-marks about just how good he is.
Much the same applies to Swamp Fox, who got bounced-up 15lbs for not winning two good handicaps - the second of which came on Heavy; a surface where he has routinely disappointed. I do not give a tinker's cuss about his Flat form, which is wholly-irrelevant, as far as I'm concerned.
I say none of this to run Faugheen down. It's intended to demonstrate that the value of the form is open to interpretation - the quality of the performance is almost certainly not.
Yes I immediately realized I agree on the difficulty of placing a rating only on handicap merits. Regardless, the timefigure has nothing to do with any of the other horses in the race, race time sectionals are judged by a calculator so it takes all the bias away.. and its the 2nd highest achieved, without Paul Townend pressing all the buttons.. just amazing IMO
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Grasshopper
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I have been unable to discuss times in NH races, since the departure of EC1 - it makes me too emotional.
:lol:
:lol:
Interesting reading on the different interpretations on Faugheen’s performance. My own initial thoughts were that visually it was very good. He quickened impressively 2 out to beat Jezki by 16L. Jezki had looked good on his seasonal reappearance beating the Mullins trained Coquin Mans. Then again Jezki had looked good on his seasonal reappearance last year too beating Renneti and Tombstone quite comfortably before been firmly put in his place for the rest of the year. Perhaps the best time to catch the former champ is first time out when fresh so that took the gloss off it slightly for me.
Still curious to delve more, I was listening to The Final Furlong Podcast in the car this morning on the commute to work. Rory Delargy was on and was talking about how, since last Friday, that Timeform are now publishing their time figures for jumps races after compiling them for the last while. They put Faugheen’s performance at 6lbs inferior to his Irish Champion Hurdle demolition job in January 2016 and at 2lbs above Buveur D’Air’s Champion Hurdle win last year.
Very interesting reading for both sides of the argument. Firstly it shows that Faugheen’s performance was indeed impressive and he has come back to very near his brilliant best. However given the fact we know that the horse was very straight for this race, along with the fact that he will be 10 on New Years Day there is very little, if no room for improvement at all.
Now allow for the fact that Buveur D’Air’s Champion Hurdle win was only his second ever race in open company, his first was a non event in the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown last February in which he cruised through, having come back from an initial start over fences. He would’ve done more on the Lambourn gallops at home. Bearing that in mind now allow for the fact that as a 6yo winning the champion hurdle there is every possibility that there will be more improvement to come from BD this year having a full campaign over hurdles with Tuesday 12 March 2018 as his target from this summer. The Champion Hurdle target this year will not just be a late January derail off the Arkle/JLT express line.
His hurdling technique has always been very good and he was very slick last March just hitting the top bar of the 5th. He is a better jumper of hurdles that Faugheen, no question there and the ears were pricked all the way up the hill. There was plenty left in the tank.
I’m biased but this all points to a Buveur D’air win come next March. Faugheen will be the toughest opponent he’ll have met but make no mistake about it Faugheen will not have faced the quality and class of Buveur D’air either.
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Still curious to delve more, I was listening to The Final Furlong Podcast in the car this morning on the commute to work. Rory Delargy was on and was talking about how, since last Friday, that Timeform are now publishing their time figures for jumps races after compiling them for the last while. They put Faugheen’s performance at 6lbs inferior to his Irish Champion Hurdle demolition job in January 2016 and at 2lbs above Buveur D’Air’s Champion Hurdle win last year.
Very interesting reading for both sides of the argument. Firstly it shows that Faugheen’s performance was indeed impressive and he has come back to very near his brilliant best. However given the fact we know that the horse was very straight for this race, along with the fact that he will be 10 on New Years Day there is very little, if no room for improvement at all.
Now allow for the fact that Buveur D’Air’s Champion Hurdle win was only his second ever race in open company, his first was a non event in the Contenders Hurdle at Sandown last February in which he cruised through, having come back from an initial start over fences. He would’ve done more on the Lambourn gallops at home. Bearing that in mind now allow for the fact that as a 6yo winning the champion hurdle there is every possibility that there will be more improvement to come from BD this year having a full campaign over hurdles with Tuesday 12 March 2018 as his target from this summer. The Champion Hurdle target this year will not just be a late January derail off the Arkle/JLT express line.
His hurdling technique has always been very good and he was very slick last March just hitting the top bar of the 5th. He is a better jumper of hurdles that Faugheen, no question there and the ears were pricked all the way up the hill. There was plenty left in the tank.
I’m biased but this all points to a Buveur D’air win come next March. Faugheen will be the toughest opponent he’ll have met but make no mistake about it Faugheen will not have faced the quality and class of Buveur D’air either.
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Nice write-up Kauto, just few points. Rory was talking about the timefigures(they started doing those for jumps since 2014/5) not his performance rating which they placed higher in Buv's CH(170+) than Faugheen's comeback(168+).
Regarding Faugheen's opponents quality, I hope you're right and Buv proves a worthy one but .. and I'm not saying its your case, however some people will still say Buv won a weak CH and Faugheen basically beat nothing, so if you're not convinced Faugheen already beat the same or better quality animals of what Buvshowed up to now, then you'll never be. Oh and I get that you're hoping he'll improve but he has to anyways.
You're right, Faugheen's not a great jumper but imagine that he gets all the hurdles right and is not losing couple of lengths at some(in Morgiana he made 3 mistakes, came in short at one in the backstraight, met the 4th last and last completely wrong) of the hurdles, how much improvement do you think that'll make? Or that the jockey doesn't stops riding him in the last furlong? For me, he's already an 180 hurdler, if he improves his jumping he could be 5-10 lbs better. If you think his first run of the season is all he can do, history proves you wrong.
Regarding Faugheen's opponents quality, I hope you're right and Buv proves a worthy one but .. and I'm not saying its your case, however some people will still say Buv won a weak CH and Faugheen basically beat nothing, so if you're not convinced Faugheen already beat the same or better quality animals of what Buvshowed up to now, then you'll never be. Oh and I get that you're hoping he'll improve but he has to anyways.
You're right, Faugheen's not a great jumper but imagine that he gets all the hurdles right and is not losing couple of lengths at some(in Morgiana he made 3 mistakes, came in short at one in the backstraight, met the 4th last and last completely wrong) of the hurdles, how much improvement do you think that'll make? Or that the jockey doesn't stops riding him in the last furlong? For me, he's already an 180 hurdler, if he improves his jumping he could be 5-10 lbs better. If you think his first run of the season is all he can do, history proves you wrong.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Geezuz you talk some crap..Faugheen is A 180 hurdler but could improve up to 10lbs......Yup that would make him 190 the highest rated hurdler in history and 8lbs superior to Night Nurse:lol:
You're clueless
You're clueless
archie
Senior Jockey
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
I'll not be rushing to take 9/4 about a horse we know is fragile, no matter how good he is.