The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
Who's writing him off..all I am saying is people don't realize how good a horse Buvi is.

I think he's ahead of what Faugheen was at his best.

All this Faugheen is as good as ever is nonsense IMO and come March he wont have a scoobie
 
You’re right Tanlic. Buveur D’Air was the better of the two when they first arrived as proved by his British debut in early 2014. He was just touched off by Barters Hill with Altior back in 3rd. Altior seemed to grow and strengthen quicker than BD through the novice hurdle season, BD met with an early season setback which didn’t help matters, but that graph seemed to equal out again last year.

The word filtering through from seven barrows tonight is that there’s loads of improvement in terms of fitness to come for BD. He was ‘fat’ going to Newbury 10 days ago for a gallop, according to Corky Brown this evening, and still ‘pudgy’ according to Henderson himself today when commenting at Newbury earlier today. Faugheen on the other hand was seriously forward for his seasonal debut.

I’ve been beating the drum here for BD for a long while, often alone. Very few here saw his credentials as a potential champion last March. I’ve backed him in every race he’s ran in since Barters Hill touched him in that Newbury bumper. I see improvement in him physically in him again this year and that improvement will be crucial in lowering the colours of Faugheen. His hurdling today again was exemplary and it’s a huge edge he holds over Faugheen.


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Ardross said:
Very impressive - he and Faugheen should be disputing favouritism . At this time of the year I would not be keen to take 13-8 Faugheen turning up let alone winning .
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You realize at this time 3 years ago with Faugheen all to prove, was exactly this price against 2 previous champions and no collateral form? Now after we learned so much about Faugheen, with his comeback and with so much untapped potential still, you think anyone will want to lay him for 3s? The only reason he's 13/8 is because people were burnt in the last 2 years when he hasn't turned up.

As soon as nrnb applies he's going odds-on, if he gets there on race day will start 4/6, 1/2 or lower. Hopefully Hendo had more than a talk with Mullins today and convinced him to keep them apart until the festival, with the side effect for punters that his odds won't become unbackable if they do meet and Faugheen'll bring the conclusion to a halt for BDair backers.
 
Lets hope they are kept apart and don't get injured because without that potential clash this race is absolute pony.
 
It'll become a sham if they don't both arrive there in good health.

Just rewatched the FF, BDair is a magnificent jumper of a hurdle unlike Faugheen who's putting them down and it not as agile when coming in too close, he's build more as a chaser and due to his size he simply disregards them and in the process loses momentum and lengths, while BDair jumps them like they're not there. As @Kauto says, the jumping department holds him in a huge edge over Faugheen.
 
Aughex, considering Faugheen’s age going into next years CH, his injuries over the past 2 years, allowing for the reigning champion hurdler lining up against him (touch wood) next March and possibly allowing for the fact that BD has much more room for improvement in him (Faugheen clearly does not) & could be rated higher than him come March (what’ll he get bumped between now & then) you’re crazy if you think Faugheen goes off 4/6 or lower.


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Faugheen still hasn't put the best performance forward. What he did in Irish CH 2 years ago was only a preview, he needs to do it at Cheltenham so the horses in behind aren't considered couple of stones below their best. If you think age is an issue just watch his comeback race, that doesn't look like a horse that lost his speed with ageing. Regarding his odds, I might be wrong about starting lower than 1/2 but it'll near it, no point guessing so far out but it'll surely drop to odds-on once the nrnb kicks in.
 
Officially, according to the handicapper, Faugheen has put his best performance forward. That Irish CH performance was it. It’s of great merit to the horse after injury that 2 years on he comes within 2lbs of that rating and as a horse rising 10 yo there’s absolutely no room for improvement!! I think we all agree there.

However with Jezki in behind last time, that rating is still questionable indeed. BD today was within 3lbs of Faugheen officially. That could very well change further with Kempton at Christmas, if Geraghty feels like extending him.

This is only going one way lads. The future’s bright.....the future’s green & gold.


