The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
Ascot will be interesting and could decide for JP the route to take with Defi Du Seuil if enough of them turn up to create a true run race

It also could become a tactical mess with Lil Rocky given a free hand to cut out the pace while L'ami and Defi stalk him.

My worry would be a sprint from between the last and 2 out transpires .Defi wins by a hard fought half length and that would tell us nothing we don't already know.
 
Timeform's Simon Rowlands analysis: https://www.theirishfield.ie/simon-rowlands-fantastic-faugheen-brilliant-on-comeback-325548/

FAUGHEEN is back. Indeed it is almost as if he had never been away!

But away he had been – for 665 days to be precise. When Faugheen last raced, we were five months before the Brexit vote and a year before Donald Trump moved into the White House. Much has changed in the meantime, then, but not the ability of the 2015 Champion Hurdler it would seem.

That may seem a bold assertion to make about a horse who beat just three rivals in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown last Sunday, but it is possible to make it thanks to the evidence of the clock. Time analysis has more worth in some contexts than in others, but nowhere is it more useful than in providing a universal benchmark when there are few guides to the merit of a performance otherwise.

The facts are that Faugheen won the Morgiana in an overall time 7.7s (around half a furlong) faster than 136-rated Top Othe Ra took to win a useful handicap hurdle earlier on the card. Most of that difference came early in the race, but Faugheen still managed to be quicker in all closing sectionals with the exception of the run-in, by when he was coasting.

Faugheen’s time measures up very well against other races over hurdles on the card, as well as with those on the previous day (which started on the inner course but are thereafter comparable).

All the stopwatch signs are that his 16-length thrashing of the 2014 Champion Hurdler Jezki – not the force he once was, but still capable – with Campeador a dozen or so lengths behind that one when coming down at the last, was out of the top drawer.

I have a 169 timefigure for Faugheen on this effort, which is one higher than achieved by Buveur D’Air in winning the Champion Hurdle earlier this year and makes Faugheen the quickest performer to be seen over hurdles or fences so far this season. It really does look that good.

Where the future is concerned, there has to be some caution regarding a horse with Faugheen’s training history who will be a 10-year-old next March. Only Hatton’s Grace in 1950 and Sea Pigeon in 1980 have won the Champion Hurdle at such an advanced age (and both followed up as 11-year-olds).

But Faugheen is still very good – Champion Hurdle-winning good – as this is what the clock says after the weekend. It is great to have him back!
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Hurricane Fly won the Morgiana 20 seconds faster than Faugheen won his Novice Hurdle on the same day which is about as meaningless as that post

Nichols Canyon was 8 seconds faster than Faugheen Hurricane Fly was about 8 seconds slower one year..they were all much faster than the other hurdle races on the day.

Faugheen took fully 4 minutes to run the race in Soft to Heavy whatever that is mean to be in comparison to soft or heavy...was it more soft than heavy or more heavy than soft.

Will all mean nothing come March when Buvi shoots past him on the way to victory
 
Tanlic said:
Hurricane Fly won the Morgiana 20 seconds faster than Faugheen won his Novice Hurdle on the same day which is about as meaningless as that post
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Not unless your mind is completely shattered and ready for the bin. No serious handicapper would only look at 1 race, especially no one will take a slowly run race into consideration for judging race time figures. There are standard times for 2 mile races, for different grounds and timeform has gathered sectionals data for all jumps courses in order to have a complete picture of the times posted and make valid judgement calls. In your specific case just after the Morgiana, a 119 rated handicap hurdler finished his race 4 seconds faster with 18lbs lower on yielding ground thats about 3.5 seconds, hence 0.5 faster than the winner of the G1 who btw just looking at the form only beat a 130 horse by 1 length. Thats so weak that the race could've been downgraded to a class 2 event.

