The Road To The 2018 Champion Hurdle

Who will win the 2018 CH

  • Buveur D'Air

    Votes: 17 54.8%

  • Faugheen

    Votes: 10 32.3%

  • Other

    Votes: 4 12.9%
  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .
Ryle said in it she loves Faugheen and thinks he’ll win. Blake reckons he mightn’t even get there.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Kauto Abu said:
Interesting to hear Kevin Blake & Vanessa Ryle both reference a quote from Willie Mullins on the Final Furlong Podcast in reviewing the Fighting Fifth. Mullins basically said he reckoned he had Faugheen 85% fit going into the Morgianna but after his win he had to reevaluate that to some where very near 100% fit as there’s no wit he could produce that at 85%!!

Which supports a lot of what I’ve been saying here. Where does the improvement come from going ahead and when do they give him a break?

Buveur on the other hand has massive scope for improvement. Fat & pudgy were words Henderson used to describe him in the build up to last Saturday.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


Even if we assume you're right, KA, Faugheen's performance was clearly vastly superior - in strict form terms - to Buveuer's in the Fighting Fifth.

You ask where the improvement is going to come from for Faugheen. Based on his Morgiana run, he doesn't really need to improve - it's Buveur D'Air who needs to do that, and I'm taking about improvement from his Champion Hurdle outing, not his trot round Newcastle against a bunch of inferior horses.
 
Of course it was superior. Faugheen’s virtually 100% fit in November, Buv is nowhere’s near it. It’s like Sandown really last year. BD could’ve won by as much as Geraghty wanted him to win by.

Plus remember Irving beat Apples Jade last year in the same renewal, that hasn’t worked out to bad. It’s Irvings Champion Hurdle! Apples Jade thrashed Nichols Canyon on Sunday who beat Jezki 30L into 8th in the World Hurdle. Go back to Jezki’s Tipperary win and Ex Patriot is back in 3rd is all you need to know about that form line.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Hattons Grace on soft ground has zero bearing.

Irving Schmirving. He beat Tiger Roll - a 140 handicapper - a length. That’s the level he ran to. BDA has hacked-up, but hasn’t run even close to 160 to win.

This has absolutely no bearing on BDA’s Champion Hurdle chance either, because he won without ever coming out of second gear, but it’s best not to try and crack the FF up to be something it patently is not.
 
Last edited:
If that’s the way you look at it presumably you’ll be questioning Jezkis rating considering Swamp Fox was in trouble very early in Morgiana and tailed off in HG Sunday. He beat 143 rated Ex Patriot & Jers Girl 4-5 L at Tipperary.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I questioned Jezki’s rating after he win the Tipp Hurdle, but have it a shitload higher than 141!

Cards on the table. What mark do you think BDA ran to at Newcastle?
 
Grasshopper said:
I questioned Jezki’s rating after he win the Tipp Hurdle, but have it a shitload higher than 141!

Cards on the table. What mark do you think BDA ran to at Newcastle?
Click to expand...

I don’t do ratings myself GH, I go more by form line and visuals rather than some of the number crunchers on here who do their own ratings, I wouldn’t have the patience or time for that. Think there was a thread on this last year (form lines v ratings) where I put fwd my case for the former so honestly I wouldn’t know about how to start marking him up. How do you interpret what rating he’d have gotten if Geraghty had pushed the button. That, in my opinion, is the flaw with marking up ratings. Everyone said after Sandown last year he’d have to find 10+ pounds to win a champion. Trouble was he didn’t. He was a lot more value for his win at Sandown than the ratings allowed for. I think he’ll prove to be more for Newcastle in time too.

I am however certain, as I was last year, that this horse is a monster and there is so much more improvement again this year and his jockey & trainer alluded to that too. He will have surpassed Faugheen’s rating at the end of this year. I am also certain that Faugheen, as a 10yo, will not improve on his current mark giving that his trainer said live on ATR at the end of Fairyhouse last Sunday he was all most at 100% fitness.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Willie says a lot without saying a thing. That's why he is a master.

he isn't going to divulge everything and be sure there is more they can do with Faugheen.

the FF was an awful awful race, no one can doubt that
 
Indeed it was. But so was the contenders at Sandown!!