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No we don't agree. His best days in terms of ratings potential is still ahead. Faugheen has never truly reached it. In his first CH(where usually there's the chance of getting high marks), Ruby kept it very tactical as he had 2 champions to beat. He arrived there with no prep race. Failed to win comprehensively. From there on there was never a proper chance to reach the high rating I think he's capable of. He did a preview in the Irish CH when NC rider and some analysts foolishly thought by taking him on he'll make mistakes, turns out by going at high speed Faugheen jumped better and destroyed them even more, which gave Ruby a lesson in how to ride him and on comeback thats what he told Paul to do, go fast see if retains his ability.

If he gets to the CH, thats when he can fully show his potential in terms of ratings as there won't be any more tactics, there'll be only go hard and take no survivors. They need to get BDair used to that instead of going walks in the park like today(which is understandable on his first run) because up until this point there hasn't been a horse in Faugheen's career that was able to withstand his full speed gallop, from the Neptune to his last race. Those who tried to live with it paid a worse price(Cole Harden in Neptune, Jezki in the CH, NC in the Irish CH).

Your only advantage his is age and jumping, the only obstacle for you is Faugheen's incredible talent that no horse has been blessed with, he could take home 3 hurdles in the CH and still win but hopefully jumps well and puts up a figure that marks him as the best there's been. 176 is unsatisfactory given he was eased up when achieving it and that wasn't taken into account, only by TF with a +..
 
Really all Faugheen has over Buvi is he's won slightly more nothing races than he has.

TBH Did you ever see such trash competing in grade 1 and 2 hurdles?

Even when he met decent animals like The New One (1/2 length in front of Hargam) at Kempton they ran like drains.

Arctic Fire had gone after Cheltenham and took 15 months to recover.

His best performance has to be his Champion Hurdle win.no excuses for anything he won but nowhere near as convincingly as expected by his army of fans...........there definitely was an air of disappointed after the race.

If he can come back to his best which has to be doubtful at his age then he will make Buveur D'air pull out the stops but a year on and a year stronger I reckon the'll collar him with ease.
 
The suggestion that BDA has achieved a higher level of 2m hurdles form than Faugheen ever managed, is fantasist fu*cking nonsense.
 
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for the sake of tradition, its worth pointing out the record of fighting fifth winners in the champion hurdle.
 
Aughex said:
No we don't agree. His best days in terms of ratings potential is still ahead. Faugheen has never truly reached it. In his first CH(where usually there's the chance of getting high marks), Ruby kept it very tactical as he had 2 champions to beat.
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Have I missed something here? He’s only run in the one champion hurdle? 10 March 2015.


He arrived there with no prep race. Failed to win comprehensively.
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He raced in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot in November 14 & the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton in December 14. You’re making him sound like My Tent or Yours in the ‘16 champion. Now there’s a horse with no prep race. Mullins chose to keep him fresh for Cheltenham after Christmas.



If he gets to the CH, thats when he can fully show his potential in terms of ratings as there won't be any more tactics, there'll be only go hard and take no survivors. They need to get BDair used to that instead of going walks in the park like today(which is understandable on his first run) because up until this point there hasn't been a horse in Faugheen's career that was able to withstand his full speed gallop, from the Neptune to his last race. Those who tried to live with it paid a worse price(Cole Harden in Neptune, Jezki in the CH, NC in the Irish CH).
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This is where it’s gets interesting. Comparing Faugheen’s Champion Hurdle win in 2015 with Buveur D’air’s in 2016 it’s clear to see there’s little separating the two horses. Faugheen ran his in 3m 50.90 seconds, BD ran 3m 51.5 seconds. The Turftrax archive for the two races show a going stick reading of 6.9 for Faugheen in 2015 and a slightly slower ground reading of 6.5 with BD last year which possibly allows for the time discrepancy of the race times. That Buveur clocked that on slower ground is impressive in itself, it’s not a massive difference and thus allows us to somewhat compare both races as the difference is not huge.