Tanlic said:
Nichols Canyon was 8 seconds faster than Faugheen Hurricane Fly was about 8 seconds slower one year..they were all much faster than the other hurdle races on the day. Faugheen took fully 4 minutes to run the race in Soft to Heavy whatever that is mean to be in comparison to soft or heavy...was it more soft than heavy or more heavy than soft.
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Do you even understand what you're saying? heavy slow faster 8 seconds one year? Why are you combining all these random facts? White sky deep sea green forest.. the rambling is easy but its hard to undermine with it a professional like Simon Rowlands who's knowledge is light years ahead of you.

Tanlic said:
Will all mean nothing come March when Buvi shoots past him on the way to victory
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Don't day dream too much, you've done it long enough with Douvan and that was costly, wasn't it?
 
The point I am making is this was nothing special in fact look back 2 years ago when he ran in the same race on Soft to Heavy..both races were 14 second slow but faugheen took 2 seconds longer to win than he did to lose to N.Canyon as the ground no doubt was slightly different.

Rowlands gets paid to hype up racing whenever he can and get create interest in their product...only starstruck groupies think he's some sort of Deity
 
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That was poor if there isn’t an excuse. He did land awkwardly on top of a flattened hurdle early on.


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Clearly disappointed, but that was certainly not DDS's true running. Finishing a bundle of lengths behind Wakea tells us that.

I've gone in again at 20/1 (each-way) for the Champion Hurdle. Price is an over-reaction.
 
A case of :- Stronger the pace the further an unfit horse will be beaten.

I'd bet on him being less than 8/1 after his next run
 
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TheBear said:
That was poor if there isn’t an excuse. He did land awkwardly on top of a flattened hurdle early on.
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Was wearing a hood in the parade ring but not the race :confused:

Examined by veterinary officer post race, no abnormalities found.
 
He’ll be running in the County Hurdle come March. Shades of Ivanovich Gorbatov about this fella.


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Id Defi ends up a chump there will be martial law on this forum with regards to anyone ever again talking of a triumph horse as anything other than a dirty flat rat
 
Kauto Abu said:
He’ll be running in the County Hurdle come March. Shades of Ivanovich Gorbatov about this fella.


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Appreciate you are probably in a state of mental shock about your BDA bets, after having seen Faugheen’s return, KA.......but that’s no excuse for flannel such as this.

I will be standing-by, ready to remind you of this statement in March. :cool:
 
I await with anticipation Grass. As for the mental shock, my bets are on the CHAMPION hurdler..I remain supremely confident of BD ability, as I’ve always done. What would he have done to that lot yesterday? Eat them without salt in the same manner as Faugheen last weekend is the answer.


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There is a line with Campeador previous race through Wakea, so he would've needed to win BDM street style to properly enjoy his meal like Faugheen did last week :lol:

Defi was very disapointing and I'm not sure 20/1 is such an over-reaction. I remember P&C few years ago, was higher rated and had a similar debut in older company. Things only got worse. Same for Ivanovich G.
 
granger said:
Id Defi ends up a chump there will be martial law on this forum with regards to anyone ever again talking of a triumph horse as anything other than a dirty flat rat
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It should become a general rule for punters, don't bet for the CH on Triumph horses until after their first start in open company.
 
My only Singles* on Defi for the Champion Hurdle, were struck after his defeat yesterday; firstly when he was pushed to 14/1, and again when he was pushed to 20/1.

Yorkhill, Min and Apples Jade are all shorter in the Champion Hurdle market, and yet the strong likelihood is that none of them will run. He is also the same price as Limini and Lets Dance - neither of whom will run if Faugheen gets there.

As per previous, I was obviously hoping for and expecting better yesterday from Defi. But when I look at the market dispassionately, I can’t get away from 20/1 looking a knocking each-way price, because the head of the market will fall apart, and there isn’t anything else that is progressive-looking enough, to emerge as a genuine threat to the front two.



* For clarity, I have Defi in a handful of early Yankees and Canadians at 8/1. Admittedly, that price doesn’t look to smart right now.
 
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