PS. Henderson’s THE Master. [emoji41]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Kauto Abu said:
I don’t do ratings myself GH, I go more by form line and visuals rather than some of the number crunchers on here who do their own ratings, I wouldn’t have the patience or time for that. Think there was a thread on this last year (form lines v ratings) where I put fwd my case for the former so honestly I wouldn’t know about how to start marking him up. How do you interpret what rating he’d have gotten if Geraghty had pushed the button. That, in my opinion, is the flaw with marking up ratings. Everyone said after Sandown last year he’d have to find 10+ pounds to win a champion. Trouble was he didn’t. He was a lot more value for his win at Sandown than the ratings allowed for. I think he’ll prove to be more for Newcastle in time too.

I am however certain, as I was last year, that this horse is a monster and there is so much more improvement again this year and his jockey & trainer alluded to that too. He will have surpassed Faugheen’s rating at the end of this year. I am also certain that Faugheen, as a 10yo, will not improve on his current mark giving that his trainer said live on ATR at the end of Fairyhouse last Sunday he was all most at 100% fitness.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Fair enough, KA. Not everyone likes to hang a number on a performance, though in the absence of one, it’s hard to get into a detailed assessment of where we might differ.

Insofar as BDA’s Newcastle run is concerned, it is effectively meaningless from a ratings perspective. If forced to give one, it would be in the high-140’s for me, but with so many +’s after it, they would run off the page. My point being that the race should basically be ignored in the context of assessing BDA’s level. It proved little more than he still has a leg on each corner, and remains head-and-shoulders above the limited opposition he faced. You can’t read any more than that into the race, and trying to build a collateral-form case around Irving to demonstrate his superiority, is both pointless and unneccessary.

I’m genuinely a huge fan of BDA, and fully understand your enthusiasm for the horse. I guess I just think that Faugheen commands a little more respect than you’re perhaps affording him, and that your apparent undimmed confidence is maybe a little bit misplaced.

At his best in the 2016 ICH, Faugheen put up a better 2m hurdle performance than even my beloved Fly managed in his illustrious career......and if I’m prepared to admit as much, then I can’t understand why others would fail to acknowledge it too. By any measure, Faugheen was, and hopefully remains, a great, great hurdler - right up there knocking with the very best (including Istabraq, and the hurdling stars of the 70’s) - and he should, in my view, be afforded the recognition this deserves. A prolonged absence from the racecourse should not be allowed to diminish his achievements beforehand.

As I say, he seems to be the only serious threat to BDA at this stage........but if he does retain all his ability, I think he is a much graver threat than you are perhaps prepared to concede.

I wish you all the best with BDA, and offer a sincere apology for being an unnecessarily, narky cu*nt yesterday. :cool:
 
Last edited:
No probs Grass, appreciate that and definitely no hard feelings here.

Re ratings & Newcastle you’re right in a way. For me Newcastle proves that he’s alive and well and I know he hasn’t regressed and that’s the main thing. If he came out & needed to work to beat that lot then maybe numbers might be more important. But he ran to a level the handicapper deemed to be 169 last year. My line of thinking is there’s nothing to suggest he can’t run to that again and with room for improvement as a 6yo surpass Faugheen this year. Geraghty mentioned he seemed far more physical this year than last and seemed to be really coming to himself. If he’s only doing that now and has physically improved on last year that’s a massive plus in my mind already.

Regarding form lines, I do tend to look into them more than the next fella. It works for me I find & if I get a feel for a horse, I like I tend to track horses in or around those results. Buveur D’airs maiden hurdle in Newbury is an example so Irving through Apples Jade, taking into consideration improvements in my own mind, means something to me. It’s my way of sussing out where they stand and I find it works for me.