On top of that, split screening the two races & timing them from both leaders jumping the 1st hurdle to crossing the line Petit Mouchoir has taken them along last year at a greater clip than Faugheen did in 2015, so there’s absolutely no fear of Buveur D’air winning in the fashion he did yesterday. He’s been there, bought the T shirt & still wearing it!! Petit Mouchoir set far harder fractions than Faugheen did in 2015, at one stage 2 out he was over 3 seconds ahead of where Faugheen was in 2015....this remember on slightly slower ground. BD would have used a lot more petrol to cruise along at that pace. Faugheen injected his pace in between the last 2 and they are practically jumping the last together (Buv a split fraction ahead). If they both raced in the same race it probably would’ve went to a photo finish as they crossed the line.

Your only advantage his is age and jumping, the only obstacle for you is Faugheen's incredible talent that no horse has been blessed with
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That now looks a huge advantage tho given the above comparison. Allowing for BD improving again this year which both his trainer and jockey alluded to yesterday. Unlike you I can’t for the world of me see any further improvement in Faugheen as a horse rising 10 in January and most here will agree with that. He was very fit for his reappearance in the Morgiana this year so there’s no room for improvement on that front. His trainer commented on how forward he was compared to other years. He ran 2lbs below his highest official rating. Allowing for the Buv’s age and his superior hurdling technique, a full term in open hurdling company this year unlike last season, it all points to improving a few lengths again on last years win. Can Faugheen as a 10 yo coming back from an injury improve to where BD will be come next March?? I think not.



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Interesting reading that Kauto. It seems blindingly obvious then that JP/Hendo need to have one in the field to ensure Faugheen doesn’t get an easy time of it up front.


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Firstly, Faugheen may be rising 10yo, but has few miles on the clock, and only has 5 more hurdles starts than BDA.

Secondly, the suggestion that he can’t improve on his Morgiana run, is chancey, imo. Whatever level of fitness he was at, a run would be sure to bring him on to some degree, as it does with 99% of racehorses.

Thirdly, the best of Faugheen’s form is indisputably superior to BDA’s. In fact, it’s not even close.

I do admire the way that KA has had his colours drilled to Buveur’s mast foe a long while, and refuses to contemplate defeat - ably supported by McManus’s number-one cheerleader on the Orient, but their assessment of BDA’s level - insofar as they compare him to Faugheen’s best - is not grounded in reality, imo.

The best they can hope for is that Fagheen bounces at some point; either in (one of) his preps, or the Champion itself....or that his injury flares up again. Because if the old Faugheen turns up next March, BDA will be facing a class of horse in a different Universe, to anything else that he has had to take-on since he returned to hurdling. Horses like MTOY and Irving wouldn’t get within an asses-roar of Faugheen, under any circumstances.

The difference in running styles between the pair should make for a highly-compelling event. Lets hope both make it at 100%.
 
I’d say they’d both fall in the camp of facing a better rival than they’ve met before.


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Spot on Bear. I think too many are seeing that argument one way.

I also have nothing between them and see more reasons for Buveur D'Air to improve to a higher level than Faugheen may be capable of this season. That said Faugheen was mightily impressive on debut, and I'd say that's the level of performance that Buveur D'Air has to beat in March. I can't see Fuagheen improving more than a couple of pounds come March.

That is far from a given though, but for now I'd prefer to be with the progressive horse, and would like to think that Buveur D'Air can improve again on what he did last season. If he does I'm pretty confident that'll be too much for Faugheen, although I don't see more than a length or so between them up the hill.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Firstly, Faugheen may be rising 10yo, but has few miles on the clock, and only has 5 more hurdles starts than BDA.

Secondly, the suggestion that he can’t improve on his Morgiana run, is chancey, imo. Whatever level of fitness he was at, a run would be sure to bring him on to some degree, as it does with 99% of racehorses.

Thirdly, the best of Faugheen’s form is indisputably superior to BDA’s. In fact, it’s not even close.

I do admire the way that KA has had his colours drilled to Buveur’s mast foe a long while, and refuses to contemplate defeat - ably supported by McManus’s number-one cheerleader on the Orient, but their assessment of BDA’s level - insofar as they compare him to Faugheen’s best - is not grounded in reality, imo.

The best they can hope for is that Fagheen bounces at some point; either in (one of) his preps, or the Champion itself....or that his injury flares up again. Because if the old Faugheen turns up next March, BDA will be facing a class of horse in a different Universe, to anything else that he has had to take-on since he returned to hurdling. Horses like MTOY and Irving wouldn’t get within an asses-roar of Faugheen, under any circumstances.

The difference in running styles between the pair should make for a highly-compelling event. Lets hope both make it at 100%.
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You must be joking re MTOY. The horse is only fully fit once a year and has finished 2nd 3 times in the Champion.

Lets look at this professionally and maybe you will learn something.

Tell me if I get any of this wrong.

MTOY and the New One have met several times in races other than the Champion Hurdle.
more often than not TNO has come out on top.

Come Champion Hurdle day MTOY has always beaten TNO.

TNO has been beaten roughly between 6 lengths and 8 lengths and while faugheen beat him further than Anni and Buvi he was badly hampered that year.

It seems to me that it would be very fair to say that if MTOY had he run in Faugheen's Champion Hurdle on all known CH form is absolutely nothing to suggest he would have not have been right there well ahead of TNO once again>

On that I would say you are the one spouting shyte unless you can find some gigantic hole in my analysis:cool:
 
Can i just clarify that I never said BD has achieved more than Faugheen. Yesterday was his 4th ever race in open company for God sakes!!! But he is only a few pounds shy of Faugheen on official ratings and my source in the yard said he was only at 75% yesterday. He will improve massively throughout this season and will surpass Faugheen come spring. My earlier experiment of split screening the 2 champion hurdles had them photo finishing together and that’s after BD raced on slower ground and much faster fractions.



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Grasshopper said:
Firstly, Faugheen may be rising 10yo, but has few miles on the clock, and only has 5 more hurdles starts than BDA.

Secondly, the suggestion that he can’t improve on his Morgiana run, is chancey, imo. Whatever level of fitness he was at, a run would be sure to bring him on to some degree, as it does with 99% of racehorses.
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Granted it does. But most other race horses aren’t kept in training throughout the spring and the whole summer without a run. They are brought back in late summer with 9-10 weeks work before the see a racecourse, hence the improvement! Faugheen was kept ticking over during that time before his serious work started in the autumn to really ready him for the course again, he had 15-20 weeks done when the winter horses were coming back in to knock the summer grass off them. They were literally afraid he’d put on too much weight if they let him off for a break so they kept him going hence avoiding any strain if a heavy horse came back. The way Townend rode him in the Morgianna was a testament to how sure of his fitness they were. You could see muscle definition on the animals body instead of a spare tyre as he left for the course. The horse was very fit.

Thirdly, the best of Faugheen’s form is indisputably superior to BDA’s. In fact, it’s not even close
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There is very little way to determine this unless it’s opinion based or you do a split screen like I done earlier which puts BD right up there with Faugheen’s s 2015 win. The other way is to compare the 1 horse they have both met in a champion hurdle is The New One. Faugheen beat him by 8 and three quarters of a length into 5th, Buveur D’Air beat him 10 and three quarters into 5th. Slagging off My Tent holds no merit either. Annie power, getting 7lbs, beat MTOY 4 and a half lengths and was heralded a wonder mare. That was MTOY first race of the year. Buveur D’Air beat a race fit MTOY off equal weights and gets slagged off for it!!!



The best they can hope for is that Fagheen bounces at some point; either in (one of) his preps, or the Champion itself....or that his injury flares up again.
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No, I wont hope for that. I hope he turns up the best condition he possibly can as I fully believe Buveur D’Air will take care of him & undoubtably that’s the only way he’ll get true recognition.




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