Regarding Faugheen, in no way do I mean to be disrespectful to him. I have great admiration for him. I backed him in his first bumper win and throughout his novice season and indeed his champion hurdle win. I acknowledge his ICH win was phenomenal , but that was 2 years ago and in between then and now there’s been a run of different serious & small nigilly injuries. I feel there are questions about the Morgiana form with Jezki & Swamp fox. Don’t ask me to put a figure on it because that’s not what I do but Swamp Fox was tailed off again Sunday and Jezki is very questionable. He now tends to win his first race and go downhill after that. So if Newcastle is meaningless surely Punchestown gets similar treatment?

Also I acknowledge that BD is going to have to improve to beat Faugheen but I’m in ansolute no doubt he will. By the handicappers official rating he has 3L to make up on him and thats with three quarters of last season over fences.

In my mind I can’t for the life of me see Faugheen improving again great & all as he is, but I most certainly can see BD improve another few pounds with a full season hurdling and with Kempton at Xmas and possibly the Kingwell to come as well. I’ve come to this conclusion by my own methods, methods like split screening, timing, visuals, angles through form lines or trying to read between the lines of trainer/jockeys comments.

Buveur D’Air mightn’t get the chance in the UK to even put up a performance as to what somebody might think is a 174 or 175 rating until March, firstly because the opposition is poor and that’ll be taken into consideration, and secondly because Geraghty just tends to take it handy on him and give him just the inch of rain in comparison to Faugheen who’s allowed stride out in front and bowl on. That’s where the numbers game can fail if you ask me. How can you put an official figure on something like Saturday when a horse is in 2nd gear and capable of much more or Sandown last Feb. If he was allowed to win by 20L how much do you bump him up by then? It’s inconclusive.

These methods above have worked for me before to much reward before with recent examples of Buveur D’Air, Cue Card in the King George v Vautour or last year with Willoughby Court in the Neptune so I can’t abandon them because someone puts a figure of their interpretation. At least if I’m wrong I can just blame myself.

The pity is, and this will apply to the likes of me and the number guys, is that we probably won’t get to put our theories to the test until March. Buv will **** in against nothing at Xmas, Faugheen will **** in against zilch at Leopardstown and no one will be the wiser until March.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Fine discussion, gents

I'd go higher than the 140s for BDA's Newccastle run but as Grass says it's a meaningless exercise. The horse is very talented and we saw that he is in good health.

What you both say about Faugheen is correct, that Irish Champion Hurdle win was deeply impressive and it is that race rather than anything he's done at Cheltenham which produced his peak performance. For a horse coming back from a long term injury his Morgiana win was way above anything I was expecting.

As archie's post illustrates, if the machine is back to his best BDA will need to improve but that's certainly not out of the question.
 
Last edited:
No @granger, I've not taken over @Grass account.. I know you've doubted him for a second, just want to ease your mind :lol:

@Kauto, I see you're still having difficulties with what I said about Faugheen improving. I think I've explained it in every post but here goes again, its not about improving his ability but in terms of the rating posted and about the chance of raising his because the 176 wasn't achieved against adversaries in peak form or in a race like the CH for which almost every horse runs near their best, and the handicappers hadn't had a choice but to be very conservative. The fact all rating organizations agree about it(+1 RP) tells a big story in itself because usually RP goes very high or TF goes very high with some performances. This will be his chance to improve his rating significantly if he gets there and BDair runs at his best.
 
Nope. The only two horses to lose/regain a Champion Hurdle are Comedy Of Errors and Hurricane Fly, and they only had a 1-year gap between their titles.

Basically every stat going is against Faugheen.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Anyone stats people out there, has a horse ever retained the Champion Hurdle after what would be a 3 year gap?
Click to expand...
Hurricane Fly and Comedy of Errors regained the next year after losing the title but not after a gap, so this stat is not that relevant to Faugheen but it'd be a first to regain it after 3 years.
 
Back
Top